Imperfect Knowledge Economics
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| Author | : Roman Frydman |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 368 |
| Release | : 2023-09-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0691261156 |
Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.
| Author | : Roman Frydman |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 374 |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780691121604 |
Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.
| Author | : G. B. Richardson |
| Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 232 |
| Release | : 1998-01-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9781782542872 |
G.B. Richardson's writings, although from 1953 to 1972, are still very relevant to modern economics. The central theme of this book of his papers is that the knowledge upon which business decisions are taken is limited and uncertain and that the availability of it is affected by market structure.
| Author | : Louis Phlips |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 302 |
| Release | : 1988 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780521313810 |
This book provides a systematic presentation of new microeconomic theories of imperfect information.
| Author | : Roman Frydman |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 304 |
| Release | : 2011-02-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1400838185 |
A powerful challenge to contemporary economics and a new agenda for global finance In the wake of the global financial crisis that began in 2007, faith in the rationality of markets has lost ground to a new faith in their irrationality. The problem, Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue, is that both the rational and behavioral theories of the market rest on the same fatal assumption—that markets act mechanically and economic change is fully predictable. In Beyond Mechanical Markets, Frydman and Goldberg show how the failure to abandon this assumption hinders our understanding of how markets work, why price swings help allocate capital to worthy companies, and what role government can and can't play. The financial crisis, Frydman and Goldberg argue, was made more likely, if not inevitable, by contemporary economic theory, yet its core tenets remain unchanged today. In response, the authors show how imperfect knowledge economics, an approach they pioneered, provides a better understanding of markets and the financial crisis. Frydman and Goldberg deliver a withering critique of the widely accepted view that the boom in equity prices that ended in 2007 was a bubble fueled by herd psychology. They argue, instead, that price swings are driven by individuals' ever-imperfect interpretations of the significance of economic fundamentals for future prices and risk. Because swings are at the heart of a dynamic economy, reforms should aim only to curb their excesses. Showing why we are being dangerously led astray by thinking of markets as predictably rational or irrational, Beyond Mechanical Markets presents a powerful challenge to conventional economic wisdom that we can't afford to ignore.
| Author | : Thomas-Olivier Leautier |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 413 |
| Release | : 2019-03-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0262039281 |
The first textbook to present a comprehensive and detailed economic analysis of electricity markets, analyzing the tensions between microeconomics and political economy. The power industry is essential in our fight against climate change. This book is the first to examine in detail the microeconomics underlying power markets, stemming from peak-load pricing, by which prices are low when the installed generation capacity exceeds demand but can rise a hundred times higher when demand is equal to installed capacity. The outcome of peak-load pricing is often difficult to accept politically, and the book explores the tensions between microeconomics and political economy. Understanding peak-load pricing and its implications is essential for designing robust policies and making sound investment decisions. Thomas-Olivier Léautier presents the model in its simplest form, and introduces additional features as different issues are presented. The book covers all segments of electricity markets: electricity generation, under perfect and imperfect competition; retail competition and demand response; transmission pricing, transmission congestion management, and transmission constraints; and the current policy issues arising from the entry of renewables into the market and capacity mechanisms. Combining anecdotes and analysis of real situations with rigorous analytical modeling, each chapter analyzes one specific issue, first presenting findings in nontechnical terms accessible to policy practitioners and graduate students in management or public policy and then presenting a more mathematical analytical exposition for students and researchers specializing in the economics of electricity markets and for those who want to understand and apply the underlying models.
| Author | : Joseph E. Stiglitz |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 722 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780262012058 |
The focus of Joseph Stiglitz's work in economics throughout his long and distinguished career has been on the real world, with all of its imperfections.
| Author | : Esteban F. Thomsen |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 159 |
| Release | : 2002-01-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1134915578 |
The growth of information economics has lead to a substantial re-consideration of the role of prices. Instead of the conventional neo-classical view of prices as straightforward indicators of scarcity, information economics emphasises that prices can be sources from which agents infer information and means by which they communicate. Prices and Knowledge analyses different theoretical approaches to the role of prices in situations of imperfect information. It shows that whilst the `informational efficiency' approach of Grossman and Stiglitz and the `bounded rationality theory' of Nelson and Simon are useful, neither goes far enough in considering situations of disequilibrium.
| Author | : Vítor Gaspar |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 160 |
| Release | : 2006-02-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9781139448567 |
Based on lectures given as part of The Stone Lectures in Economics, this book discusses the problem of formulating monetary policy in practice, under the uncertain circumstances which characterize the real world. The first lecture highlights the limitations of decision rules suggested by the academic literature and recommends an approach involving, first, a firm reliance on the few fundamental and robust results of monetary economics and, secondly, a pragmatic attitude to policy implementation, taking into consideration lessons from central banking experience. The second lecture revisits Milton Friedman's questions about the effects of active stabilization policies on business cycle fluctuations. It explores the implications of a simple model where the policy maker has imperfect knowledge about potential output and the private sector forms expectations according to adaptive learning. This lecture shows that imperfect knowledge limits the scope for active stabilization policy and strengthens the case for conservatism.
| Author | : Olivier Blanchard |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 251 |
| Release | : 2014-08-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0262526824 |
Prominent economists reconsider the fundamentals of economic policy for a post-crisis world. In 2011, the International Monetary Fund invited prominent economists and economic policymakers to consider the brave new world of the post-crisis global economy. The result is a book that captures the state of macroeconomic thinking at a transformational moment. The crisis and the weak recovery that has followed raise fundamental questions concerning macroeconomics and economic policy. These top economists discuss future directions for monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial regulation, capital-account management, growth strategies, the international monetary system, and the economic models that should underpin thinking about critical policy choices. Contributors Olivier Blanchard, Ricardo Caballero, Charles Collyns, Arminio Fraga, Már Guðmundsson, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Otmar Issing, Olivier Jeanne, Rakesh Mohan, Maurice Obstfeld, José Antonio Ocampo, Guillermo Ortiz, Y. V. Reddy, Dani Rodrik, David Romer, Paul Romer, Andrew Sheng, Hyun Song Shin, Parthasarathi Shome, Robert Solow, Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, Adair Turner
