Income Polarization in the United States

Income Polarization in the United States
Author: Ali Alichi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2016-06-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475522568

The paper uses a combination of micro-level datasets to document the rise of income polarization—what some have referred to as the “hollowing out” of the income distribution—in the United States, since the 1970s. While in the initial decades more middle-income households moved up, rather than down, the income ladder, since the turn of the current century, most of polarization has been towards lower incomes. This result is striking and in contrast with findings of other recent contributions. In addition, the paper finds evidence that, after conditioning on income and household characteristics, the marginal propensity to consume from permanent changes in income has somewhat fallen in recent years. We assess the potential impacts of these trends on private consumption. During 1998-2013, the rise in income polarization and lower marginal propensity to consume have suppressed the level of real consumption at the aggregate level, by about 31⁄2 percent—equivalent to more than one year of consumption.

World Trade in Services

World Trade in Services
Author: Mr.Prakash Loungani
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2017-03-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475589883

Using a newly constructed dataset on trade in services for 192 countries from 1970 to 2014, this paper shows that services currently constitute one-fourth of world trade and an increasingly important component of global production. A detailed analysis of patterns and stylized facts reveals that exports of services are not only gaining strong momentum and catching up with exports of goods in many countries, but they could also trigger a new wave of trade globalization. Research applications of the trade in service dataset on structural transformation, resilience, labor reallocation, and income distribution are outlined.

This Time Is Different

This Time Is Different
Author: Carmen M. Reinhart
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 513
Release: 2011-08-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691152640

An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2013

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2013
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 15
Release: 2013-03-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484376307

The Research Summaries in the March 2013 Research Bulletin discuss "Trade Finance and Its Role in the Great Trade Collapse" (JaeBin Ahn) and "Sovereign Debt: How to Track Who Is Buying and Selling It" (Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda). The Q&A looks at "Seven Questions on the Implications of Global Supply Chains for Real Effective Exchange Rates" (Rudolfs Bems). Readers can also find in this issue a listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications. The Bulletin also includes a call for papers for a research conference and information on free access to the IMF Economic Review in April.

Tax Capacity and Growth

Tax Capacity and Growth
Author: Vitor Gaspar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2016-12-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475558333

Is there a minimum tax to GDP ratio associated with a significant acceleration in the process of growth and development? We give an empirical answer to this question by investigating the existence of a tipping point in tax-to-GDP levels. We use two separate databases: a novel contemporary database covering 139 countries from 1965 to 2011 and a historical database for 30 advanced economies from 1800 to 1980. We find that the answer to the question is yes. Estimated tipping points are similar at about 123⁄4 percent of GDP. For the contemporary dataset we find that a country just above the threshold will have GDP per capita 7.5 percent larger, after 10 years. The effect is tightly estimated and economically large.

Dissecting Saving Dynamics

Dissecting Saving Dynamics
Author: Mr.Christopher Carroll
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2012-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475505698

We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the saving rate’s long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2016

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2016
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2016-04-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484316673

The IMF Research Bulletin includes listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The research summaries in this issue are “Explaining the Recent Slump in Investment” (Mathieu Bussiere, Laurent Ferrara, and Juliana Milovich) and “The Quest for Stability in the Housing Markets” (Hites Ahir). The Q&A column reviews “Seven Questions on Estimating Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Bin Grace Li, Christopher Adam, and Andrew Berg). Also included in this issue are updates on the IMF’s official journal, the IMF Economic Review, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2012

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2012
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 18
Release: 2012-03-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475598866

The research summaries in the March 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Foreign Direct Investment and the Crisis: Is This Time Different?" (by Yuko Kinoshita) and "Food Prices and Inflation" (by James P. Walsh). The Q&A covers seven questions on "Unemployment through the Prism of the Great Recession" (by Prakash Loungani). This issue also launches a new feature "Conversations with Visiting Scholars" with an interview with Tom Sargent, winner of the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Also included in this issue are details on visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers, and information on the next issue of "IMF Economic Review."

An Aging World

An Aging World
Author: Kevin G. Kinsella
Publisher: Bureau of Census
Total Pages: 194
Release: 2001
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Provides statistical information on the worldwide population of people 65 years old or older.