Impact of Currency Futures on Spot Market Volatility in Indian Foreign Exchange Market

Impact of Currency Futures on Spot Market Volatility in Indian Foreign Exchange Market
Author: Dr. Govind Patra
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

This work is an endeavor to explore the relationship of Lag between future & underlying market, ie. Spot in foreign exchange market of India. Only the USD/INR exchange rate is considered for the study for the presented work. This study is comprised of both analytical and empirical. The daily exchange rates of US Dollar and Indian Rupee (INR) were collected over some time from 30th January 2015 up to 23rd November 2020. The presented study has been worked out in four phases. First is to get (Augmented Dickey-Fuller), unit root and stationarity tests PP (i.e., Philips- Perron) & Kwiatkowski Phillips Schmidt-Shin) is being applied to check time series data stationarity. Second, to get cointegration between the futures and spot market tests (Johansen's Cointegration Test) was used. Granger Causality and Vector error correction models are used to get the lag relationship between futures and spot markets. The results depict the long-run relationship between the spot market and futures market, and the futures market is seen as leading in the empirical analysis of this paper. From the perspective of Investors, hedgers, and Policy Maker, Currency Futures has more helpful information to work further.

Impact of Derivative Trading on Currency Market Volatility in India

Impact of Derivative Trading on Currency Market Volatility in India
Author: Saurabh Singh
Publisher:
Total Pages: 13
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

The paper is aimed at examining the impact of introduction of currency derivatives on exchange rate volatility of Euro. The data used in this paper comprises of daily exchange rate of Euro in terms of Indian rupees for the sample period April 2006 to December 2014. To explore the time series properties Unit Root Test have been employed and to study the impact on underlying volatility GARCH (1, 1) model has been employed. The results indicate that the introduction of currency futures trading has helped in reducing the exchange rate volatility of the foreign exchange market in India. Further, the results are also indicative of the fact that the importance of recent news on spot market volatility has increased and the persistence effect of old news has declined with the introduction of currency futures trading.

A Study of Currency Market Volatility in India During Its Pre and Post Derivative Period

A Study of Currency Market Volatility in India During Its Pre and Post Derivative Period
Author: Saurabh Singh
Publisher:
Total Pages: 17
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

The paper is aimed at examining the impact of introduction of currency derivatives on exchange rate volatility of Pound. The data used in this paper comprises of daily exchange rate of Pound in terms of Indian rupees for the sample period April 2006 to December 2013. To explore the time series properties Unit Root Test and ARCH LM test have been employed and to study the impact on underlying volatility GARCH (1, 1) model has been employed. The results indicate that the introduction of currency futures trading has helped in reducing the exchange rate volatility of the foreign exchange market in India. Further, the results are also indicative of the fact that the importance of recent news on spot market volatility has decreased and the persistence effect of old news has declined with the introduction of currency futures trading.

Currency Futures and Its Impact on the Volatility of Spot Prices

Currency Futures and Its Impact on the Volatility of Spot Prices
Author: CA. (Dr.) Hemlata Chelawat
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

This study examines the impact of introduction of currency futures on spot market volatility in India and studies whether introduction of currency futures has significant impact on volatility of spot prices in India.

Does the Introduction of Futures on Emerging Market Currencies Destabilize the Underlying Currencies?

Does the Introduction of Futures on Emerging Market Currencies Destabilize the Underlying Currencies?
Author: Ms.Laura E. Kodres
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 1998-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145184297X

Recent interest in futures contracts on emerging market currencies has raised concerns among some central bank authorities about their ability to maintain stable currencies. This paper presents empirical results examining the influence of the Mexican peso, the Brazilian real, and the Hungarian forint futures contracts on the respective spot markets. While measures of linear dependence and feedback indicate strong connections between the respective markets, futures volatility does not significantly explain spot market volatility, nor does it increase after futures introductions. To account for the characteristics of the spot and futures returns a SWARCH model has been employed to estimate volatility.

Volatility of Exchange Rates in Spot and Futures Markets

Volatility of Exchange Rates in Spot and Futures Markets
Author: Sallem Koubida
Publisher:
Total Pages: 132
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation investigates conditional volatility in both spot and futures markets. We examine two approaches in spot market. While A parametric approach is the subject of the second chapter, the third chapter focuses on a nonparametric approach. In futures currency markets, we develop a model to identify the origin of conditional volatility using different type of traders. First, we focus on developing currency markets to explore if the conditional volatility in these markets have characteristics particular to themselves and to what extent these foreign exchange markets (Forex) share the characteristics of the developed markets using parametric models. Therefore, this paper examines weather the statistical models best suited for forecasting volatility of currencies from the high income countries also perform best in forecast of volatility of currencies from emerging market countries. Second, this study aims to forecast the conditional variance of exchange rates in developing countries using a non-parametric kernel smoothing technique with three different kernels: Gaussian, Epanechnikov, and Quartic. The evaluation of the predictive ability based on Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Mean Absolute Percent Error to forecast 1, 5, and 22 days into the future shows that Gaussian distribution performs the best in short horizon while the other distributions converge to the same outcome as normal distribution in longer horizon. Finally, we try to identify what group of traders (hedgers or speculators) contributes more to the price volatility in currency futures markets. We control for both expected and unexpected trading volume and open interest to estimate the effect of traders' positions on the price volatility of currency futures. We find that short positions have significant associations with the volatility of futures prices. Further, the expected effect of short positions by speculators tends to have a larger effect than the expected effect of short positions by hedgers on volatility while the unexpected effect of short position by hedgers is likely to have a larger effect than the unexpected effect of short positions by speculators.

Effect of Futures Trading on Spot Market Volatility

Effect of Futures Trading on Spot Market Volatility
Author: Brajesh Kumar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

This study investigates the relationship between futures trading activity and spot market volatility for agricultural, metal, precious metals and energy commodities in Indian commodity derivatives market. This article contributes to the debate whether the futures trading in Indian commodity futures market stabilizes or destabilizes spot market. We explore this issue by modeling contemporaneous as well as dynamic relationship between spot volatility and futures trading activity including trading volume (speculative/day trading) and open interest (hedging). Following Bessembinder and Senguin (1992), we examine contemporaneous relationship through augmented GARCH model in which spot volatility is modeled as GARCH (1,1) process and trading activity is used as explanatory variable. We also decompose futures trading volume and open interest series into expected and unexpected component. The lead-lag relationship between spot price volatility and futures trading volume and open interest is investigated through VAR model. Granger causality tests, forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response function are used to understand the dynamic relationship between these variables. We found that both expected and unexpected futures trading volume affects contemporaneous spot volatility positively. However, in case of agricultural commodities only unexpected volume affects the contemporaneous spot volatility. Granger causality tests, forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response function confirm that the lagged unexpected volatility causes spot price volatility for all commodities. The effect of speculative/day trading activity measured by trading volume on spot market volatility is positive. However, hedging activity measured by open interest does not show significant effect on spot market volatility. We do not find any effect of spot volatility on futures trading activity for most of the commodities.

Currency Risk Management

Currency Risk Management
Author: G. V. Satya Sekhar
Publisher: Vernon Press
Total Pages: 141
Release: 2019-08-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1622734432

Currency Risk Management (CRM) is vital for any business engaging in international trade. Fluctuations and uncertainty within currency markets mean that businesses must seek to effectively manage and anticipate potential risks when striking international deals. In a rapidly changing and volatile global business environment, CRM is now more than ever of critical importance. However, what risks should businesses hedge – and how? With so many viable strategies for hedging currency exchange risk, it is crucial that businesses either outsource or have a specialized team to ensure effective and efficient management of currency exchange risks. But how does CRM operate in an emerging market? And what are the key factors that influence the chosen CRM strategies? Organized in association with Indian Bank, GITAM’s national conference on CRM sought to highlight the trends, problems, and prospects of CRM in India. Taken from the conference proceedings, this book presents 9 innovative research papers that consider differing CRM practices. From a comparative study of India and China to an assessment of CRM strategies used by commercial Indian banks, this book offers an invaluable insight into CRM from the perspective of an emerging market. As a whole, this book addresses India’s shift to a market-determined exchange rate regime and the inevitable problems caused the by the high volatility of exchange rates. Aimed at students enrolled in commerce and management courses, this collection of research papers will also be of interest to researchers in international finance.

Unbiasedness and Risk Premiums in the Indian Currency Futures Market

Unbiasedness and Risk Premiums in the Indian Currency Futures Market
Author: Satish Kumar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper explores the relationship between currency futures and realized spot rates for the Indian rupee US dollar exchange rate. Using futures contracts with maturities of one, two and three months, we examine the unbiasedness of futures quotes as a predictor of the spot exchange rate as well as the nature of time-varying risk premiums in this emerging market. Empirical estimates, obtained using monthly data, suggest that there is a significant time-varying risk premium in the considered futures market. We also find that the premium is of greater magnitude and more significant with increasing maturity of the futures contracts. We also examine the relationship between realized risk premiums and explanatory variables such as the spot rate, basis and realized volatility, skewness and kurtosis of the spot exchange rate. Our results show that the level of the spot rate as well as its realized volatility can be considered as significant determinants of realized risk premiums in the considered futures market.