The Role of House Prices in Regional Inflation Disparities

The Role of House Prices in Regional Inflation Disparities
Author: Dinah Maclean
Publisher:
Total Pages: 76
Release: 1994
Genre: Banks and banking
ISBN:

This paper explores in some detail regional disparities in the price of housing. It explores the theoretical reasons why rates of house price inflation are more likely to vary across regions than those of more tradable goods and services. It provides an overview of regional house price inflation disparities in relation to disparities in the general inflation rate. It also considers the role of regional demand shocks. Finally it ascertains the extent to which regional house prices are influenced by both local and national factors.

Why Can't You Afford a Home?

Why Can't You Afford a Home?
Author: Josh Ryan-Collins
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 140
Release: 2018-11-26
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1509523294

Throughout the Western world, a whole generation is being priced out of the housing market. For millions of people, particularly millennials, the basic goal of acquiring decent, affordable accommodation is a distant dream. Leading economist Josh Ryan-Collins argues that to understand this crisis, we must examine a crucial paradox at the heart of modern capitalism. The interaction of private home ownership and a lightly regulated commercial banking system leads to a feedback cycle. Unlimited credit and money flows into an inherently finite supply of property, which causes rising house prices, declining home ownership, rising inequality and debt, stagnant growth and financial instability. Radical reforms are needed to break the cycle. This engaging and topical book will be essential reading for anyone who wants to understand why they can’t find an affordable home, and what we can do about it.

House Prices and the Macroeconomy

House Prices and the Macroeconomy
Author: Charles Goodhart
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 247
Release: 2007
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199204594

House price bubbles, and their aftermath, have become a focus of macro-economic policy concern in most developed countries. This book elucidates the two-way relationship between house-price fluctuations and economic fundamentals. Housing has many features which make it distinct from other assets, like equity. Real estate is not only an asset but also a durable consumption good for households, providing shelter and other housing services. As a result, a house is often the largest and most important asset of households and therefore accounts for a major share of household wealth. Similarly a large share of bank assets is tied to housing values. House price fluctuations may, therefore, have a major effect on economic activity and the soundness of the financial system. Following an introductory chapter, the book is structured into three parts. The first demonstrates the importance of house prices as determinants or indicators of inflation and economic activity. The second focuses on the inter-relationships between bank credit extension and housing prices, and how bubbles can lead to financial crises. The third discusses resultant public policy issues, such as whether, and how, to include housing prices in a general inflation index, and how to restrain the housing/bank credit cycle.

Real Estate Price Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Expectations in the United States and Japan

Real Estate Price Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Expectations in the United States and Japan
Author: Mr.Garry J. Schinasi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 50
Release: 1994-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451925557

During the mid- to late 1980s, inflationary pressures were highly concentrated in asset markets in many industrial countries. This paper discusses why this may have occurred and then develops a forward-looking supply and demand model of the real estate market in which equilibrium prices depend on price expectations, monetary conditions, income, returns to alternative assets, and construction costs. In this model, the current equilibrium price is determined by expectations formed in different time periods by consumers and producers. The model and its more generalized dynamic specifications are estimated by maximum-likelihood methods. The empirical results do not reject the view that the relationship between real estate values and monetary policy was altered in 1980s.

House Prices and Inflation

House Prices and Inflation
Author: Ali Anari
Publisher:
Total Pages: 18
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

The present paper examines the long-run impact of inflation on homeowner equity by investigating the relationship between house prices and the prices of nonhousing goods and services, rather than return series and inflation rates as in previous empirical studies on the inflation hedging ability of real estate. There are two reasons for this methodological departure from prior practice:(1) while the total return on housing cannot be accurately measured, the total return on housing is fully reflected in housing prices, and (2) given that using returns or differencing a time series lead to a loss of long-run information contained in the series, valuable long-run information can be captured by using prices. Also, unlike previous related studies, we exclude housing costs from goods and services prices to avoid potential bias in estimating how inflation affects housing prices. Monthly data series are collected for existing and for new house prices as well as the consumer price index excluding housing costs for the period 1968-2000. Based on both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and recursive regressions, the empirical results yield estimated Fisher coefficients that are consistently greater than one over the sample period. Thus, we infer that house prices are a stable inflation hedge in the long-run.

Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning

Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning
Author: Yang Liu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2022-07-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Inflation has been rising during the pandemic against supply chain disruptions and a multi-year boom in global owner-occupied house prices. We present some stylized facts pointing to house prices as a leading indicator of headline inflation in the U.S. and eight other major economies with fast-rising house prices. We then apply machine learning methods to forecast inflation in two housing components (rent and owner-occupied housing cost) of the headline inflation and draw tentative inferences about inflationary impact. Our results suggest that for most of these countries, the housing components could have a relatively large and sustained contribution to headline inflation, as inflation is just starting to reflect the higher house prices. Methodologically, for the vast majority of countries we analyze, machine-learning models outperform the VAR model, suggesting some potential value for incorporating such models into inflation forecasting.

The Great Housing Bubble

The Great Housing Bubble
Author: Lawrence Roberts
Publisher: Monterey Cypress LLC
Total Pages: 251
Release: 2008
Genre: Art
ISBN: 0615226930

A detailed analysis of the psychological and mechanical causes of the biggest rally, and subsequent fall, of housing prices ever recorded. Examines the causes of the breathtaking rise in prices and the catastrophic fall that ensued to answer the question on every homeowner's mind: "Why did house prices fall?"--Page 4 of cover

Why House Price Indexes Differ

Why House Price Indexes Differ
Author: Mick Silver
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2012-05-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475593643

A key element in the build-up to the global recession and subsequently was the movement in house price indexes (HPIs). These indexes are particularly prone to methodological and coverage differences which can undermine both within-country and cross-country economic analysis. The paper outlines key measurement issues and reports on empirical work using an international panel data set that (i) considers whether differences in HPI measurement matter and, if so, in what way, and (ii) revisits the measurement of global house price inflation and the modeling of the determinants of house price inflation using HPIs corrected for differences in measurement practice.