Forecasting With Judgment
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| Author | : Philip E. Tetlock |
| Publisher | : Crown |
| Total Pages | : 331 |
| Release | : 2015-09-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 080413670X |
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
| Author | : J.S. Armstrong |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 880 |
| Release | : 2001 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780792374015 |
This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
| Author | : Philip E. Tetlock |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 368 |
| Release | : 2017-08-29 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1400888816 |
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
| Author | : John D. Lee |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 659 |
| Release | : 2013-03-07 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 0199757186 |
This handbook is the first to provide comprehensive coverage of original state-of-the-science research, analysis, and design of integrated, human-technology systems.
| Author | : Charles W. Chase |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 335 |
| Release | : 2009-07-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470531010 |
Praise for Demand-Driven Forecasting A Structured Approach to Forecasting "There are authors of advanced forecasting books who take an academic approach to explaining forecast modeling that focuses on the construction of arcane algorithms and mathematical proof that are not very useful for forecasting practitioners. Then, there are other authors who take a general approach to explaining demand planning, but gloss over technical content required of modern forecasters. Neither of these approaches is well-suited for helping business forecasters critically identify the best demand data sources, effectively apply appropriate statistical forecasting methods, and properly design efficient demand planning processes. In Demand-Driven Forecasting, Chase fills this void in the literature and provides the reader with concise explanations for advanced statistical methods and credible business advice for improving ways to predict demand for products and services. Whether you are an experienced professional forecasting manager, or a novice forecast analyst, you will find this book a valuable resource for your professional development." —Daniel Kiely, Senior Manager, Epidemiology, Forecasting & Analytics, Celgene Corporation "Charlie Chase has given forecasters a clear, responsible approach for ending the timeless tug of war between the need for 'forecast rigor' and the call for greater inclusion of 'client judgment.' By advancing the use of 'domain knowledge' and hypothesis testing to enrich base-case forecasts, he has empowered professional forecasters to step up and impact their companies' business results favorably and profoundly, all the while enhancing the organizational stature of forecasters broadly." —Bob Woodard, Vice President, Global Consumer and Customer Insights, Campbell Soup Company
| Author | : Paul Goodwin |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 496 |
| Release | : 2014-05-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1118740734 |
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.
| Author | : Daniel Kahneman |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 574 |
| Release | : 1982-04-30 |
| Genre | : Psychology |
| ISBN | : 9780521284141 |
Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.
| Author | : Karen Donohue |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 688 |
| Release | : 2018-11-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1119138302 |
A comprehensive review of behavioral operations management that puts the focus on new and trending research in the field The Handbook of Behavioral Operations offers a comprehensive resource that fills the gap in the behavioral operations management literature. This vital text highlights best practices in behavioral operations research and identifies the most current research directions and their applications. A volume in the Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science, this book contains contributions from an international panel of scholars from a wide variety of backgrounds who are conducting behavioral research. The handbook provides succinct tutorials on common methods used to conduct behavioral research, serves as a resource for current topics in behavioral operations research, and as a guide to the use of new research methods. The authors review the fundamental theories and offer frameworks from a psychological, systems dynamics, and behavioral economic standpoint. They provide a crucial grounding for behavioral operations as well as an entry point for new areas of behavioral research. The handbook also presents a variety of behavioral operations applications that focus on specific areas of study and includes a survey of current and future research needs. This important resource: Contains a summary of the methodological foundations and in-depth treatment of research best practices in behavioral research. Provides a comprehensive review of the research conducted over the past two decades in behavioral operations, including such classic topics as inventory management, supply chain contracting, forecasting, and competitive sourcing. Covers a wide-range of current topics and applications including supply chain risk, responsible and sustainable supply chain, health care operations, culture and trust. Connects existing bodies of behavioral operations literature with related fields, including psychology and economics. Provides a vision for future behavioral research in operations. Written for academicians within the operations management community as well as for behavioral researchers, The Handbook of Behavioral Operations offers a comprehensive resource for the study of how individuals make decisions in an operational context with contributions from experts in the field.
| Author | : Don A. Moore |
| Publisher | : HarperCollins |
| Total Pages | : 260 |
| Release | : 2020-05-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0062887777 |
An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business helps readers calibrate their confidence, arguing that some confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth. A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble. Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives. Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor? Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.
| Author | : Jae K. Shim |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 450 |
| Release | : 2008-12-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470454350 |
If the very thought of budgets pushes your sanity over the limit, then this practical, easy-to-use guide is just what you need. Budgeting Basics and Beyond, Third Edition equips you with an all-in-one resource guaranteed to make the budgeting process easier, less stressful, and more effective. Written by Jae Shim and Joel Siegel, the new edition covers Balanced Scorecard, budgeting for nonprofit organizations, business simulations for executive and management training, and much more!
