Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession

Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession
Author: Laurence M. Ball
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 58
Release: 2011-06-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455263389

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle
Author: Mr.Troy Matheson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 12
Release: 2013-05-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484334728

Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s. Using a non-linear Kalman filter that allows for time-varying parameters, we find that three factors have contributed to the observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the Phillips curve has flattened; and the importance of import-price inflation has increased.

Potential Output and Inflation Dynamics After the Great Recession

Potential Output and Inflation Dynamics After the Great Recession
Author: Yu-Fan Huang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

Ever since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of mild inflation, which contradicts with the output-inflation relationship depicted by a traditional Phillips curve. This paper examines how the permanent output loss during the Great Recession has affected the ability of the Phillips curve to explain U.S. inflation dynamics. We find great similarity among several established trend-cycle decomposition methods: potential output declined substantially after the Great Recession. Due to the fact that a lower level of potential output implies a lesser deflationary pressure, we then show that the Phillips curve does predict a period of mild inflation. This finding is largely consistent with the observed data.

Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?

Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?
Author: Stefan Laseen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2016-09-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475533845

Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this empirical paper, we use multivariate, possibly time-varying, time-series models and show that changes in shocks are a more salient feature of the data than changes in coefficients. Hence, the GFC did not break the Phillips curve. By estimating variations of a regime-switching model, we show that allowing for regime switching solely in coefficients of the policy rule would maximize the fit. Additionally, using a data-rich reduced-form model we compute conditional forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and unemployment, post-GFC.

After the Great Recession

After the Great Recession
Author: Barry Z. Cynamon
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 359
Release: 2013
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1107015898

A collection of essays about the US Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 and the subsequent stagnation from prominent scholars.

Disequilibrium

Disequilibrium
Author: Steven Ricchiuto
Publisher: Greenleaf Book Group
Total Pages: 207
Release: 2016-12-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1626343977

Who caused the Great Recession? We did. In Disequilibrium,economist Steven Ricchiuto traces how destructive changes in our economic systems have created our present unbalanced economy. He expertly shows how today’s disequilibrium between supply and demand came from decades of misguided economic policies made in response to the Great Inflation of the 1970s and 1980s. Ricchiuto then goes even further, investigating how economic forces created in the World War II era laid the groundwork for this destructive shift. Ricchiuto's timely book offers a method for assessing macro economic credit quality and suggests policy makers alter their behavior to handle new macro dynamics. Today’s economic framework cannot be counted on to protect us forever. In Disequilibrium, Ricchiuto shows us where we went wrong in the past so that we can work to get the future right.

The Great Recession and Its Effects on Monetary Policy

The Great Recession and Its Effects on Monetary Policy
Author: Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018*
Genre:
ISBN:

Monetary policy; monetary transmission mechanism; financial markets and the macroeconomy; financial accelerator; inflation dynamics; Phillips curve; inflation expectations; nonlinear unobserved component model; structural TVP-VAR; Great Recession.

The Great Recession, with a Postscript on Stagflation

The Great Recession, with a Postscript on Stagflation
Author: Otto Eckstein
Publisher: Amsterdam ; New York : North-Holland Publishing Company ; New York : distributors for the U.S. and Canada, Elsevier/North Holland, 1978, 1979 printing.
Total Pages: 232
Release: 1978
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: