Global Catastrophic Risks
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| Author | : Nick Bostrom |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 577 |
| Release | : 2011-09-29 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 0199606501 |
A Global Catastrophic Risk is one that has the potential to inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. This book focuses on such risks arising from natural catastrophes (Earth-based or beyond), nuclear war, terrorism, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and social collapse.
| Author | : Nick Bostrom |
| Publisher | : OUP Oxford |
| Total Pages | : 875 |
| Release | : 2008-07-03 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0191578495 |
A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again. In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.
| Author | : Nick Bostrom |
| Publisher | : OUP Oxford |
| Total Pages | : 577 |
| Release | : 2008-07-04 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0191547131 |
A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again. In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.
| Author | : Richard A. Posner |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 333 |
| Release | : 2004-11-11 |
| Genre | : Law |
| ISBN | : 0195346394 |
Catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated. Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, voraciously replicating nanomachines, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the possible extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of psychological and cultural reasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among the keys to coping effectively with the catastrophic risks.
| Author | : Thomas V. Inglesby |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 128 |
| Release | : 2019-12-12 |
| Genre | : Medical |
| ISBN | : 9783030363109 |
This volume focuses on Global Catastrophic Biological Risks (GCBRs), a special class of infectious disease outbreaks or pandemics in which the combined capacity of the world’s private and government resources becomes severely strained. These events, of which the 1918 influenza pandemic is emblematic, cause severe disruptions in the normal functioning of the world, exact heavy tolls in terms of morbidity and mortality, and lead to major economic losses. GCBRs can be caused by any type of microorganism, and myriad contextual factors can influence their impact. Additionally, there are cascading questions that arise in connection with GCBR prediction, preparation, and response. This book gathers contributions from thought leaders who discuss the multi-faceted approaches needed in order to address this problem. From understanding the special characteristics of various microbes to financing challenges, the volume provides an essential primer on a neglected but highly relevant topic. Physicians, scientists, policymakers, public health practitioners and anyone with an interest in the field of pandemics, emerging infectious disease, biosecurity, and global health security will find it a valuable and insightful resource.
| Author | : B. John Garrick |
| Publisher | : Academic Press |
| Total Pages | : 374 |
| Release | : 2008-10-27 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0080923453 |
The perception, assessment and management of risk are increasingly important core principles for determining the development of both policy and strategic responses to civil and environmental catastrophes. Whereas these principles were once confined to some areas of activity i.e. financial and insurance, they are now widely used in civil and environmental engineering. Comprehensive and readable, Civil and Environmental Risk: Mitigation and Control, provides readers with the mathematical tools and quantitative methods for determining the probability of a catastrophic event and mitigating and controlling the aftermath. With this book engineers develop the required skills for accurately assessing risk and formulating appropriate response strategies. The two part treatment starts with a clear and rigorous exposition of the quantitative risk assessment process, followed by self-contained chapters concerning applications. One of the first books to address both natural and human generated disasters, topics include events such as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents and terrorist attacks. Case studies appear at the end of the book allowing engineers to see how these principles are applied to scenarios such as a super hurricane or mega tsunamis, a reactor core melt down in a nuclear plant, a terrorist attack on the national electric grid, and an abrupt climate change brought about by a change in the ocean currents in the North Atlantic. Written by the current Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Environmental risk managers will find this reference a valuable and authoritative guide both in accurately calculating risk and its applications in their work. - Mathematical tools for calculating and Controlling Catastrophic Risk - Presents a systematic method for ranking the importance of societal threats - Includes both Natural and Industrial Catastrophes - Case studies cover such events as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents, and terrorist attacks
| Author | : Howard Kunreuther |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 249 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0190499400 |
A profound and insightful look at how companies prepare for and respond to crises that threaten catastrophic disruption to their operations and even their existence.
| Author | : Martin Rees |
| Publisher | : Basic Books |
| Total Pages | : 240 |
| Release | : 2009-03-17 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0786740698 |
A scientist known for unraveling the complexities of the universe over millions of years, Sir Martin Rees now warns that humankind is potentially the maker of its own demise -- and that of the cosmos. Though the twenty-first century could be the critical era in which life on Earth spreads beyond our solar system, it is just as likely that we have endangered the future of the entire universe. With clarity and precision, Rees maps out the ways technology could destroy our species and thereby foreclose the potential of a living universe whose evolution has just begun. Rees boldly forecasts the startling risks that stem from our accelerating rate of technological advances. We could be wiped out by lethal "engineered" airborne viruses, or by rogue nano-machines that replicate catastrophically. Experiments that crash together atomic nuclei could start a chain reaction that erodes all atoms of Earth, or could even tear the fabric of space itself. Through malign intent or by mistake, a single event could trigger global disaster. Though we can never completely safeguard our future, increased regulation and inspection can help us to prevent catastrophe. Rees's vision of the infinite future that we have put at risk -- a cosmos more vast and diverse than any of us has ever imagined -- is both a work of stunning scientific originality and a humanistic clarion call on behalf of the future of life.
| Author | : David Denkenberger |
| Publisher | : Academic Press |
| Total Pages | : 134 |
| Release | : 2014-11-14 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 0128023589 |
Feeding Everyone No Matter What presents a scientific approach to the practicalities of planning for long-term interruption to food production. The primary historic solution developed over the last several decades is increased food storage. However, storing up enough food to feed everyone would take a significant amount of time and would increase the price of food, killing additional people due to inadequate global access to affordable food. Humanity is far from doomed, however, in these situations - there are solutions. This book provides an order of magnitude technical analysis comparing caloric requirements of all humans for five years with conversion of existing vegetation and fossil fuels to edible food. It presents mechanisms for global-scale conversion including: natural gas-digesting bacteria, extracting food from leaves, and conversion of fiber by enzymes, mushroom or bacteria growth, or a two-step process involving partial decomposition of fiber by fungi and/or bacteria and feeding them to animals such as beetles, ruminants (cows, deer, etc), rats and chickens. It includes an analysis to determine the ramp rates for each option and the results show that careful planning and global cooperation could ensure the bulk of humanity and biodiversity could be maintained in even in the most extreme circumstances. - Summarizes the severity and probabilities of global catastrophe scenarios, which could lead to a complete loss of agricultural production - More than 10 detailed mechanisms for global-scale solutions to the food crisis and their evaluation to test their viability - Detailed roadmap for future R&D for human survival after global catastrophe
| Author | : Toby Ord |
| Publisher | : Hachette Books |
| Total Pages | : 480 |
| Release | : 2020-03-24 |
| Genre | : Philosophy |
| ISBN | : 031648489X |
This urgent and eye-opening book makes the case that protecting humanity's future is the central challenge of our time. If all goes well, human history is just beginning. Our species could survive for billions of years - enough time to end disease, poverty, and injustice, and to flourish in ways unimaginable today. But this vast future is at risk. With the advent of nuclear weapons, humanity entered a new age, where we face existential catastrophes - those from which we could never come back. Since then, these dangers have only multiplied, from climate change to engineered pathogens and artificial intelligence. If we do not act fast to reach a place of safety, it will soon be too late. Drawing on over a decade of research, The Precipice explores the cutting-edge science behind the risks we face. It puts them in the context of the greater story of humanity: showing how ending these risks is among the most pressing moral issues of our time. And it points the way forward, to the actions and strategies that can safeguard humanity. An Oxford philosopher committed to putting ideas into action, Toby Ord has advised the US National Intelligence Council, the UK Prime Minister's Office, and the World Bank on the biggest questions facing humanity. In The Precipice, he offers a startling reassessment of human history, the future we are failing to protect, and the steps we must take to ensure that our generation is not the last. "A book that seems made for the present moment." —New Yorker
