Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers

Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers
Author: Qianying Chen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2015-04-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148434071X

We study the impact of the US quantitative easing (QE) on both the emerging and advanced economies, estimating a global vector error-correction model (GVECM) and conducting counterfactual analyses. We focus on the effects of reductions in the US term and corporate spreads. First, US QE measures reducing the US corporate spread appear to be more important than lowering the US term spread. Second, US QE measures might have prevented episodes of prolonged recession and deflation in the advanced economies. Third, the estimated effects on the emerging economies have been diverse but often larger than those recorded in the US and other advanced economies. The heterogeneous effects from US QE measures indicate unevenly distributed benefits and costs.

Rules for International Monetary Stability

Rules for International Monetary Stability
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: Hoover Press
Total Pages: 381
Release: 2017-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0817920560

Since the end of the Great Recession in 2009 the central banks of the advanced countries have taken unprecedented actions to reflate and stimulate their economies. There have been significant differences in the timing and pace of these actions. These independent monetary policy actions have had significant spillover effects on the economies and monetary policy strategies of other advanced countries. In addition the monetary policy actions and interventions of the advanced countries have had a significant impact on the emerging market economies leading to the charge of 'currency wars.' The perceived negative consequences of spillovers from the actions of national central banks has led to calls for international monetary policy coordination. The arguments for coordination based on game theory are the same today as back in the 1980s, which led to accords which required that participant countries follow policies to improve global welfare at the expense of domestic fundamentals. This led to disastrous consequences. An alternative approach to the international spillovers of national monetary policy actions is to view them as deviations from rules based monetary policy. In this view a return to rules based monetary policy and a rolling back of the " global great deviation" by each country's central bank would lead to a beneficial policy outcome without the need for explicit policy coordination. In this book we report the results from a recent conference which brought together academics, market participants, and policy makers to focus on these issues. The consensus of much of the conference was on the need for a classic rules based reform of the international monetary system.

Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies

Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies
Author: Camila Casas
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2017-11-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484330609

Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.

International Capital Flows

International Capital Flows
Author: Martin Feldstein
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 500
Release: 2007-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226241807

Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 663
Release: 2010-03-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226278875

United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.

International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks

International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks
Author: Callum Jones
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2018-05-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484353552

After 2007, countries that cut their policy interest rates close to zero turned, among other policies, to forward guidance. We estimate a two-country model of the U.S. and Canada to quantify how unexpected changes in U.S. forward guidance affected Canada. Expansionary U.S. forward guidance shocks, like conventional policy shocks, are beggar-thy-neighbor and depress Canadian output, but by twice as much as conventional shocks. We find that the effect of U.S. forward guidance shocks on Canadian output, unlike conventional policy shocks, depends on the state of U.S. demand and can be five times smaller when U.S. demand is weak.

The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions

The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions
Author: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2002
Genre: Banks and Banking
ISBN: 9780894991967

Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.

Monetary Stability as a Common Concern in International Law

Monetary Stability as a Common Concern in International Law
Author: Lucía Satragno
Publisher: BRILL
Total Pages: 225
Release: 2022-02-28
Genre: Law
ISBN: 9004508732

The open access publication of this book has been published with the support of the Swiss National Science Foundation. In Monetary Stability as a Common Concern in International Law, Lucía Satragno argues that monetary stability is a global public good that must be promoted and protected at all levels of governance. In doing so, the book accomplishes two tasks. On one hand, it provides an up to date analysis of the role of law and institutions in the international monetary field since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. On the other hand, it applies the methodological approach proposed by the novel doctrine of Common Concern of Humankind to monetary stability as a case study. Accordingly, the book examines not only the status quo of the international monetary system, but also looks at the ‘new and different realism’ that would be envisaged in monetary affairs in the case of a fully-fledged principle of Common Concern.

Central Banking in Theory and Practice

Central Banking in Theory and Practice
Author: Alan S. Blinder
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 116
Release: 1999-01-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262522601

Alan S. Blinder offers the dual perspective of a leading academic macroeconomist who served a stint as Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board—one who practiced what he had long preached and then returned to academia to write about it. He tells central bankers how they might better incorporate academic knowledge and thinking into the conduct of monetary policy, and he tells scholars how they might reorient their research to be more attuned to reality and thus more useful to central bankers. Based on the 1996 Lionel Robbins Lectures, this readable book deals succinctly, in a nontechnical manner, with a wide variety of issues in monetary policy. The book also includes the author's suggested solution to an age-old problem in monetary theory: what it means for monetary policy to be "neutral."

Emerging Market Volatility

Emerging Market Volatility
Author: Ms.Ratna Sahay
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2014-10-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484356004

Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.