Foundations And Applications Of Decision Theory
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Author | : C.A. Hooker |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 463 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 9400997892 |
1. INTRODUCTION In the Spring of 1975 we held an international workshop on the Foundations and Application of Decision Theory at the University of Western Ontario. To help structure the workshop into ordered and manageable sessions we distri buted the following statement of our goals to all invited participants. They in turn responded with useful revisions and suggested their own areas of interest. Since this procedure provided the eventual format of the sessions, we include it here as the most appropriate introduction to these collected papers result ing from the workshop. The reader can readily gauge the approximation to our mutual goals. 2. STATEMENT or OBJECTIVES AND RATIONALE (Attached to this statement is a bibliography; names of persons cited in the statement and writing in this century will be found referenced in the biblio graphy - certain 'classics' aside. ) 2. 1. Preamble We understand in the following the Theory of Decisions in a broader sense than is presently customary, construing it to embrace a general theory of deciSion-making, induding social, political and economic theory and applica tions. Thus, we subsume the Theory of Games under the head of Decision Theory, regarding it as a particularly clearly formulated version of part of the general theory of decision-making.
Author | : James Berger |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 440 |
Release | : 2013-04-17 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 147571727X |
Decision theory is generally taught in one of two very different ways. When of opti taught by theoretical statisticians, it tends to be presented as a set of mathematical techniques mality principles, together with a collection of various statistical procedures. When useful in establishing the optimality taught by applied decision theorists, it is usually a course in Bayesian analysis, showing how this one decision principle can be applied in various practical situations. The original goal I had in writing this book was to find some middle ground. I wanted a book which discussed the more theoretical ideas and techniques of decision theory, but in a manner that was constantly oriented towards solving statistical problems. In particular, it seemed crucial to include a discussion of when and why the various decision prin ciples should be used, and indeed why decision theory is needed at all. This original goal seemed indicated by my philosophical position at the time, which can best be described as basically neutral. I felt that no one approach to decision theory (or statistics) was clearly superior to the others, and so planned a rather low key and impartial presentation of the competing ideas. In the course of writing the book, however, I turned into a rabid Bayesian. There was no single cause for this conversion; just a gradual realization that things seemed to ultimately make sense only when looked at from the Bayesian viewpoint.
Author | : James M. Joyce |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 300 |
Release | : 1999-04-13 |
Genre | : Computers |
ISBN | : 9780521641647 |
The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true.
Author | : Giovanni Parmigiani |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 416 |
Release | : 2009-05-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Decision theory provides a formal framework for making logical choices in the face of uncertainty. Given a set of alternatives, a set of consequences, and a correspondence between those sets, decision theory offers conceptually simple procedures for choice. This book presents an overview of the fundamental concepts and outcomes of rational decision making under uncertainty, highlighting the implications for statistical practice. The authors have developed a series of self contained chapters focusing on bridging the gaps between the different fields that have contributed to rational decision making and presenting ideas in a unified framework and notation while respecting and highlighting the different and sometimes conflicting perspectives. This book: * Provides a rich collection of techniques and procedures. * Discusses the foundational aspects and modern day practice. * Links foundations to practical applications in biostatistics, computer science, engineering and economics. * Presents different perspectives and controversies to encourage readers to form their own opinion of decision making and statistics. Decision Theory is fundamental to all scientific disciplines, including biostatistics, computer science, economics and engineering. Anyone interested in the whys and wherefores of statistical science will find much to enjoy in this book.
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 1975 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Sucar, L. Enrique |
Publisher | : IGI Global |
Total Pages | : 444 |
Release | : 2011-10-31 |
Genre | : Computers |
ISBN | : 160960167X |
One of the goals of artificial intelligence (AI) is creating autonomous agents that must make decisions based on uncertain and incomplete information. The goal is to design rational agents that must take the best action given the information available and their goals. Decision Theory Models for Applications in Artificial Intelligence: Concepts and Solutions provides an introduction to different types of decision theory techniques, including MDPs, POMDPs, Influence Diagrams, and Reinforcement Learning, and illustrates their application in artificial intelligence. This book provides insights into the advantages and challenges of using decision theory models for developing intelligent systems.
Author | : Patrick Suppes |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 212 |
Release | : 1996-11-13 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 9780521568357 |
This is an important collection of essays by a leading philosopher, dealing with the foundations of probability.
Author | : Bernt P. Stigum |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2010-12-25 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 9789048183647 |
In this volume we present some o~ the papers that were delivered at FUR-82 - the First International Con~erence on Foundations o~ Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo, June 1982. The purpose o~ the con~erence was to provide a ~orum within which scientists could report on interesting applications o~ modern decision theory and exchange ideas about controversial issues in the ~oundations o~ the theory o~ choice under un certainty. With that purpose in mind we have selected a mixture of applied and theoretical papers that we hope will appeal to a wide spectrum o~ readers ~rom graduate students in social science departments and business schools to people involved in making hardheaded decisions in business and government. In an introductory article Ole Hagen gives an overview o~ various paradoxes in utility and risk theory and discusses these in the light o~ scientific methodology. He concludes the article by calling ~or joint efforts to provide decision makers with warkable theories. Kenneth Arrow takes up the same issue on a broad basis in his paper where he discusses the implications o~ behavior under uncertainty for policy. In the theoretical papers the reader will ~ind attempts at de~initive Statements of the meaning o~ old concepts and suggestions for the adoption o~ new concepts. For instance, Maurice Allais discusses four di~ferent interpretations o~ the axioms o~ probability and explains the need ~or an empirical characterization o~ the concept of chance.
Author | : Martin Peterson |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 351 |
Release | : 2017-03-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1107151597 |
A comprehensive and accessible introduction to all aspects of decision theory, now with new and updated discussions and over 140 exercises.
Author | : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 408 |
Release | : 2019-04-04 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3030052524 |
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.