Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis
Author: Matthew E. Kahn
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2019-10-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513514598

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.

Shock Waves

Shock Waves
Author: Stephane Hallegatte
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 227
Release: 2015-11-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464806748

Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.

Warming the World

Warming the World
Author: William D. Nordhaus
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 258
Release: 2003-08-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262640541

This book presents in detail a pair of models of the economics of climate change. The models, called RICE-99 (for the Regional Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) and DICE-99 (for the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy) build on the authors' earlier work, particularly their RICE and DICE models of the early 1990s. Humanity is risking the health of the natural environment through a myriad of interventions, including the atmospheric emission of trace gases such as carbon dioxide, the use of ozone-depleting chemicals, the engineering of massive land-use changes, and the destruction of the habitats of many species. It is imperative that we learn to protect our common geophysical and biological resources. Although scientists have studied greenhouse warming for decades, it is only recently that society has begun to consider the economic, political, and institutional aspects of environmental intervention. To do so raises formidable challenges of data modeling, uncertainty, international coordination, and institutional design. Attempts to deal with complex scientific and economic issues have increasingly involved the use of models to help analysts and decision makers understand likely future outcomes as well as the implications of alternative policies. This book presents in detail a pair of models of the economics of climate change. The models, called RICE-99 (for the Regional Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) and DICE-99 (for the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy) build on the authors' earlier work, particularly their RICE and DICE models of the early 1990s. They can help policy makers design better economic and environmental policies.

Valuing Climate Damages

Valuing Climate Damages
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 281
Release: 2017-06-23
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0309454204

The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages - that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive - from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Under Executive Orders regarding regulatory impact analysis and as required by a court ruling, the U.S. government has since 2008 used estimates of the SC-CO2 in federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits associated with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth systems. Valuing Climate Changes examines potential approaches, along with their relative merits and challenges, for a comprehensive update to the current methodology. This publication also recommends near- and longer-term research priorities to ensure that the SC- CO2 estimates reflect the best available science.

Greening the North

Greening the North
Author: Wolfgang Sachs
Publisher: Zed Books
Total Pages: 272
Release: 1998-04-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781856495080

This text presents an analysis and proposals for managing the transition to environmental sustainability in industrial countries. The concept of "environmental space" and its development of indicators for measuring an economy's national and global impact give the text potential political impact.

Economic Growth and Environmental Quality

Economic Growth and Environmental Quality
Author: Nemat Shafik
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 55
Release: 1992
Genre: Crecimiento economico
ISBN:

It is possible to "grow out of" some environmental problems, but there is nothing automatic about doing so. Action tends to be taken where there are generalized local costs and substantial private and social benefit. Where the costs of environmental degredation are borne by others (by the poor or by other countries), there are few incentives to alter damaging behavior. Trade, debt, and other macroeconomic policy variables seem to have little generalized effect on the environment.

Inequality and Growth

Inequality and Growth
Author: Theo S. Eicher
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 343
Release: 2003
Genre: Economic development
ISBN: 0262050692

Essays exploring the relationship between economic growth and inequality and the implications for policy makers.

Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth

Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Total Pages: 314
Release: 2017-05-23
Genre:
ISBN: 9264273522

This report provides an assessment of how governments can generate inclusive economic growth in the short term, while making progress towards climate goals to secure sustainable long-term growth. It describes the development pathways required to meet the Paris Agreement objectives.

The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters
Author: Debarati Guha-Sapir
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 341
Release: 2013-05-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199841934

This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.