Global Shocks
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| Author | : Nicholas P. Sargen |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 198 |
| Release | : 2016-10-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3319411055 |
This book, which is written from a practitioner’s perspective, fills the void by providing the reader with a toolkit and guiding principles to manage money when markets are in turmoil. It features ten case studies beginning with the breakdown of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system through the current situation in which investors are assessing whether China could become the next bubble. Each chapter discusses how the respective crisis or bubble unfolded at the time, the way policymakers and markets responded, and the optimal strategy for positioning portfolios. The goal is to share these experiences and the lessons from them, so investors will be better prepared for future shocks. The opening chapter explores whether there are common patterns in movements of interest rates and exchange rates that investors can exploit. A conceptual framework is presented that helps explain why this is the case for traditional currency crises, but less so for asset bubbles. The concluding chapter ties the episodes together and considers how the nature of financial crises has evolved since the collapse of Bretton Woods. We cite factors that make it difficult for policymakers and investors to detect problems in advance of an asset bubble. The good news is investors get a second chance to outperform when markets are over-sold; however, they need to formulate a strategy to limit the damage during the sell-off phase and to capitalize on the eventual recovery.
| Author | : Niall Ferguson |
| Publisher | : Belknap Press |
| Total Pages | : 449 |
| Release | : 2011-10-15 |
| Genre | : History |
| ISBN | : 0674061861 |
From the vantage point of the United States or Western Europe, the 1970s was a time of troubles: economic “stagflation,” political scandal, and global turmoil. Yet from an international perspective it was a seminal decade, one that brought the reintegration of the world after the great divisions of the mid-twentieth century. It was the 1970s that introduced the world to the phenomenon of “globalization,” as networks of interdependence bound peoples and societies in new and original ways. The 1970s saw the breakdown of the postwar economic order and the advent of floating currencies and free capital movements. Non-state actors rose to prominence while the authority of the superpowers diminished. Transnational issues such as environmental protection, population control, and human rights attracted unprecedented attention. The decade transformed international politics, ending the era of bipolarity and launching two great revolutions that would have repercussions in the twenty-first century: the Iranian theocratic revolution and the Chinese market revolution. The Shock of the Global examines the large-scale structural upheaval of the 1970s by transcending the standard frameworks of national borders and superpower relations. It reveals for the first time an international system in the throes of enduring transformations.
| Author | : OECD |
| Publisher | : OECD Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 142 |
| Release | : 2011-08-04 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9264114580 |
This report provides strategic advice on preparing for and responding to potential global shocks.
| Author | : Naoyuki Yoshino |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9784899740698 |
Asian economies continue to be subject to new shocks: US monetary policy tightening, the adoption of negative-interest-rate policies by central banks all over the world, the slowdown of the People's Republic of China, and the sharp drop in oil and other commodity prices. All these highlight the vulnerability of the region to volatile trade and capital flows even as the global and Asian regional financial architecture evolves. This volume analyzes the vulnerabilities of Asian economies to external economic and financial shocks and assesses the performance of Asian regional institutions in financial surveillance and cooperation. It also evaluates ongoing reforms of the global financial architecture, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Financial Stability Board, and reviews the experience of the "Troika" (European Commission, European Central Bank, and the IMF) in managing the European sovereign debt and banking crisis. Based on these, the book develops valuable recommendations to strengthen the Asian regional financial architecture and improve cooperation with global multilateral institutions.
| Author | : Stephane Hallegatte |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 227 |
| Release | : 2015-11-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464806748 |
Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
| Author | : Paul Brenton |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 217 |
| Release | : 2022-03-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464818223 |
Global value chains (GVCs) have driven dramatic expansions in trade, productivity, and economic growth in developing countries. This book examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GVCs and explores whether they can continue to be a driver of trade and development. The report reviews previous crises and what these tell us about the resilience of GVC firms to shocks. It examines the observed impact of COVID-19 on trade during the sharp global recession of 2020. It summarizes discussions with GVC firms on the impacts of, and their responses to, the COVID shock. GVCs showed surprising resilience, but the rapid recovery raised new issues with supply chains. The book then explores simulations from a global economic model of the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 on developing countries and other key factors shaping the global economy, including the evolving role of China, increasing trade restrictions and policy responses to global warming. The analysis shows that while there are risks associated with GVCs, especially those concentrated around key nodes and where opportunities to find alternative suppliers or buyers are limited, there are mechanisms by which GVCs maintain trade relationships during a crisis, paving the way for a strong trade-led recovery. Measures are identified that can enhance the resilience of GVCs in low-income countries. This report finds that policies that maintain and enhance trade can contribute toward crisis management and recovery. Attempts to reshore production would make all countries worse off, including those that implement them, and could drive 52 million people, mainly in Africa, into extreme poverty. Measures to meet climate change commitments will have more profound impacts, leading to a shift away from carbon-intensive GVCs, while new opportunities for trade will arise in GVCs that are less carbon intensive.
| Author | : Gernot Wagner |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 269 |
| Release | : 2016-04-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1400880769 |
How knowing the extreme risks of climate change can help us prepare for an uncertain future If you had a 10 percent chance of having a fatal car accident, you'd take necessary precautions. If your finances had a 10 percent chance of suffering a severe loss, you'd reevaluate your assets. So if we know the world is warming and there's a 10 percent chance this might eventually lead to a catastrophe beyond anything we could imagine, why aren't we doing more about climate change right now? We insure our lives against an uncertain future—why not our planet? In Climate Shock, Gernot Wagner and Martin Weitzman explore in lively, clear terms the likely repercussions of a hotter planet, drawing on and expanding from work previously unavailable to general audiences. They show that the longer we wait to act, the more likely an extreme event will happen. A city might go underwater. A rogue nation might shoot particles into the Earth's atmosphere, geoengineering cooler temperatures. Zeroing in on the unknown extreme risks that may yet dwarf all else, the authors look at how economic forces that make sensible climate policies difficult to enact, make radical would-be fixes like geoengineering all the more probable. What we know about climate change is alarming enough. What we don't know about the extreme risks could be far more dangerous. Wagner and Weitzman help readers understand that we need to think about climate change in the same way that we think about insurance—as a risk management problem, only here on a global scale. With a new preface addressing recent developments Wagner and Weitzman demonstrate that climate change can and should be dealt with—and what could happen if we don't do so—tackling the defining environmental and public policy issue of our time.
| Author | : Rasmus Heltberg |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 307 |
| Release | : 2012-04-01 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 0821394606 |
This book brings together qualitative studies conducted during 2008-11 in communities in sixteen countries, with eight case studies that illustrate how people in specific localities were impacted by global shocks and what coping mechanisms they used.
| Author | : Jocelyn Boussard |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2024-10-04 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper investigates the consequences of global shocks on a sample of low- and lower-middle-income countries with a particular focus on fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS). FCS are a group of countries that display institutional weakness and/or are negatively affected by active conflict, thereby facing challenges in macroeconomic policy management. Examining different global shocks associated with commodity prices, external demand, and financing conditions, this paper establishes that FCS economies are more vulnerable to these shocks compared to non-FCS peers. The higher sensitivity of FCS economies is mainly driven by procyclical fiscal responses, aggravated by the lack of effective spending controls and timely access to financial sources. External financing serves as a source of stability, partially mitigating the adverse impact of global shocks. This paper contributes to a better understanding of how conditions of fragility, which are on the rise in many parts of the world today, can amplify the effects of negative exogenous shocks. Its results highlight the diverse nature of underlying sources of vulnerabilities, spanning from fiscal and external buffers to institutional quality and economic structure, with lessons applicable to a broader set of countries. Efficient and timely external financial support from external partners, including international financial institutions, should help countries’ counter-cyclical responses to mitigate adverse shocks and achieve macroeconomic stability.
| Author | : Jordi Galí |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 663 |
| Release | : 2010-03-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226278875 |
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
