IMF Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update

IMF Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update
Author: Mr. Simon Black
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2023-08-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This paper provides a comprehensive global, regional, and country-level update of: (i) efficient fossil fuel prices to reflect supply and environmental costs; and (ii) subsidies implied by charging below efficient fuel prices. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $7 trillion in 2022 or 7.1 percent of GDP. Explicit subsidies (undercharging for supply costs) have more than doubled since 2020 but are still only 18 percent of the total subsidy, while nearly 60 percent is due to undercharging for global warming and local air pollution. Differences between efficient prices and retail fuel prices are large and pervasive, for example, 80 percent of global coal consumption was priced at below half of its efficient level in 2022. Full fossil fuel price reform would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to an estimated 43 percent below baseline levels in 2030 (in line with keeping global warming to 1.5-2oC), while raising revenues worth 3.6 percent of global GDP and preventing 1.6 million local air pollution deaths per year. Accompanying spreadsheets provide detailed results for 170 countries.

Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates

Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates
Author: Mr.David Coady
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2019-05-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484393171

This paper updates estimates of fossil fuel subsidies, defined as fuel consumption times the gap between existing and efficient prices (i.e., prices warranted by supply costs, environmental costs, and revenue considerations), for 191 countries. Globally, subsidies remained large at $4.7 trillion (6.3 percent of global GDP) in 2015 and are projected at $5.2 trillion (6.5 percent of GDP) in 2017. The largest subsidizers in 2015 were China ($1.4 trillion), United States ($649 billion), Russia ($551 billion), European Union ($289 billion), and India ($209 billion). About three quarters of global subsidies are due to domestic factors—energy pricing reform thus remains largely in countries’ own national interest—while coal and petroleum together account for 85 percent of global subsidies. Efficient fossil fuel pricing in 2015 would have lowered global carbon emissions by 28 percent and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46 percent, and increased government revenue by 3.8 percent of GDP.

Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies
Author: Ian Parry
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2021-09-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513595407

This paper provides a comprehensive global, regional, and country-level update of: (i) efficient fossil fuel prices to reflect their full private and social costs; and (ii) subsidies implied by mispricing fuels. The methodology improves over previous IMF analyses through more sophisticated estimation of costs and impacts of reform. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8 percent of GDP, and are expected to rise to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2025. Just 8 percent of the 2020 subsidy reflects undercharging for supply costs (explicit subsidies) and 92 percent for undercharging for environmental costs and foregone consumption taxes (implicit subsidies). Efficient fuel pricing in 2025 would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions 36 percent below baseline levels, which is in line with keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees, while raising revenues worth 3.8 percent of global GDP and preventing 0.9 million local air pollution deaths. Accompanying spreadsheets provide detailed results for 191 countries.

Energy Subsidy Reform

Energy Subsidy Reform
Author: Mr.Benedict J. Clements
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 390
Release: 2013-09-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484339169

Energy subsidies are aimed at protecting consumers, however, subsidies aggravate fiscal imbalances, crowd out priority public spending, and depress private investment, including in the energy sector. This book provides the most comprehensive estimates of energy subsidies currently available for 176 countries and an analysis of “how to do” energy subsidy reform, drawing on insights from 22 country case studies undertaken by the IMF staff and analyses carried out by other institutions.

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2021-11-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1616356154

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

The Politics of Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Their Reform

The Politics of Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Their Reform
Author: Jakob Skovgaard
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 349
Release: 2018-08-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1108416799

This comprehensive volume provides the first book-length account on the politics of fossil fuel subsidies. This title is also available as Open Access.

Upgrading Fiscal Frameworks in Asia-Pacific

Upgrading Fiscal Frameworks in Asia-Pacific
Author: Enrique Flores
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2024-09-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This paper seeks to guide the reform of fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific in the context of calls for a more active fiscal policy in a shock-prone world. It highlights that the cost of fiscal support is large and that fiscal frameworks, including fiscal rules, are being put to the test given the sharp increase in debt, high interest and weaker growth prospects. The stress is only compounded by long-term challenges like aging populations, climate change and the need to deliver on the sustainable development goals. In this context, it is timely to review the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific and seek for ways to strengthen fiscal frameworks. After the global financial crisis, fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific became more countercylical and stronger than in other regions—especially in advanced economies. The paper shows that the degree of countercyclicality has been asymetric, with larger responses during periods of weak growth, and in particular in response to large shocks—the global financial crisis and the pandemic. It highlights that responses to the pandemic were large and used a wide range of tools, and how fiscal and monetary policy complemented each as they responded to large shocks. It looks into the deterioration of debt dynamics in Asia-Pacific, as public debt has been rising persistently across most countries driven by declining growth and rising deficits—particualrly after the global financial crisis for advanced economies and after the pandemic for emerging market and low income countries. The paper reviews fiscal frameworks across Asia-Pacific, including the use of fiscal rules, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and fiscal councils. It describes the characteristics of fiscal rules, which usually focus on debt and budget balances and are set by law but tend to lack well-specified enforcement mechanism or escape clauses. It highlights that compliance with the rules has worsened following the pandemic as—in contrast with the outturns before the pandemic--Asia-Pacific countries tend to show larger deviations relative to other regions. It also shows that despite the increase adoption of medium-term fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific forward guidance has been hampered by the lack of binding targets and ex-post analysis. Moreover, they do not seem to have resulted in better macro-fiscal forecast in part due to weak capacity and enforcement, lack of integration with the annual budget, and exposure to shocks—with risk analysis mostly limited to qualitative discussions. Proposed reforms seek to implement a comprehensive, risk-based approach to public finances. They focus on strengthening the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy through credible medium-term fiscal plans, fiscal rules linked to the medium-term strategy and the annual budgets, and a stronger reliance on fiscal councils. They also emphasize the need for a broader view of the public sector as fiscal policy is being conducted through multiple channels, which requires assessing and managing vulnerabilities and a significant improvement in fiscal statistics. They also address aging and climate change by focusing on assessing large intergenerational trade-offs, reporting on long-term debt dynamics, and on green medium-term fiscal frameworks that incorporate the effects of climate change and climate policies.

The Economisation of Climate Change

The Economisation of Climate Change
Author: Jakob Skovgaard
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages:
Release: 2021-01-21
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1108605168

The effort to address climate change cuts across a wide range of non-environmental actors and policy areas, including international economic institutions such as the Group of Twenty (G20), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). These institutions do not tend to address climate change so much as an environmental issue, but as an economic one, a dynamic referred to as 'economisation'. Such economisation can have profound consequences for how environmental problems are addressed. This book explores how the G20, IMF, and OECD have addressed climate finance and fossil fuel subsidies, what factors have shaped their specific approaches, and the consequences of this economisation of climate change. Focusing on the international level, it is a valuable resource for graduate students, researchers, and policymakers in the fields of politics, political economy and environmental policy.

Highway to Hell

Highway to Hell
Author: Joëlle Gergis
Publisher: Quarterly Essay
Total Pages: 119
Release: 2024-06-03
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1743823576

What will the climate crisis mean for Australia? What is the price of our inertia? Australia is in peril. Do we truly grasp the impact of a warming planet – in particular, what it will mean for our sunburnt country? As temperatures rise, the climates of our capital cities will change. The sea will rise, and we will see increased fire and drought. In this powerful essay, Joëlle Gergis, a leading climate scientist, depicts the likely future in vivid and credible detail. Working from the science, she discusses the world's and Australia's efforts to combat climate change. She outlines how far Australia is from keeping its promises to cut emissions. She takes aim at false solutions and the folly of "adaptation" rather than curbing fossil fuel use. This is an essay about government paralysis and what is at stake for all of us. It's about getting real, in the face of an unprecedented threat. "How many disasters does it take to wake people up to the fact that Australia's climate is becoming more extreme, with today's destruction set to be dwarfed by things to come? Do people realise that adapting to climate change won't be possible in some parts of the country?" Joëlle Gergis, Highway to Hell  This essay contains correspondence relating to Quarterly Essay 93 Bad Cop from Niki Savva, Thomas Mayo, Lachlan Harris, Mark Kenny, Robert Wood, Paul Strangio, and Lech Blaine

Senegal

Senegal
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2019-01-28
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1484396294

This Selected Issues paper estimates the macroeconomic impact of these discoveries and discusses potential fiscal frameworks for managing related revenues. Pre-production investment (2019–2021) will lead to an increase in the current account deficit; however, this will be followed by a boost to exports as hydrocarbon production comes online (2022 onward). Discoveries are important but will not lead to a major transformation of the economy, with hydrocarbons expected to make up not more than 5 percent of GDP. Fiscal revenues would average about 1.5 percent of GDP over a 25-year period and about 3 percent of GDP when production peaks. Given the relatively small gains in revenue, IMF staff recommends a fiscal framework that allows for an initial drawdown of government resources to finance large up-front investment needs, followed by an appropriate target level of the non-resource primary balance which is to serve as a medium-term fiscal anchor. Issues related to managing the volatility of resource revenues are also discussed.