Forecasting Under Structural Breaks Using Improved Weighted Estimation
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Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty
| Author | : David E. Rapach |
| Publisher | : Emerald Group Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 691 |
| Release | : 2008-02-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 044452942X |
Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.
Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Discrete Structural Breaks Under Long Memory
| Author | : Mwasi Paza Mboya |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2022 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
We develop methods to obtain optimal forecast under long memory in the presence of a discrete structural break based on different weighting schemes for the observations. We observe significant changes in the forecasts when long-range dependence is taken into account. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we confirm that our methods substantially improve the forecasting performance under long memory. We further present an empirical application to in inflation rates that emphasizes the importance of our methods.
Forecasting Economic Time Series
| Author | : Michael Clements |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 402 |
| Release | : 1998-10-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780521634809 |
This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Econometrics of Structural Change
| Author | : Walter Krämer |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 134 |
| Release | : 2012-12-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3642484123 |
Econometric models are made up of assumptions which never exactly match reality. Among the most contested ones is the requirement that the coefficients of an econometric model remain stable over time. Recent years have therefore seen numerous attempts to test for it or to model possible structural change when it can no longer be ignored. This collection of papers from Empirical Economics mirrors part of this development. The point of departure of most studies in this volume is the standard linear regression model Yt = x;fJt + U (t = I, ... , 1), t where notation is obvious and where the index t emphasises the fact that structural change is mostly discussed and encountered in a time series context. It is much less of a problem for cross section data, although many tests apply there as well. The null hypothesis of most tests for structural change is that fJt = fJo for all t, i.e. that the same regression applies to all time periods in the sample and that the disturbances u are well behaved. The well known Chow test for instance assumes t that there is a single structural shift at a known point in time, i.e. that fJt = fJo (t
Testing for Structural Breaks in Dynamic Factor Models
| Author | : Jörg Breitung |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 68 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
From time to time, economies undergo far-reaching structural changes. In this paper we investigate the consequences of structural breaks in the factor loadings for the specification and estimation of factor models based on principal components and suggest test procedures for structural breaks. It is shown that structural breaks severely inflate the number of factors identified by the usual information criteria. Based on the strict factor model the hypothesis of a structural break is tested by using Likelihood-Ratio, Lagrange-Multiplier and Wald statistics. The LM test which is shown to perform best in our Monte Carlo simulations, is generalized to factor models where the common factors and idiosyncratic components are serially correlated. We also apply the suggested test procedure to a US dataset used in Stock and Watson (2005) and a euro-area dataset described in Altissimo et al. (2007). We find evidence that the beginning of the so-called Great Moderation in the US as well as the Maastricht treaty and the handover of monetary policy from the European national central banks to the ECB coincide with structural breaks in the factor loadings. Ignoring these breaks may yield misleading results if the empirical analysis focuses on the interpretation of common factors or on the transmission of common shocks to the variables of interest.
The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting
| Author | : Michael P. Clements |
| Publisher | : OUP USA |
| Total Pages | : 732 |
| Release | : 2011-07-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0195398645 |
Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Structural Break Threshold Vars for Predicting Us Recessions Using the Spread
| Author | : Ana Beatriz Galvão |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 31 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the leading indicator. Estimation and model selection procedures allow to estimate and to identify time varying non-linearity in a VAR. The structural break threshold VAR (SBTVAR) predicts better the timing of recessions than models with constant threshold or with only a break. Using real-time data, the SBTVAR with spread as leading indicator is able to anticipate correctly the timing of the 2001 recession.
