Fx Intervention To Stabilize Or Manipulate The Exchange Rate
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| Author | : Mr.Damiano Sandri |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 24 |
| Release | : 2020-06-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513547666 |
We analyze the profitability of FX swaps used by the central bank of Brazil to shed light on the rationale for FX intervention. We find that swaps are profitable in expectation, suggesting that FX intervention is used to stabilize the exchange rate in the face of temporary excessive movements rather than to manipulate it away from fundamental values. In line with this interpretation, we find that the scale of FX intervention responds to the degree of exchange rate misalignment relative to UIP conditions. We also document that intervention is more aggressive when there is less uncertainty about the medium-term level of the exchange rate and when the exchange rate is overvalued rather than undervalued.
| Author | : Damiano Sandri |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2022 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Gustavo Adler |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2016-03-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475520417 |
We study the use of foreign exchange (FX) intervention as an additional policy instrument in an environment with learning, where agents infer the central bank policy rules from its policy actions. Under full information, a central bank focused on stabilizing output and inflation can achieve better outcomes by using FX intervention as an additional policy tool. Under policy uncertainty, where agents perceive that monetary policy may also have exchange rate stabilization goals, the use of FX intervention entails a trade-off, reducing output volatility while increasing inflation volatility. While having an additional policy tool is always beneficial, we find that the optimal magnitude of intervention is higher in monetary policy regimes with lower uncertainty. These results indicate that the benefits of using FX intervention as an additional stabilization tool are greater in regimes where monetary policy is credibly focused on output and inflation stabilization.
| Author | : Romain Lafarguette |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 2021-02-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513569406 |
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
| Author | : Andrew Filardo |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 41 |
| Release | : 2022-07-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This paper develops a new approach for exploring the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention, focusing on real exchange cycles. Using band spectrum regression methods, it examines the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in determining the equilibrium real exchange rate at short-, medium-, and low frequencies. Next, it assesses the effectiveness of FX intervention depending on the degree of cycle-specific misalignments for 26 advanced- and emerging market economies, covering the period 1990–2018, and using different techniques to mitigate endogeneity concerns. Evidence supports the hypothesis that central banks can lean effectively against short-run cyclical misalignments of the real exchange rate. The effects are present in quarterly data—i.e., at policy-relevant horizons. The effectiveness of intervention rises with the size of the misalignment, and with the duration of one-sided interventions. FX sales appear to be somewhat more effective than FX purchases, and intervention is less effective in more liquid FX markets.
| Author | : Kathryn M. Dominguez |
| Publisher | : Peterson Institute for International Economics |
| Total Pages | : 196 |
| Release | : 1993 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
How much impact on exchange rates do central banks have when they buy and sell currencies? According to many analysts, such intervention has no independent impact. This book challenges the conventional wisdom, demonstrating that such intervention can be an effective and extremely important tool for policymakers. Using previously unavailable daily intervention data from the US Federal Reserve and German Bundesbank, the authors show that even "sterilized" intervention -intervention that entails no corresponding changes in monetary policy- has a significant effect. A key element is whether the intervention is known to the public: widespread market awareness of the activity adds substantially to its payoff. Authors Dominguez and Frankel draw implications for intervention policy and its role in international economic policy coordination.
| Author | : Juan Pablo Medina Guzman |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : Banks and banking, Central |
| ISBN | : 9781475547313 |
We study the use of foreign exchange (FX) intervention as an additional policy instrument in an environment with learning, where agents infer the central bank policy rules from its policy actions. Under full information, a central bank focused on stabilizing output and inflation can achieve better outcomes by using FX intervention as an additional policy tool. Under policy uncertainty, where agents perceive that monetary policy may also have exchange rate stabilization goals, the use of FX intervention entails a trade-off, reducing output volatility while increasing inflation volatility. While having an additional policy tool is always beneficial, we find that the optimal magnitude of intervention is higher in monetary policy regimes with lower uncertainty. These results indicate that the benefits of using FX intervention as an additional stabilization tool are greater in regimes where monetary policy is credibly focused on output and inflation stabilization.--Abstract.
| Author | : Gustavo Adler |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 42 |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : Foreign exchange |
| ISBN | : 9781513512105 |
"We study the effect of foreign exchange intervention on the exchange rate relying on an instrumental-variables panel approach. We find robust evidence that intervention affects the level of the exchange rate in an economically meaningful way. A purchase of foreign currency of 1 percentage point of GDP causes a depreciation of the nominal and real exchange rates in the ranges of [1.7-2.0] percent and [1.4-1.7] percent respectively. The effects are found to be quite persistent. The paper also explores possible asymmetric effects, and whether effectiveness depends on the depth of domestic financial markets.
| Author | : Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : Banks and banking, Central |
| ISBN | : 9789291319626 |
| Author | : Gustavo Adler |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 42 |
| Release | : 2015-06-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513534602 |
We study the effect of foreign exchange intervention on the exchange rate relying on an instrumental-variables panel approach. We find robust evidence that intervention affects the level of the exchange rate in an economically meaningful way. A purchase of foreign currency of 1 percentage point of GDP causes a depreciation of the nominal and real exchange rates in the ranges of [1.7-2.0] percent and [1.4-1.7] percent respectively. The effects are found to be quite persistent. The paper also explores possible asymmetric effects, and whether effectiveness depends on the depth of domestic financial markets.
