Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia

Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia
Author: Mr.Michael Kumhof
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2003-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451851049

This paper provides a monetary model with nominal rigidities that differs from the conventional New Keynesian model with firms setting pricing policies instead of price levels. In response to permanent or highly persistent monetary policy shocks this model generates the empirically observed slow (inertial) and prolonged (persistent) reaction of the inflation rate, and also the recession that typically accompanies moderate disinflations. The reason is that firms respond to such shocks mostly through a change in the long-run or inflation updating component of their pricing policies. With staggered pricing policies there is a time lag before this is reflected in aggregate inflation.

Contacts, Credibility and Common Knowledge

Contacts, Credibility and Common Knowledge
Author: Marcus Miller
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 1992-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

In this paper three possible reasons are examined for a sluggish inflation response to a hard currency peg. Models of overlapping wage contracts are analyzed and shown to generate little inertia. This contrasts with the effects of government credibility and the speed of private sector learning, which are shown to have a major impact on the speed of inflation adjustment. But even if individual agents believe the government will not devalue, it is shown that inflation inertia can still arise if these expectations are not common knowledge.

Inflation Persistence, Backward-Looking Firms, and Monetary Policy in an Input-Output Economy

Inflation Persistence, Backward-Looking Firms, and Monetary Policy in an Input-Output Economy
Author: Brad E. Strum
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2011-04
Genre: Reference
ISBN: 1437980236

This paper studies the implications of inflation persistence (generated by backward-looking price setters) for monetary policy in a New Keynesian "input-output" model -- a model with sticky prices in both intermediate and final goods sectors. Optimal policy under commitment depends on the degree of inflation persistence in both sectors. Under discretion, speed-limit targeting -- targeting the change in the output gap -- outperforms price-level and inflation targeting in the presence of inflation persistence. If inflation persistence is low in the intermediate goods sector, price-level targeting outperforms in inflation targeting despite high inflation persistence in the final goods sector. Illus. This is a print on demand edition of an important, hard-to-find publication.

Inflation Since World War Ii Persistence, Credibility and Stability

Inflation Since World War Ii Persistence, Credibility and Stability
Author: Ning Zeng
Publisher:
Total Pages: 96
Release: 2014-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781909757318

This book addresses inflation persistence, monetary credibility and stability through modelling US macroeconomic and financial data in the post-war period. First, an ARFIMA-EGARCH model is used to generate estimations capturing the stylized facts of inflation dynamics and examine the links between the inflation rate, volatility and inflation persistence. Then a modified and reduced form of accelerationist Phillips curve is employed to analyse the inflation-unemployment trade-off and thus assess monetary policy credibility. Finally, a conditional constant correlation bivariate EGARCH-in-mean model is used to investigate interactions among inflation rates, stock returns and their respective volatilities. Results provide new evidence that inflation and its volatility are involved in more active interactions in a high inflation environment, whereas less or little related when the inflation rate is lower. The core findings also suggest that the degree of inflation persistence is a reliable measure of monetary credibility. Moreover, promoting monetary stability contributes to more mutual interactions between inflation rates, stock returns and their respective volatilities. In particular, common stock is a more effective hedge against inflation, and the level of the inflation rate is central to explaining the relation between the two volatilities.