Hot Property

Hot Property
Author: Rob Nijskens
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 220
Release: 2019-06-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030116743

This open access book discusses booming housing markets in cities around the globe, and the resulting challenges for policymakers and central banks. Cities are booming everywhere, leading to a growing demand for urban housing. In many cities this demand is out-pacing supply, which causes house prices to soar and increases the pressure on rental markets. These developments are posing major challenges for policymakers, central banks and other authorities responsible for ensuring financial stability, and economic well-being in general.This volume collects views from high-level policymakers and researchers, providing essential insights into these challenges, their impact on society, the economy and financial stability, and possible policy responses. The respective chapters address issues such as the popularity of cities, the question of a credit-fueled housing bubble, the role of housing supply frictions and potential policy solutions. Given its scope, the book offers a revealing read and valuable guide for everyone involved in practical policymaking for housing markets, mortgage credit and financial stability.

Global House Price Fluctuations

Global House Price Fluctuations
Author: Mr.Hideaki Hirata
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2013-02-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475591608

We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.

World Economic Outlook, October 2021

World Economic Outlook, October 2021
Author: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 172
Release: 2021-10-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513577522

The global recovery continues but the momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic. Fueled by the highly transmissible Delta variant, the recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen close to 5 million and health risks abound, holding back a full return to normalcy. Pandemic outbreaks in critical links of global supply chains have resulted in longer-than-expected supply disruptions, further feeding inflation in many countries. Overall, risks to economic prospects have increased, and policy trade-offs have become more complex.

World Economic Outlook, October 2018

World Economic Outlook, October 2018
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 215
Release: 2018-10-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484377354

Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.

World Economic Outlook, October 2019

World Economic Outlook, October 2019
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 208
Release: 2019-10-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513516175

Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.

World Economic Outlook, October 2023

World Economic Outlook, October 2023
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 182
Release: 2023-10-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

The latest World Economic Outlook reports signs that policy tightening is starting to cool activity despite core inflation proving persistent. Risks are more balanced as banking sector stress has receded, but they remain tilted to the downside. Monetary policy should stay the course to bring inflation to target, while fiscal consolidation is needed to tackle soaring debts. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.

World Economic Outlook, April 2019

World Economic Outlook, April 2019
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 216
Release: 2019-04-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498306101

After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity in Japan. Trade tensions increasingly took a toll on business confidence and, so, financial market sentiment worsened, with financial conditions tightening for vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and then in advanced economies later in the year, weighing on global demand. Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall.

Global Housing Markets and Monetary Policy Spillovers

Global Housing Markets and Monetary Policy Spillovers
Author: Scott Luo
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

What are the driving forces of housing market volatilities across countries within the context of financial globalization? To address this broad question, we integrate the Campbell-Shiller decomposition with a dynamic factor model and apply this approach to the housing price-rent ratios in 17 OECD countries. Our novel approach allows us not only to assess geographically the relative importance of global and country-specific factors in explaining the housing market volatilities, but also to distinguish economically between those housing market volatilities attributable to different economic driving forces including the expected rent growth, the expected risk free rate, and the housing risk premium, within global and country-specific factors respectively. We find that the housing market volatility for an average country is mainly driven by the global factors, especially during the years leading up to the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Furthermore, among the global factors it is the global housing risk premium component that is primarily responsible for the housing market volatility. Using a Structural Vector-Autoregressive (SVAR) model identified through the instrumental variable method, we find that an unexpected U.S. monetary policy tightening is typically followed by a persistent and statistically significant rise in the global housing risk premium with some lag to a run-up of the U.S. housing risk premium. Moreover, the local factor in U.S. housing risk premium tends to go up sharply around 2 years before a U.S. recession, and leads the global housing risk premium. Our findings are broadly in line with the credit or risk-taking channel of the monetary policy spillovers from the United States to the global financial markets.

World Economic Outlook, October 2017

World Economic Outlook, October 2017
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 304
Release: 2017-10-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148432112X

The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening. Global growth, which in 2016 was the weakest since the global financial crisis at 3.2 percent, is projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and to 3.7 percent in 2018. The growth forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 are 0.1 percentage point stronger compared with projections earlier this year. Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia—where growth outcomes in the first half of 2017 were better than expected—more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom. But the recovery is not complete: while the baseline outlook is strengthening, growth remains weak in many countries, and inflation is below target in most advanced economies. Commodity exporters, especially of fuel, are particularly hard hit as their adjustment to a sharp step down in foreign earnings continues. And while short-term risks are broadly balanced, medium-term risks are still tilted to the downside. The welcome cyclical pickup in global activity thus provides an ideal window of opportunity to tackle the key policy challenges—namely to boost potential output while ensuring its benefits are broadly shared, and to build resilience against downside risks. A renewed multilateral effort is also needed to tackle the common challenges of an integrated global economy.