Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles)

Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles)
Author: James W. Coons
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 154
Release: 2015-03-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317498658

Originally published in 1994 and the recipient of the Stonier Library Award, this volume evaluates an alternative approach – the sequential filter- to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle. The specific hypothesis is that the sequential filter can produce valuable signals of cyclical peaks and troughs in interest rates. The analysis focusses on US interest rates from April 1953 to December 1988.

Short-term Interest Rates Forecast

Short-term Interest Rates Forecast
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release:
Genre:
ISBN:

Short-term interest rates forecast refers to projected values of three-month money market rates. It is measured as a percentage. Forecast data are calculated by making an overall assessment of the economic climate in individual countries and the world economy as a whole, using a combination of model-based analyses and statistical indicator models.

The Information Content of the Short End of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

The Information Content of the Short End of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Marco Rossi
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 1998
Genre:
ISBN:

Market determined interest rates are important indicators for monetary policy since they can give a measure of market expectations of future policy. Although previous work in the Bank has estimated yield curves from gilt prices and found that these give useful information about long-term expectations, the value of such yield curves at short horizons-below two years-is open to question. This paper analyses two related questions on short-term interest rate expectations: 1. is there useful information in shorter-term interest rates and 2. are some interest rates more informative than others? In particular, it compares the relative performance of the short end of the Bank yield curve and traded LIMEAN rates at various maturities.[*] Its benchmark of comparison is a practical one-it assess, ex post, how well the different measures predicted future shorter-term interest rates (eg how well six-month interest rates predict three-month interest rates in three months time). It finds that the yield curve contains some information at short horizons but that it is less reliable than the information from LIMEAN rates. This suggests that the current Bank approach of only analysing yield curves above two-year horizons and using other information to measure short-term interest rate expectations is probably correct.[*]Although interest rate futures are a widely used measure of market expectations the information they contain is not directly comparable to the yield curve.

An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length

An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 1991
Genre: Inflation (Finance)
ISBN:

It is often suggested that the slope of the term structure of interest rates contains information about the expected future path of inflation. Mishkin (1990) has recently shown that the spread between the 12-month and 3-month interest rates helps to predict the difference between the 12-month and 3-month inflation rates. His approach however, lacks a theoretical foundation, other than the (rejected) hypothesis that the real interest rate is constant. This paper applies a simple existing theoretical framework, which allows the real interest rate to vary in the short run but converge to a constant in the long run, to the problem of predicting the inflation spread. It is shown that the appropriate indicator of expected inflation can make use of the entire length of the yield curve, in particular by estimating the steepness of a specific nonlinear transformation of the curve, rather than being restricted to a spread between two points. The resulting indicator, besides having a firmer theoretical foundation does a relatively good job of predicting the inflation rate over the period 1960 to 1988.

The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions

The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions
Author: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2002
Genre: Banks and Banking
ISBN: 9780894991967

Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.

Lower for Longer

Lower for Longer
Author: Mr.Andrea Pescatori
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2015-06-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513508385

We use a semi structural model to estimate neutral rates in the United States. Our Bayesian estimation incorporates prior information on the output gap and potential output (based on a production function approach) and accounts for unconventional monetary policies at the ZLB by using estimates of “shadow” policy rates. We find that our approach provides more plausible results than standard maximum likelihood estimates for the unobserved variables in the model. Results show a significant trend decline in the neutral real rate over time, driven only in part by a decline in potential growth whereas other factors (including excess global savings) matter. Neutral rates likely turned negative during the Global Financial Crisis and are expected to increase only gradually looking forward.