Imf Staff Papers Vol 49
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Author | : Mr.Robert P. Flood |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 166 |
Release | : 2002-04-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781589060975 |
This paper presents details of a symposium on forecasting performance I organized under the auspices of the IMF Staff Papers. The assumption that the forecaster's goal is to do as well as possible in predicting the actual outcome is sometimes questionable. ln the context of private sector forecasts, this is because the incentives for forecasters may induce them to herd rather than to reveal their true forecasts. Public sector forecasts may also be distorted, although for different reasons. Forecasts associated with IMF programs, for example, are often the result of negotiations between the IMF staff and the country authorities and are perhaps more accurately viewed as goals, or targets, rather than pure forecasts. The standard theory of time series forecasting involves a variety of components including the choice of an information set, the choice of a cost function, and the evaluation of forecasts in terms of the average costs of the forecast errors. It is generally acknowledged that by including more relevant information in the information set, one should be able to produce better forecasts.
Author | : Mr.Robert P. Flood |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 122 |
Release | : 2002-07-11 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781589061194 |
This paper explores sources of the output collapse in Russia during transition. A modified growth-accounting framework is developed that takes into account changes in factor utilization that are typical of the transition process. The results indicate that declines in factor inputs and productivity were both important determinants of the output fall. The paper analyzes the behavior of real commodity prices over the 1862–1999 progress. It also examines whether average stocks of health and education are converging across countries, and calculates the speed of their convergence using data from 84 countries for 1970–90.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 260 |
Release | : 2002-09-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781589061224 |
This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975–98. Cointegration analysis and error correction modeling are used to research two issues: (i) whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises; and (ii) whether crises lead to structural breaks in the relation between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability is found. The paper also analyzes inflation targeting in the context of the IMF-supported adjustment programs.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 250 |
Release | : 2002-11-04 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781589061231 |
This paper reports for uncovered interest parity (UIP) using daily data for 23 developing and developed countries during the crisis-strewn 1990s. UIP is a classic topic of international finance, a critical building block of most theoretical models, and a dismal empirical failure. UIP states that the interest differential is, on average, equal to the ex post exchange rate change. UIP may work differently for countries in crisis, whose exchange and interest rates both display considerably more volatility. This volatility raises the stakes for financial markets and central banks; it also may provide a more statistically powerful test for the UIP hypothesis. Policy-exploitable deviations from UIP are, therefore, a necessary condition for an interest rate defense. There is a considerable amount of heterogeneity in the results, which differ wildly by country.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 268 |
Release | : 1996-01-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451957092 |
This paper extends a standard growth model and obtains consistent panel data estimates of the growth retarding effects of military spending via its adverse impact on capital formation and resource allocation. Simulation experiments suggest that a substantial long-term “peace dividend”—in the form of higher capacity output—may result from markedly lower military expenditure levels achieved in most regions during the late 1980s, and the further military spending cuts that would be possible if global peace could be secured.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 216 |
Release | : 1998-01-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451974515 |
This paper analyzes some leading indicators of currency crises, and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, and the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 296 |
Release | : 2009-11-04 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1589069102 |
This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 288 |
Release | : 2010-03-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1589069110 |
Do highly indebted countries suffer from a debt overhang? Can debt relief foster their growth rates? To answer these important questions, this article looks at how the debt-growth relation varies with indebtedness levels, as well as with the quality of policies and institutions, in a panel of developing countries. The main findings are that, in countries with good policies and institutions, there is evidence of debt overhang when the net present value of debt rises above 20–25 percent of GDP; however, debt becomes irrelevant above 70–80 percent. In countries with bad policies and institutions, thresholds appear to be lower, but the evidence of debt overhang is weaker and we cannot rule out that debt is always irrelevant. Indeed, in such countries, as well as in countries with high indebtedness levels, investment does not depend on debt levels. The analysis suggests that not all countries are likely to profit from debt relief, and thus that a one-size-fits-all debt relief approach might not be the most appropriate one.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 292 |
Release | : 1990-01-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451973063 |
This paper analyzes macroeconomic effects of projected population aging in industrial countries. The effects of population aging are examined with a theoretical model and simulations of the IMF’s multiregion econometric model (MULTIMOD). The study highlights that an older population will consume more of aggregate disposable income, require higher government expenditure, and decrease labor supply. These effects should raise real interest rates and lower capital stock and output. Effects on current balances will depend on the relative speed and extent of aging.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 148 |
Release | : 1999-01-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451974205 |
This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.