Heterogeneous Expectations and Long Range Correlation of the Volatility of Asset Returns

Heterogeneous Expectations and Long Range Correlation of the Volatility of Asset Returns
Author: Jérôme Coulon
Publisher:
Total Pages: 64
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we aim at relating the long range correlation of the stocks return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations about the level of the future volatility. Based on a semi-parametric model of investors' anticipations, we make the connection between the distributional properties of the heterogeneity parameters and the auto-covariance/auto-correlation functions of the realized volatility. We report different behaviors, or change of convention, whose observation depends on the market phase under consideration. In particular, we report and justify the fact that the volatility exhibits significantly longer memory during the phases of speculative bubble than during the phase of recovery following the collapse of a speculative bubble.

Long Memory in Economics

Long Memory in Economics
Author: Gilles Teyssière
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 394
Release: 2006-09-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3540346252

Assembles three different strands of long memory analysis: statistical literature on the properties of, and tests for, LRD processes; mathematical literature on the stochastic processes involved; and models from economic theory providing plausible micro foundations for the occurrence of long memory in economics.

Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting

Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting
Author: Halbert White
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 512
Release: 1999
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780198296836

A collection of essays in honour of Clive Granger. The chapters are by some of the world's leading econometricians, all of whom have collaborated with and/or studied with both) Clive Granger. Central themes of Granger's work are reflected in the book with attention to tests for unit roots and cointegration, tests of misspecification, forecasting models and forecast evaluation, non-linear and non-parametric econometric techniques, and overall, a careful blend of practical empirical work and strong theory. The book shows the scope of Granger's research and the range of the profession that has been influenced by his work.

Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth

Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth
Author: Andreas Fagereng
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 69
Release: 2018-07-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484370066

We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.

Volatility and Correlation

Volatility and Correlation
Author: Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 864
Release: 2005-07-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470091401

In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Financial Markets and the Real Economy
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 117
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1933019158

Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Strategic Asset Allocation

Strategic Asset Allocation
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 272
Release: 2002-01-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 019160691X

Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.

Advances in Futures and Options Research

Advances in Futures and Options Research
Author: Phelim P. Boyle
Publisher: JAI Press Incorporated
Total Pages: 280
Release: 1999-11-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780762303267

Part of a series which focuses on advances in futures and options research, this title discusses a variety of topics in the field.

Fractals in Engineering

Fractals in Engineering
Author: Jacques Lévy-Véhel
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 288
Release: 2005-12-06
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1846280486

The application of fractals in the engineering sciences is evolving swiftly and the editors have turned to Springer for the third time to bring you the latest research emerging from the rapid growth in techniques available for the employment of the ideas of fractals and complexity to a variety of disciplines in and associated with the engineering field. The strong potential of this research can be seen in real industrial situations with recent progress being made in areas such as chemical engineering, internet traffic, physics and finance. Image processing continues to be a major field of application for fractal analysis and is well-represented here. It is important to note that the applications models are presented with a firm basis in theoretical argument, the qualitative observation of fractal phenomena no longer being sufficient. Consisting of papers written by a world-wide pool of experts, the multidisciplinary approach of this third volume will be of particular interest to industrial researchers and practitioners as well as to academics from many backgrounds. Fractals in Engineering: New Trends in Theory and Applications continues the publication of engineering-related research in fractal techniques begun in Fractals in Engineering and Fractals: Theory and Applications in Engineering (Springer London 1997 and 1999).