Equilibrium, Markets and Dynamics

Equilibrium, Markets and Dynamics
Author: Cars H. Hommes
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 836
Release: 2002-05-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783540434702

This book contains essays in honour of Claus Weddepohl who, after 22 years, is retiring as professor of mathematical economics at the Department of Quantitative Economics of the University of Amsterdam. Claus Weddepohl may be viewed as th~ first Dutch mathematical economist in the general equi librium tradition of Arrow, Debreu and Hahn. The essays in this book are centered around the themes Equilibrium, Markets and Dynamics, that have been at the heart of Weddepohl's work on mathematical economics for more than three decades. The essays have been classified according to these three themes. Admittedly such a classification always is somewhat arbitrary, and most essays would in fact fit into two or even all three themes. The essays have been written by international as well as Dutch friends and colleagues including Weddepohl's former Ph. D. students. The book starts with a review of Claus Weddepohl's work by Roald Ramer, who has been working with him in Amsterdam for all those years. The review describes how Weddepohl became fascinated by general equilibrium theory in the early stages of his career, how he has been working on the theory of markets throughout his career, and how he turned to applications of nonlinear dynamics to price adjustment processes in a later stage of his career. The first part of the book, Equilibrium, collects essays with general equilib rium theory as the main theme.

The Complex Dynamics of Economic Interaction

The Complex Dynamics of Economic Interaction
Author: Mauro Gallegati
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 404
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642170455

The economy is examined by the authors as a complex interactive system. The emphasis is on the direct interaction between agents rather than on the indirect and autonomous interaction through the market mechanism. Contributions from economists and physicists emphasise the consequences for aggregate behaviour of the interaction between agents with limited rationality. Models of financial markets which exhibit many of the stylised facts of empirical markets such as bubbles, herd behaviour and long memory are presented. This includes contributions on bargaining, buyer-seller relations, the evolution of economic networks and several aspects of macro-economic behaviour. This book will be of interest to all those interested in the foundations of collective social and economic behaviour and in particular, to those concerned with the dynamics of market behaviour and recent applications of physics to economics.

Strategic Analysis Of Financial Markets, The (In 2 Volumes)

Strategic Analysis Of Financial Markets, The (In 2 Volumes)
Author: Steven D Moffitt
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
Total Pages: 1119
Release: 2017-03-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9813143770

Volume 1 of 'The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets,' — Framework, is premised on the belief that markets can be understood only by dropping the assumptions of rationality and efficient markets in their extreme forms, and showing that markets still have an inherent order and inherent logic. But that order results primarily from the 'predictable irrationality' of investors, as well as from people's uncoordinated attempts to profit. The market patterns that result do not rely on rationality or efficiency.A framework is developed for understanding financial markets using a combination of psychology, statistics, game and gambling analysis, market history and the author's experience. It expresses analytically how professional investors and traders think about markets — as games in which other participants employ inferior, partially predictable strategies. Those strategies' interactions can be toxic and lead to booms, bubbles, busts and crashes, or can be less dramatic, leading to various patterns that are mistakenly called 'market inefficiencies' and 'stylized facts.'A logical case is constructed, starting from two foundations, the psychology of human decision making and the 'Fundamental Laws of Gambling.' Applying the Fundamental Laws to trading leads to the idea of 'gambling rationality' (grationality), replacing the efficient market's concept of 'rationality.' By classifying things that are likely to have semi-predictable price impacts (price 'distorters'), one can identify, explore through data analysis, and create winning trading ideas and systems. A structured way of doing all this is proposed: the six-step 'Strategic Analysis of Market Method.' Examples are given in this and Volume 2.Volume 2 of 'The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets' — Trading System Analytics, continues the development of Volume 1 by introducing tools and techniques for developing trading systems and by illustrating them using real markets. The difference between these two Volumes and the rest of the literature is its rigor. It describes trading as a form of gambling that when properly executed, is quite logical, and is well known to professional gamblers and analytical traders.But even those elites might be surprised at the extent to which quantitative methods have been justified and applied, including a life cycle theory of trading systems. Apart from a few sections that develop background material, Volume 2 creates from scratch a trading system for Eurodollar futures using principles of the Strategic Analysis of Markets Method (SAMM), a principled, step-by-step approach to developing profitable trading systems. It has an entire Chapter on mechanical methods for testing and improvement of trading systems, which transcends the rather unstructured and unsatisfactory 'backtesting' literature. It presents a breakout trend following system developed using factor models. It also presents a specific pairs trading system, and discusses its life cycle from an early, highly profitable period to its eventual demise. Recent developments in momentum trading and suggestions on improvements are also discussed.

Dynamical Systems Models of Asset Pricing

Dynamical Systems Models of Asset Pricing
Author: Natasha Kirby
Publisher:
Total Pages: 122
Release: 2006
Genre: Capital assets pricing model
ISBN: 9780494304785

In this thesis we study asset pricing models using a dynamical systems approach. We first review the literature on current dynamical systems models of asset pricing. The foundation of these models is the fact that they incorporate heterogeneous beliefs among traders. Two main trader groups are discussed, fundamental traders and trend-chasing chartists. The theory of discrete dynamical systems, or maps, is also explored, and in depth analysis of these models is carried out. We modify a model of Chiarella, Dieci and Cardini to incorporate a third group of traders called contrarian chartists. The main idea surrounding contrarian chartists is that they not only disagree with the majority of traders, but they choose when to act on the disagreement in order to make a profit. A second case of this model is also discussed, where contrarian chartists are thought to always disagree with the majority. This case reduces to the literature model with one different parameter value. In each case, the model consists of a system of two difference equations. The first equation represents the logarithm of the asset price at any given time t, and the other represents the expectation of price change from one time period to the next. This system exhibits complicated behaviour including local behaviour such as period-doubling and Neimark-Sacker bifurcations as well as local attractors, global bifurcations and chaos. The results in terms of asset prices are also included for these models. The thesis concludes with some limitations and suggestions for future research.

A Dynamic Theory of Communication

A Dynamic Theory of Communication
Author: Orlando Gomes
Publisher:
Total Pages: 182
Release: 2009
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Communication is a dynamic and complex process. The study of human communication introduces us to a world of multiple scenarios, agents, variables and interconnections, which are important to understand. As in any scientific discipline, the compromise between abstraction and a rigorous analysis, on one hand, and the need to discuss subjects in all their complexity and deepness, on the other hand, is a difficult task, and some simplifications and shortcomings become inevitable. In the analysis of such a wide and pervasive subject as is communication, it is necessary to choose a path, to define strategies of analysis and to formulate concrete problems. In this book, communication is worked on the basis of mathematical models that deal with relations between variables of the communicational process. Centring the attention on the notion of dynamic process, techniques of intertemporal analysis and optimal control are considered with the goal of highlighting and reinforcing some of the main ideas that the communication theory has produced and explored in the last few decades.

Asset Pricing Model with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons

Asset Pricing Model with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2004
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper we study the dynamics of a simple asset pricing model describing the trading activity of heterogeneous agents in a "stylized" market. The economy in the model contains two assets: a bond with risk-less return and a dividend paying stock. The price of the stock is determined through market clearing condition. Traders are speculators described as expected utility maximizers with heterogeneous beliefs about future stock price and with heterogeneous estimation of risk. In particular, we consider traders who base their investment decision on different time horizons and we analyze the effect of these differences on the price dynamics. Under suitable parameterization, the stock no-arbitrage "fundamental" price can emerge as a stable fixed point of the model dynamics. For different parameterizations, however, the market shows cyclical or chaotic price dynamics with speculative bubbles and crashes. We find that the sole heterogeneity of agents with respect to their time horizons is not enough to guarantee the instability of the fundamental price and the emergence of non-trivial price dynamics. However, if different groups of agents are characterized by different trading behaviors, the introduction of heterogeneous investment horizons can help to decrease the stability region of the "fundamental" fixed point. The role of time horizons turns out to be different for different trade behaviors and, in general, depends on the whole ecology of agents' beliefs. We demonstrate this effect discussing a case in which the increase of fundamentalists time horizons can lead to cyclical or chaotic price behavior, while the same increase for the chartists helps to stabilize the fundamental price. -- Asset pricing ; Heterogenous beliefs ; Investment horizons