Impacts Of Debt Maturity And Stochastic Correlation On Portfolios Of Financial Guarantees
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Author | : Van Son Lai |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 30 |
Release | : 2008 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9782895243182 |
This paper studies the effects of maturity, assets? risks and time-varying correlations on pricing portfolios of financial guarantees. In the spirit of Froot and Stein (1998), Merton and Perold (1993) and the practice of capital at risk, we analyze the inter-temporal risk management practice of a risk averse guarantor. Since it has been long recognized in the credit risk literature that correlations change with economic cycles, we analyse explicitly these phenomenon by means of a one factor Gaussian copula stochastic correlation model. To achieve our objective, we propose an extended contingent claims analysis model that incorporates (i) bankruptcy occurrence induced by a barrier à la Black and Cox (1976); (ii) the pricing of the guarantee takes into account the unexpected losses; and (iii) the insurer is averse to risk with disutility proportional to the square of the unexpected losses. Our simulations results show that constant correlations lead to undervaluation of the guarantee contract since it understates the losses, which can affect the insuring capacity of the insurer, especially for longer maturity debts. We also show how depending on the loans maturity, the portfolio unexpected loss does not necessarily increase with the assets risk. Moreover, the utility of the guarantor indicates the existence of an optimal average maturity for the loans composing the portfolio.
Author | : Issouf Soumaré |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 43 |
Release | : 2015 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
This paper analyses the effects of the maturities of credit-enhanced debt contracts on the value of an insurer's loan guarantee portfolios. We propose a contingent-claims model, that not only includes important features such as coupon payments and absolute priority violations, but also allows for stochastic interest rate and stochastic assets volatility. This is a first attempt at modelling multiple maturities in the context of portfolios of loan guarantees. We consider loan guarantees for projects that run either in parallel or in sequence. Our results indicate that in the case of insuring the debts of two parallel projects with different specific risks, one high-risk and the other low-risk, the trade-off between maturities of the guarantees increases with the projects' expected losses, hence the maturity choice decision is crucial for portfolios subject to high expected losses. For a two sequential projects loan guarantee portfolio, we find that, regardless of the order of execution of the projects, it is the maturity of the debt supporting the high-risk project which drives the risk exposure of the portfolio.
Author | : Thordur Jonasson |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 133 |
Release | : 2018-04-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484350545 |
This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Author | : M. Ayhan Kose |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 403 |
Release | : 2021-03-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464815453 |
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author | : Timothy Irwin |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 230 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0821368591 |
The book considers when governments should give guarantees to private investors. After describing the history of guarantees, and the challenges the politics and psychology create for good decisions, the book sets out a principles for allocating risk (and therefore guarantees), techniques for valuing guarantees, and rules to encourage good decisions.
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 39 |
Release | : 2003-09-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 149832892X |
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 327 |
Release | : 2003-06-25 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1589060601 |
This Guide provides clear, up-to-date guidance on the concepts, definitions, and classifications of the gross external debt of the public and private sectors, and on the sources, compilation techniques, and analytical uses of these data. The Guide supersedes the previous international guidance on external debt statistics available in External Debt: Definition, Statistical Coverage, and Methodology (known as the Gray Book), 1988. The Guides conceptual framework derives from the System of National Accounts 1993 and the fifth edition of the IMFs Balance of Payments Manual(1993). Preparation of the Guide was undertaken by an Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics, chaired by the IMF and involving representatives from the BIS, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, the OECD, the Paris Club Secretariat, UNCTAD, and the World Bank.
Author | : |
Publisher | : Lulu.com |
Total Pages | : 294 |
Release | : 2004 |
Genre | : Bank capital |
ISBN | : 9291316695 |
Author | : Mr.Udaibir S. Das |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 128 |
Release | : 2012-08-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475505531 |
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 160 |
Release | : 2013-04-17 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475589581 |
The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.