Household Portfolio Allocation Over the Life Cycle

Household Portfolio Allocation Over the Life Cycle
Author: James M. Poterba
Publisher:
Total Pages: 68
Release: 1997
Genre: Age groups
ISBN:

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between age and portfolio structure for households in the US. We focus on both the probability that households of different ages own particular portfolio assets and the fraction of their net worth allocated to each asset category. We distinguish between age and cohort effects using data from the repeated cross-sections of the Federal Reserve Board's Surveys of Consumer Finances. We present two broad conclusions. First, there are important differences across asset classes in both the age-specific probabilities of asset ownership and in the portfolio shares of different assets at different ages. The notnion that all assets can be treated as identical from the standpoint of analyzing household wealth accumulation is not supported by the data. Institutional factors, asset liquidity, and evolving investor tastes must be recognized in modeling asset demand. These factors could affect analyses of overall household saving as well as the composition of this saving. Second, there are evident differences in the asset ownership probabilities of different birth cohorts. Currently, older households were more likely to hold corporate stock, and less likely to hold tax-exempt bonds, than younger households at any given age. These differences across cohorts are important to recognize when analyzing asset accumulation profiles.

Household Portfolio Allocation Over the Life Cycle

Household Portfolio Allocation Over the Life Cycle
Author: James M. Poterba
Publisher:
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between age and portfolio structure for households in the US. We focus on both the probability that households of different ages own particular portfolio assets and the fraction of their net worth allocated to each asset category. We distinguish between age and cohort effects using data from the repeated cross-sections of the Federal Reserve Board's Surveys of Consumer Finances. We present two broad conclusions. First, there are important differences across asset classes in both the age-specific probabilities of asset ownership and in the portfolio shares of different assets at different ages. The notnion that all assets can be treated as identical from the standpoint of analyzing household wealth accumulation is not supported by the data. Institutional factors, asset liquidity, and evolving investor tastes must be recognized in modeling asset demand. These factors could affect analyses of overall household saving as well as the composition of this saving. Second, there are evident differences in the asset ownership probabilities of different birth cohorts. Currently, older households were more likely to hold corporate stock, and less likely to hold tax-exempt bonds, than younger households at any given age. These differences across cohorts are important to recognize when analyzing asset accumulation profiles.

Strategic Asset Allocation

Strategic Asset Allocation
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 272
Release: 2002-01-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 019160691X

Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.

Lifecycle Investing

Lifecycle Investing
Author: Ian Ayres
Publisher: ReadHowYouWant.com
Total Pages: 358
Release: 2010-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1458758427

Diversification provides a well-known way of getting something close to a free lunch: by spreading money across different kinds of investments, investors can earn the same return with lower risk (or a much higher return for the same amount of risk). This strategy, introduced nearly fifty years ago, led to such strategies as index funds. What if we were all missing out on another free lunch that’s right under our noses? InLifecycle Investing, Barry Nalebuff and Ian Ayres-two of the most innovative thinkers in business, law, and economics-have developed tools that will allow nearly any investor to diversify their portfolios over time. By using leveraging when young-a controversial idea that sparked hate mail when the authors first floated it in the pages ofForbes-investors of all stripes, from those just starting to plan to those getting ready to retire, can substantially reduce overall risk while improving their returns. InLifecycle Investing, readers will learn How to figure out the level of exposure and leverage that’s right foryou How the Lifecycle Investing strategy would have performed in the historical market Why it will work even if everyone does it Whennotto adopt the Lifecycle Investing strategy Clearly written and backed by rigorous research,Lifecycle Investingpresents a simple but radical idea that will shake up how we think about retirement investing even as it provides a healthier nest egg in a nicely feathered nest.

Household Portfolios and Retirement Saving Over the Life Cycle

Household Portfolios and Retirement Saving Over the Life Cycle
Author: Jonathan A. Parker
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper documents the share of investable wealth that middle-class U.S. investors hold in the stock market over their working lives. This share rises modestly early in life and falls significantly as people approach retirement. Prior to 2000, the average investor held less of their investable wealth in the stock market and did not adjust this share over their working life. These changes in portfolio allocation were accelerated by the Pension Protection Act (PPA) of 2006, which allowed employers to adopt target date funds (TDFs) as default options in retirement saving plans. Young retail investors who start at an employer shortly after it adopts TDFs have higher equity shares than those who start at that same employer shortly before the change in defaults. Older investors rebalance more to safe assets. We also study retirement contribution rates over the life-cycle and find that average retirement saving rates increase steadily over the working life. In contrast to what we find for investment in the stock market, contribution rates have been stable over time and across cohorts and were not increased by the PPA.

Three Essays on Household Asset Allocation

Three Essays on Household Asset Allocation
Author: Yang Su
Publisher:
Total Pages: 114
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

With high-quality household level asset holding data becoming available as well as the exponential increase in computing power, there is a growing literature that studies how households make investment decisions facing various types of uninsurable background risks. In this dissertation, I build theoretical models and conduct empirical studies to investigate different problems on household asset allocation. In chapter 1, I build a life-cycle model of portfolio choice with endogenous labor supply and a fixed cost of labor market participation to incorporate both the extensive and intensive mar- gins of labor supply decisions. I show that the risky asset holdings of young agents (agents younger than 45-year-old) are lower when compared to a model that only incorporates the intensive margin of labor supply. The risky asset holdings of young agents are further reduced and become hump-shaped when two additional features are included to the model: 1) endogenous Social Security accumulation and 2) a small possibility of a zero-income state. These two features increase the uncertainties faced by the agents while the fixed cost of labor market participation reduces the agents's ability to use labor supply to buffer against future income uncertainties. My model therefore reduces the gap between the empirical observations on household risky asset holdings and the predictions made by life-cycle models with endogenous labor supply. In chapter 2, we build a three-period model to study asset allocation ("how much to invest") and location ("which account to use") consequences when an economic agent has internal habit formation utility and has access to both an illiquid but tax-favored retirement account and a taxable personal account. We show that the incentive to maintain high consumption relative to the habit level and the restriction of only having access to the personal account before retirement induces the agent to hold a safer portfolio in her personal account and a riskier portfolio in her retirement account, in accordance with empirical findings on retirement asset allocation. We also show that retirement asset allocation and location decisions are affected by bequest motives and employer match, providing policy implications for retirement plan designers. In chapter 3, I provide updated estimations of the age profiles of stock market participation and risky share in the United States using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). This chapter is motivated by the recent findings of Fagereng, Gottlieb, and Guiso (2017) on Norwegian data that the age profiles of stock market participation rate and risky share become closer to theoretical predictions when they employ more precise empirical strategies to identify the age, cohort and year effects, control for demographic variables and use a Heckman selection model to control for the endogeneity of stock market participation decision. I apply the same empirical strategies in Fagereng et al. (2017) on the U.S. data. I find that the age profile of stock market participation rate is increasing over the life cycle instead of hump-shaped. The estimated conditional risky share, after controlling for selection, is higher than the risky shares reported in previous papers and it is slightly increasing over the life cycle.

Simple Allocation Rules and Optimal Portfolio Choice Over the Lifecycle

Simple Allocation Rules and Optimal Portfolio Choice Over the Lifecycle
Author: Victor Duarte
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2021
Genre: Finance, Personal
ISBN:

We develop a machine-learning solution algorithm to solve for optimal portfolio choice in a detailed and quantitatively-accurate lifecycle model that includes many features of reality modelled only separately in previous work. We use the quantitative model to evaluate the consumption-equivalent welfare losses from using simple rules for portfolio allocation across stocks, bonds, and liquid accounts instead of the optimal portfolio choices. We find that the consumption-equivalent losses from using an age-dependent rule as embedded in current target-date/lifecycle funds (TDFs) are substantial, around 2 to 3 percent of consumption, despite the fact that TDF rules mimic average optimal behavior by age closely until shortly before retirement. Our model recommends higher average equity shares in the second half of life than the portfolio of the typical TDF, so that the typical TDF portfolio does not improve on investing an age-independent 2/3 share in equity. Finally, optimal equity shares have substantial heterogeneity, particularly by wealth level, state of the business cycle, and dividend-price ratio, implying substantial gains to further customization of advice or TDFs in these dimensions.