How To Assess The Benefits Of Nonperforming Loan Disposal In Sub Saharan Africa Using A Simple Analytical Framework
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| Author | : Irina Bunda |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 23 |
| Release | : 2021-06-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513583093 |
The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, which has hit financial systems across Africa, is likely to deteriorate banks’ balance sheets. The largest threat to banks pertains to their loan portfolios, since many borrowers have faced a sharp collapse in their income, and therefore have difficulty repaying their obligations as they come due. This could lead to a sharp increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the short to medium term.
| Author | : Luc Eyraud |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 85 |
| Release | : 2021-06-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513576518 |
Sub-Saharan African countries are facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that is likely to severely hurt credit quality and raise non-performing loans from already high levels. Banks have a critical role to play not only during the crisis by providing temporarily relief to businesses and households, but also during the recovery by supporting economic activity and facilitating the structural transformations engaged by the pandemic.
| Author | : Hippolyte Fofack |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 36 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Banks and banking |
| ISBN | : 0051110172 |
"This paper investigates the leading causes of nonperforming loans during the economic and banking crises that affected a large number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s. Empirical analysis shows a dramatic increase in these loans and extremely high credit risk, with significant differences between the CFA and non-CFA countries, and substantially higher financial costs for the latter sub-panel of countries. The results also highlight a strong causality between these loans and economic growth, real exchange rate appreciation, the real interest rate, net interest margins, and interbank loans consistent with the causality and econometric analysis, which reveal the significance of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. The dramatic increase in these loans is largely driven by macroeconomic volatility and reflects the vulnerability of undiversified African economies, which remain heavily exposed to external shocks. Simulated results show that macroeconomic stability and economic growth are associated with a declining level of nonperforming loans; whereas adverse macroeconomic shocks coupled with higher cost of capital and lower interest margins are associated with a rising scope of nonperforming loans. These results are supported by long-term estimates of nonperforming loans derived from pseudo panel-based prediction models. "--World Bank web site.
| Author | : Hippolyte L. Fofack |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2012 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper investigates the leading causes of nonperforming loans during the economic and banking crises that affected a large number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s. Empirical analysis shows a dramatic increase in these loans and extremely high credit risk, with significant differences between the CFA and non-CFA countries, and substantially higher financial costs for the latter sub-panel of countries. The results also highlight a strong causality between these loans and economic growth, real exchange rate appreciation, the real interest rate, net interest margins, and interbank loans consistent with the causality and econometric analysis, which reveal the significance of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. The dramatic increase in these loans is largely driven by macroeconomic volatility and reflects the vulnerability of undiversified African economies, which remain heavily exposed to external shocks. Simulated results show that macroeconomic stability and economic growth are associated with a declining level of nonperforming loans; whereas adverse macroeconomic shocks coupled with higher cost of capital and lower interest margins are associated with a rising scope of nonperforming loans. These results are supported by long-term estimates of nonperforming loans derived from pseudo panel-based prediction models.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 179 |
| Release | : 2024-01-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This note aims to provide guidance on the key principles and considerations underlying the design of Fund-supported programs. The note expands on the previous operational guidance notes on conditionality published over 2003-2014, incorporating lessons from the 2018-19 Review of Conditionality, and other recent key policy developments including the recommendation of the Management’s Implementation Plan in response to Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)’s report on growth and adjustment in IMF-supported programs. The note in particular highlights operational advice to (i) improve the realism of macroeconomic forecast in programs and fostering a more systematic analysis of contingency plans and risks; (ii) improve the focus, depth, implementation, and tailoring of structural conditions (SCs), with due consideration of growth effects; and (iii) help strengthen the ownership of country authorities. Designed as a comprehensive reference and primer on program design and conditionality in an accessible and transparent manner, the note refers in summary to a broad range of economic and policy considerations over the lifecycle of Fund-supported programs. As with all guidance notes, the relevant IMF Executive Board Decisions remain the primary legal authority on matters covered in this note.
| Author | : Mr.Andre O Santos |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 30 |
| Release | : 2019-05-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498314309 |
This paper analyzes the capital structure of private asset managers in which the acquisition of nonperforming loans (NPLs) is funded with Contingent Convertibles (CoCos) placed with investors. The paper develops a model based on NPL transfer prices and residual recovery rates to assess capital structures consisting of CoCos and equity. The CoCos would contain put and call options to write down losses and write up profits, respectively, arising from liquidation and restructuring procedures. The paper concludes that the protection mechanism provided by debt write-downs embedded in CoCos and the incentives to investors provided by debt write-ups could help bridge the gap between Portuguese banks’ NPL bid prices and private equity firms’ ask prices.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 302 |
| Release | : 2006-04-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1589063856 |
Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) are measures that indicate the current financial health and soundness of a country's financial institutions, and their corporate and household counterparts. FSIs include both aggregated individual institution data and indicators that are representative of the markets in which the financial institutions operate. FSIs are calculated and disseminated for the purpose of supporting macroprudential analysis--the assessment and surveillance of the strengths and vulnerabilities of financial systems--with a view to strengthening financial stability and limiting the likelihood of financial crises. Financial Soundness Indicators: Compilation Guide is intended to give guidance on the concepts, sources, and compilation and dissemination techniques underlying FSIs; to encourage the use and cross-country comparison of these data; and, thereby, to support national and international surveillance of financial systems.
| Author | : Ms.Kimberly Beaton |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 54 |
| Release | : 2017-11-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484327020 |
The high level of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the Caribbean has been, in large part, a legacy of the global financial crisis, but their persistence owes much to the weak economic recovery in the region, as well as to structural obstacles to their resolution. A comprehensive strategy is needed to address these impediments to sever the adverse feedback loops between weak economic activity and weak asset quality. This paper finds that NPLs are a drag on Caribbean growth and macro-financial links are strong: a deterioration in asset quality hinders bank lending and dampens economic activity, undermining, in turn, efforts to resolve problem loans. A multifaceted approach is needed, involving a combination of macro- economic policies to support growth and employment; strong supervisory frameworks to ensure macro-financial stability and create incentives for resolution; efforts to address informational gaps and deficiencies in insolvency and debt-enforcement frameworks; and development of markets for distressed loans. The institutional capacity constraints require coordination of reforms within the region and support from international organizations through capacity-building.
| Author | : P. Thandika Mkandawire |
| Publisher | : IDRC |
| Total Pages | : 192 |
| Release | : 2014-05-14 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 155250204X |
Our Continent, Our Future presents the emerging African perspective on this complex issue. The authors use as background their own extensive experience and a collection of 30 individual studies, 25 of which were from African economists, to summarize this African perspective and articulate a path for the future. They underscore the need to be sensitive to each country's unique history and current condition. They argue for a broader policy agenda and for a much more active role for the state within what is largely a market economy. Finally, they stress that Africa must, and can, compete in an increasingly globalized world and, perhaps most importantly, that Africans must assume the leading role in defining the continent's development agenda.
| Author | : M. Ayhan Kose |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 403 |
| Release | : 2021-03-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464815453 |
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
