Inflation Uncertainty Monetary Shocks And Economic Growth
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Author | : Peter J. N. Sinclair |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 402 |
Release | : 2009-12-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1135179778 |
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author | : Michael D. Bordo |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 545 |
Release | : 2013-06-28 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226066959 |
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Author | : Jordi Galí |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 663 |
Release | : 2010-03-15 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226278875 |
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Author | : Sangyup Choi |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 26 |
Release | : 2015-02-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498356303 |
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author | : Mr.Rudolfs Bems |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 31 |
Release | : 2018-12-11 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 148439223X |
Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
Author | : H.M. Blalock |
Publisher | : Academic Press |
Total Pages | : 656 |
Release | : 2013-10-22 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 1483288188 |
Quantitative Sociology: International Perspective on Mathematical and Statistical Modeling presents diverse mathematical modeling procedures involving different strategies for understanding sociology. This book is organized into three parts encompassing 22 chapters that also describe meta-mathematical models suggesting general ways of conceptualizing or expressing phenomena in mathematical or logical languages. Part I deals with the diachronic process analysis, causation of conditional probabilities, and graph-theoretical formulations. Part II highlights the different fields of applied statistics, including experimental designs, survey sampling and panel designs, multivariate analysis, econometrics, multiple classification analysis, and other approaches to data analysis and measurement. This part also treats the elimination of distortions or artifacts of various kinds, such as sampling errors or biases stemming from faulty designs, measurement errors, or incorrectly specified equations. Part III explores other mathematical models for a deductive or semideductive system containing axioms, definitions, and theorems that may then be examined both in terms of internal consistency using mathematical reasoning and their ability to explain real-world phenomena. This book is of value to sociologists, applied and statistical mathematicians, and researchers.
Author | : Martin Feldstein |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 374 |
Release | : 2007-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226241769 |
In recent years, the Federal Reserve and central banks worldwide have enjoyed remarkable success in their battle against inflation. The challenge now confronting the Fed and its counterparts is how to proceed in this newly benign economic environment: Should monetary policy seek to maintain a rate of low-level inflation or eliminate inflation altogether in an effort to attain full price stability? In a seminal article published in 1997, Martin Feldstein developed a framework for calculating the gains in economic welfare that might result from a move from a low level of inflation to full price stability. The present volume extends that analysis, focusing on the likely costs and benefits of achieving price stability not only in the United States, but in Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom as well. The results show that even small changes in already low inflation rates can have a substantial impact on the economic performance of different countries, and that variations in national tax rules can affect the level of gain from disinflation.
Author | : Mark Gertler |
Publisher | : MIT Press |
Total Pages | : 436 |
Release | : 2004 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780262572217 |
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.
Author | : Charles Freedman |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 27 |
Release | : 2009-04-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 145187233X |
This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.
Author | : Mohammed El Hedi Arouri |
Publisher | : Academic Press |
Total Pages | : 927 |
Release | : 2013-12-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0124115632 |
Emerging Markets and the Global Economy investigates analytical techniques suited to emerging market economies, which are typically prone to policy shocks. Despite the large body of emerging market finance literature, their underlying dynamics and interactions with other economies remain challenging and mysterious because standard financial models measure them imprecisely. Describing the linkages between emerging and developed markets, this collection systematically explores several crucial issues in asset valuation and risk management. Contributors present new theoretical constructions and empirical methods for handling cross-country volatility and sudden regime shifts. Usually attractive for investors because of the superior growth they can deliver, emerging markets can have a low correlation with developed markets. This collection advances your knowledge about their inherent characteristics. Foreword by Ali M. Kutan - Concentrates on post-crisis roles of emerging markets in the global economy - Reports on key theoretical and technical developments in emerging financial markets - Forecasts future developments in linkages among developed and emerging economies