Have Institutional Investors Destabilized Emerging Markets?

Have Institutional Investors Destabilized Emerging Markets?
Author: Mr.Brian J. Aitken
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 1996-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145197888X

In the past few years there has been a large increase in portfolio capital flows into emerging markets, mostly fueled by mutual funds and other institutional investors. Based on a simple variance ratio test, this paper finds that emerging stock markets as a group experienced a sharp increase in autocorrelation in total returns at a time when institutional investors began to significantly expand their holdings in these markets. These results are consistent with the view that institutional investor sentiment toward emerging markets as an asset class can at times play a critical role in determining asset prices, with shifts in sentiment resulting in periods of bubble-like booms and busts and asset price overshooting.

Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets

Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets
Author: Mahmood Pradhan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2011-04-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1463935129

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
Author: Mr.Eugenio Cerutti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2015-06-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513526634

This paper analyzes the behavior of gross capital inflows across 34 emerging markets (EMs). We first confirm that aggregate inflows to EMs co-move considerably. We then report three findings: (i) the aggregate co-movement conceals significant heterogeneity across asset types as only bank-related and portfolio bond and equity inflows do co-move; (ii) while global push factors in advanced economies mostly explain the common dynamics, their relative importance varies by type of flow; and (iii) the sensitivity to common dynamics varies significantly across borrower countries, with market structure characteristics (especially the composition of the foreign investor base and the level of liquidity) rather than borrower country’s institutional fundamentals strongly affecting sensitivities. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are found to be more sensitive to push factors. Our findings suggest that EMs need to closely monitor their lenders and investors to assess their inflow exposures to global push factors.

International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey

International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey
Author: Mr.R. Gelos
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2011-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455253316

Gaining a better understanding of the behavior of international investors is key for informing the debate about the optimal response to capital flows and about reforms to the international financial architecture. In this context, recent research on the behavior of international mutual funds at the micro level has expanded our knowledge about the drivers of portfolio flows and the mechanisms behind the transmission of financial shocks across countries. This paper provides a brief survey of this literature, with a focus on the empirical evidence for emerging markets. Overall, the behavior of international mutual funds is complex and overly simplistic characterizations are misleading. However, there is broad-based evidence for momentum trading among funds. Moreover, funds tend to avoid opaque markets and assets, and this behavior becomes more pronounced during volatile times. Portfolio rebalancing mechanisms are clearly important in explaining contagion patterns, even in the absence of common macroeconomic fundamentals. From a surveillance point of view, this implies that monitoring the exposures of large investors at a micro level is crucial to assess vulnerabilities.

Mutual Fund Investment in Emerging Markets

Mutual Fund Investment in Emerging Markets
Author: Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 44
Release: 1999
Genre:
ISBN:

January 2001 How do mutual funds behave when they invest in emerging economies? For one thing, mutual funds' flows are not stable. Withdrawals from emerging markets during recent crises were large, which squares with existing evidence of financial contagion. International mutual funds are one of the main channels for capital flows to emerging economies. Although mutual funds have become important contributors to financial market integration, little is known about their investment allocation and strategies. Kaminsky, Lyons, and Schmukler provide an overview of mutual fund activity in emerging markets. First, they describe international mutual funds' relative size, asset allocation, and country allocation. Second, they focus on fund behavior during crises, by analyzing data at the level of both investors and fund managers. Among their findings: Equity investment in emerging markets has grown rapidly in the 1990s, much of it flowing through mutual funds. Collectively, these funds hold a sizable share of market capitalization in emerging economies. Asian and Latin American funds achieved the fastest growth, but are smaller than domestic U.S. funds and world funds. When investing abroad, U.S. mutual funds invest more in equity than in bonds. World funds invest mainly in developed nations (Canada, Europe, Japan, and the United States). Ten percent of their investment is in Asia and Latin America. Mutual funds usually invest in a few countries within each region. Mutual fund investment was very responsive to the crises of the 1990s. Withdrawals from emerging markets during recent crises were large, which squares with existing evidence of financial contagion. Investments in Asian and Latin American mutual funds are volatile. Because redemptions and injections are large relative to total funds under management, funds' flows are not stable. The cash held by managers during injections and redemptions does not fluctuate significantly, so investors' actions are typically reflected in emerging market inflows and outflows. This paper--a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the operation of financial markets and the effects of financial globalization. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project "Mutual Funds in Emerging Markets." The authors may be contacted at [email protected], lyons@haas. berkeley.edu, or [email protected].

The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets

The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets
Author: Maria Sole Pagliari
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 58
Release: 2017-03-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 147558525X

Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.

Corporate Governance and Capital Flows in a Global Economy

Corporate Governance and Capital Flows in a Global Economy
Author: Peter Cornelius
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 527
Release: 2003
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0195167058

With global financial markets having become more integrated, the book pays particular attention to the role of corporate governance in emerging-market economies and international capital flows. Rich in facts and ideas, the book is for anyone interested in financial crises, international risk management and global competitiveness.