Forward Looking Decision Making
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| Author | : Robert E. Hall |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 152 |
| Release | : 2010-02-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1400835267 |
Individuals and families make key decisions that impact many aspects of financial stability and determine the future of the economy. These decisions involve balancing current sacrifice against future benefits. People have to decide how much to invest in health care, exercise, their diet, and insurance. They must decide how much debt to take on, and how much to save. And they make choices about jobs that determine employment and unemployment levels. Forward-Looking Decision Making is about modeling this individual or family-based decision making using an optimizing dynamic programming model. Robert Hall first reviews ideas about dynamic programs and introduces new ideas about numerical solutions and the representation of solved models as Markov processes. He surveys recent research on the parameters of preferences--the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, and the Frisch cross-elasticity. He then examines dynamic programming models applied to health spending, long-term care insurance, employment, entrepreneurial risk-taking, and consumer debt. Linking theory with data and applying them to real-world problems, Forward-Looking Decision Making uses dynamic optimization programming models to shed light on individual behaviors and their economic implications.
| Author | : Barry Schwartz |
| Publisher | : Harper Collins |
| Total Pages | : 308 |
| Release | : 2009-10-13 |
| Genre | : Psychology |
| ISBN | : 0061748994 |
Whether we're buying a pair of jeans, ordering a cup of coffee, selecting a long-distance carrier, applying to college, choosing a doctor, or setting up a 401(k), everyday decisions—both big and small—have become increasingly complex due to the overwhelming abundance of choice with which we are presented. As Americans, we assume that more choice means better options and greater satisfaction. But beware of excessive choice: choice overload can make you question the decisions you make before you even make them, it can set you up for unrealistically high expectations, and it can make you blame yourself for any and all failures. In the long run, this can lead to decision-making paralysis, anxiety, and perpetual stress. And, in a culture that tells us that there is no excuse for falling short of perfection when your options are limitless, too much choice can lead to clinical depression. In The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz explains at what point choice—the hallmark of individual freedom and self-determination that we so cherish—becomes detrimental to our psychological and emotional well-being. In accessible, engaging, and anecdotal prose, Schwartz shows how the dramatic explosion in choice—from the mundane to the profound challenges of balancing career, family, and individual needs—has paradoxically become a problem instead of a solution. Schwartz also shows how our obsession with choice encourages us to seek that which makes us feel worse. By synthesizing current research in the social sciences, Schwartz makes the counter intuitive case that eliminating choices can greatly reduce the stress, anxiety, and busyness of our lives. He offers eleven practical steps on how to limit choices to a manageable number, have the discipline to focus on those that are important and ignore the rest, and ultimately derive greater satisfaction from the choices you have to make.
| Author | : Amy Finkelstein |
| Publisher | : Columbia University Press |
| Total Pages | : 161 |
| Release | : 2014-12-02 |
| Genre | : Medical |
| ISBN | : 0231538685 |
Addressing the challenge of covering heath care expenses—while minimizing economic risks. Moral hazard—the tendency to change behavior when the cost of that behavior will be borne by others—is a particularly tricky question when considering health care. Kenneth J. Arrow’s seminal 1963 paper on this topic (included in this volume) was one of the first to explore the implication of moral hazard for health care, and Amy Finkelstein—recognized as one of the world’s foremost experts on the topic—here examines this issue in the context of contemporary American health care policy. Drawing on research from both the original RAND Health Insurance Experiment and her own research, including a 2008 Health Insurance Experiment in Oregon, Finkelstein presents compelling evidence that health insurance does indeed affect medical spending and encourages policy solutions that acknowledge and account for this. The volume also features commentaries and insights from other renowned economists, including an introduction by Joseph P. Newhouse that provides context for the discussion, a commentary from Jonathan Gruber that considers provider-side moral hazard, and reflections from Joseph E. Stiglitz and Kenneth J. Arrow. “Reads like a fireside chat among a group of distinguished, articulate health economists.” —Choice
| Author | : Jean-Claude Dreher |
| Publisher | : Academic Press |
| Total Pages | : 442 |
| Release | : 2016-09-27 |
| Genre | : Medical |
| ISBN | : 0128053313 |
Decision Neuroscience addresses fundamental questions about how the brain makes perceptual, value-based, and more complex decisions in non-social and social contexts. This book presents compelling neuroimaging, electrophysiological, lesional, and neurocomputational models in combination with hormonal and genetic approaches, which have led to a clearer understanding of the neural mechanisms behind how the brain makes decisions. The five parts of the book address distinct but inter-related topics and are designed to serve both as classroom introductions to major subareas in decision neuroscience and as advanced syntheses of all that has been accomplished in the last decade. Part I is devoted to anatomical, neurophysiological, pharmacological, and optogenetics animal studies on reinforcement-guided decision making, such as the representation of instructions, expectations, and outcomes; the updating of action values; and the evaluation process guiding choices between prospective rewards. Part II covers the topic of the neural representations of motivation, perceptual decision making, and value-based decision making in humans, combining neurcomputational models and brain imaging studies. Part III focuses on the rapidly developing field of social decision neuroscience, integrating recent mechanistic understanding of social decisions in both non-human primates and humans. Part IV covers clinical aspects involving disorders of decision making that link together basic research areas including systems, cognitive, and clinical neuroscience; this part examines dysfunctions of decision making in neurological and psychiatric disorders, such as Parkinson's disease, schizophrenia, behavioral addictions, and focal brain lesions. Part V focuses on the roles of various hormones (cortisol, oxytocin, ghrelin/leptine) and genes that underlie inter-individual differences observed with stress, food choices, and social decision-making processes. The volume is essential reading for anyone interested in decision making neuroscience. With contributions that are forward-looking assessments of the current and future issues faced by researchers, Decision Neuroscience is essential reading for anyone interested in decision-making neuroscience. - Provides comprehensive coverage of approaches to studying individual and social decision neuroscience, including primate neurophysiology, brain imaging in healthy humans and in various disorders, and genetic and hormonal influences on decision making - Covers multiple levels of analysis, from molecular mechanisms to neural-systems dynamics and computational models of how we make choices - Discusses clinical implications of process dysfunctions, including schizophrenia, Parkinson's disease, eating disorders, drug addiction, and pathological gambling - Features chapters from top international researchers in the field and full-color presentation throughout with numerous illustrations to highlight key concepts
| Author | : Lawrence Maisel |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 276 |
| Release | : 2013-09-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1118240154 |
Discover the breakthrough tool your company can use to make winning decisions This forward-thinking book addresses the emergence of predictive business analytics, how it can help redefine the way your organization operates, and many of the misconceptions that impede the adoption of this new management capability. Filled with case examples, Predictive Business Analytics defines ways in which specific industries have applied these techniques and tools and how predictive business analytics can complement other financial applications such as budgeting, forecasting, and performance reporting. Examines how predictive business analytics can help your organization understand its various drivers of performance, their relationship to future outcomes, and improve managerial decision-making Looks at how to develop new insights and understand business performance based on extensive use of data, statistical and quantitative analysis, and explanatory and predictive modeling Written for senior financial professionals, as well as general and divisional senior management Visionary and effective, Predictive Business Analytics reveals how you can use your business's skills, technologies, tools, and processes for continuous analysis of past business performance to gain forward-looking insight and drive business decisions and actions.
| Author | : Daniel Kahneman |
| Publisher | : Farrar, Straus and Giroux |
| Total Pages | : 511 |
| Release | : 2011-10-25 |
| Genre | : Psychology |
| ISBN | : 1429969350 |
*Major New York Times Bestseller *More than 2.6 million copies sold *One of The New York Times Book Review's ten best books of the year *Selected by The Wall Street Journal as one of the best nonfiction books of the year *Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient *Daniel Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's best-selling The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, world-famous psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Topping bestseller lists for almost ten years, Thinking, Fast and Slow is a contemporary classic, an essential book that has changed the lives of millions of readers.
| Author | : Michael Abramowicz |
| Publisher | : Yale University Press |
| Total Pages | : 364 |
| Release | : 2008-10-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0300144954 |
Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based upon such predictions. This text explores how institutions might improve their predictions and arrive at better decisions by means of prediction markets.
| Author | : Paul W. Glimcher |
| Publisher | : Academic Press |
| Total Pages | : 606 |
| Release | : 2013-08-13 |
| Genre | : Psychology |
| ISBN | : 0123914698 |
In the years since it first published, Neuroeconomics: Decision Making and the Brain has become the standard reference and textbook in the burgeoning field of neuroeconomics. The second edition, a nearly complete revision of this landmark book, will set a new standard. This new edition features five sections designed to serve as both classroom-friendly introductions to each of the major subareas in neuroeconomics, and as advanced synopses of all that has been accomplished in the last two decades in this rapidly expanding academic discipline. The first of these sections provides useful introductions to the disciplines of microeconomics, the psychology of judgment and decision, computational neuroscience, and anthropology for scholars and students seeking interdisciplinary breadth. The second section provides an overview of how human and animal preferences are represented in the mammalian nervous systems. Chapters on risk, time preferences, social preferences, emotion, pharmacology, and common neural currencies—each written by leading experts—lay out the foundations of neuroeconomic thought. The third section contains both overview and in-depth chapters on the fundamentals of reinforcement learning, value learning, and value representation. The fourth section, "The Neural Mechanisms for Choice, integrates what is known about the decision-making architecture into state-of-the-art models of how we make choices. The final section embeds these mechanisms in a larger social context, showing how these mechanisms function during social decision-making in both humans and animals. The book provides a historically rich exposition in each of its chapters and emphasizes both the accomplishments and the controversies in the field. A clear explanatory style and a single expository voice characterize all chapters, making core issues in economics, psychology, and neuroscience accessible to scholars from all disciplines. The volume is essential reading for anyone interested in neuroeconomics in particular or decision making in general. - Editors and contributing authors are among the acknowledged experts and founders in the field, making this the authoritative reference for neuroeconomics - Suitable as an advanced undergraduate or graduate textbook as well as a thorough reference for active researchers - Introductory chapters on economics, psychology, neuroscience, and anthropology provide students and scholars from any discipline with the keys to understanding this interdisciplinary field - Detailed chapters on subjects that include reinforcement learning, risk, inter-temporal choice, drift-diffusion models, game theory, and prospect theory make this an invaluable reference - Published in association with the Society for Neuroeconomics—www.neuroeconomics.org - Full-color presentation throughout with numerous carefully selected illustrations to highlight key concepts
| Author | : Nikhil Gurjar |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 414 |
| Release | : 2016-08-09 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 9811007829 |
This book is intended as a basis for advanced treatment of concepts in project management. In the current scenario where most questions are answered through the internet, the knowledge element in project management has come under the influence of disruptive technologies. In other words, project managers no longer get 'points' for knowing something that is easily available on the internet. This has far-reaching consequences. The present day project managers need to orient themselves to newer benchmarks of what is required for success on the business front. This book deals with a few such advanced concepts in project management. This book is not designed as an elementary primer to the field of project management, rather it is an advanced level treatment on the subject, to be read after the preliminary study has already been completed. The book is designed for practicing project managers, and graduate students in engineering and management, who need to understand the dynamics that are typically encountered in a project-based environment. The content in the book is based on extensive study of literature and training programs. Many of the tools have been developed on the basis of modeling and simulation methods that are specially designed by the author. These were tested at several live projects across the globe. Most of the exercises in the book are actually meant for the reader to perform as they go. The book is not designed with a ‘read-all-and-come-back-later’ approach, rather it focuses on ‘learning by doing’, whereby the reader is expected to do the exercises before reading on. The book will prove useful in self-learning, as well as in classroom teaching and professional training programs.
| Author | : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 408 |
| Release | : 2019-04-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3030052524 |
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
