Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods

Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods
Author: Eric Ghysels
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 617
Release: 2018
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0190622016
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Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting.

Forecasting Forest Futures

Forecasting Forest Futures
Author: Hamish Kimmins
Publisher: Earthscan
Total Pages: 305
Release: 2010
Genre: Nature
ISBN: 1849776431
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Modelling is an important tool for understanding the complexity of forest ecosystems and the variety of interactions of ecosystem components, processes and values. This book describes the hybrid approach to modelling forest ecosystems and their possible response to natural and management-induced disturbance. The book describes the FORECAST family of ecosystem management models at three different spatial scales (tree, stand and landscape), and compares them with alternative models at these three spatial scales. The book will help forest managers to understand what to expect from ecosystem-based forest models; serve as a tool for use in teaching about sustainability, scenario analysis and value trade-offs in natural resources management; and assist policy makers, managers and researches working in assessment of sustainable forest management and ecosystem management. Several real-life examples of using the FORECAST family of models in forest management and other applications are presented from countries including Canada, China, Spain and the USA, to illustrate the concepts described in the text. The book also demonstrates how these models can be extended for scenario and value trade-off analysis through visualization and educational or management games.

Forecasting for Technologists and Engineers

Forecasting for Technologists and Engineers
Author: Brian C. Twiss
Publisher: IET
Total Pages: 246
Release: 1992
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 9780863412851
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This book is written for all technologists and engineers. To those unfamiliar with forecasting it may appear a somewhat esoteric activity with little relevance to the everyday technical concerns of the reader. This is not so. The aim of this book is to show how forecasting can improve the quality of technical decision making. Furthermore, this can be accomplished without the use of highly sophisticated techniques which can only be applied by specialists. The approaches described in this book can be easily understood and used by all its readers.

The Definitive Guide to Modern Supply Chain Management (Collection)

The Definitive Guide to Modern Supply Chain Management (Collection)
Author: Chad W. Autry
Publisher: FT Press
Total Pages: 1109
Release: 2013-07-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0133474615
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A brand new collection of state-of-the-art guides to more effective supply chain management… 4 pioneering books, now in a convenient e-format, at a great price! 4 up-to-the-minute books help you build and optimize agile, flexible, efficient global supply chains — in the face of any challenge! As a supply chain or operations professional, you face unprecedented challenges in delivering the agile, resilient, efficient supply chain your company needs. This indispensable 4-book package gives you unprecedented resources, best practices, tools, and case studies for managing each of these challenges. Global Macrotrends and Their Impact on Supply Chain Management shows how to manage supply and demand in the face of massively disruptive emerging societal, technological, geopolitical, and environmental macro trends. You’ll find a complete decision framework and practical tools, insights, and guidance for systematically mitigating new risks and building long-term competitive advantage. Step by step, you’ll walk through assessing and responding to population growth, migration, urbanization; socioeconomic change, global connectivity, environmental issues, geopolitics, growing scarcity, transportation congestion, aging infrastructure, and more. Next, Supply Chain Network Design helps you use strategic network design techniques to drive dramatic new savings throughout your supply chain. The authors, who are experts at IBM and Northwestern University, combine rigorous principles and practical applications, helping you optimize the right number, location, territory, and size of warehouses, plants, and production lines; and optimize product flow through even the most complex global supply chains. They help you manage tradeoffs such as cost vs. service level, improve operational decision-making through analytics; and re-optimize regularly for even greater savings. Then, Demand and Supply Integration shows how to implement world-class demand forecasting management, and effectively integrate it into comprehensive Demand and Supply Integration (DSI) processes. You’ll learn how to recognize failures of demand/supply integration, approach Demand Forecasting as a management process, and choose and apply the best forecasting techniques. You’ll discover how to thoroughly reflect market intelligence in forecasts; measure forecasting performance; implement advanced demand forecasting systems; manage Demand Reviews, and more. Finally, The Supply Chain Management Casebook brings together 30 up-to-date, focused case studies illuminating every aspect of modern supply chain management — from procurement to warehousing, strategy to risk management, IT to supplier selection and ethics. Contributors present key challenges in industries ranging from pharmaceuticals to fashion, and preview issues ranging from the “limits of lean” to the potential of 3-D printing. Both qualitative and quantitative cases are included; quantitative cases are supported by completed numerical solutions, and, where applicable, associated spreadsheets. From supply chain experts Chad W. Autry, Thomas J. Goldsby, John E. Bell, Michael Watson, Sara Lewis, Peter Cacioppi, Jay Jayaraman, Mark A. Moon, and Chuck Munson

Forecasting

Forecasting
Author: Jennifer Castle
Publisher: Yale University Press
Total Pages: 228
Release: 2019-06-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0300244665
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Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive--this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve's record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.

Supply Chain Planning and Analytics

Supply Chain Planning and Analytics
Author: Gerald Feigin
Publisher: Business Expert Press
Total Pages: 174
Release: 2011-08-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1606492462
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Every company must continually wrestle with the problem of deciding the right quantity and mix of products or services that it should produce as well as when and where to produce them. The problem is challenging because the decision must be made with uncertain and conflicting information about future demand, available production capacity, and sources of supply. The decision is in fact a highly complex balancing act, involving tradeoffs along many dimensions - for example, inventory targets vs. customer service levels, older products vs. newer ones, direct customers vs. channel partners - and requiring the compromise of constituents - sales, marketing, operations, procurement, product development, finance, as well as suppliers and customers - with varied objectives. The ability of a company to nimbly navigate this decision process without giving too much influence to any of the parties involved largely determines how well the company can respond to changing market conditions and ultimately whether the company will continue to thrive. This book focuses on the complex challenges of supply chain planning - the set of business processes that companies use for planning to meet future demand. Supply chain planning comprises a variety of planning processes within an organization: demand planning, sales & operations planning, inventory planning, promotion planning, supply planning, production planning, distribution planning, and capacity planning. Of course, not all companies engage in all of these planning activities and they may refer to these activities by other names but they all struggle with the on-going effort of matching demand with supply. Many textbooks address supply chain planning problems and present mathematical tools and methods for solving certain classes of problems. This book is intended to complement these texts by focusing not on the mathematical models but on the problems that arise in practice that either these models do not adequately address or that make applying the models difficult or impossible. The book is not intended to provide pat solutions to these problems, but more to highlight the complexities and subtleties involved and describe ways to overcome practical issues that have worked for some companies.

Investing with the Trend

Investing with the Trend
Author: Gregory L. Morris
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 496
Release: 2013-12-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118508378
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Investing with the Trend provides an abundance of evidence for adapting a rules-based approach to investing by offering something most avoid, and that is to answer the “why” one would do it this way. It explains the need to try to participate in the good markets and avoid the bad markets, with cash being considered an asset class. The book is in three primary sections and tries to leave no stone unturned in offering almost 40 years of experience in the markets. Part I – The focus is on much of the misinformation in modern finance, the inappropriate use of Gaussian statistics, the faulty assumptions with Modern Portfolio Theory, and a host of other examples. The author attempts to explain each and offer justification for his often strong opinions. Part II – After a lead chapter on the merits of technical analysis, the author offers detailed research into trend analysis, showing how to identify if a market is trending or not and how to measure it. Further research involves the concept of Drawdown, which the author adamantly states is a better measure of investor risk than the oft used and terribly wrong use of volatility as determined by standard deviation. Part III – This is where he puts it all together and shows the reader all of the steps and details on how to create a rules-based trend following investment strategy. A solid disciplined strategy consists of three parts, a measure of what the market is actually doing, a set of rules and guidelines to tell you how to invest based upon that measurement, and the discipline to follow the strategy

Demand and Supply Integration

Demand and Supply Integration
Author: Mark A. Moon
Publisher: FT Press
Total Pages: 305
Release: 2013-01-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0133088030
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Supply chain professionals: master pioneering techniques for integrating demand and supply, and create demand forecasts that are far more accurate and useful! In Demand and Supply Integration, Dr. Mark Moon presents the specific design characteristics of a world-class demand forecasting management process, showing how to effectively integrate demand forecasting within a comprehensive Demand and Supply Integration (DSI) process. Writing for supply chain professionals in any business, government agency, or military procurement organization, Moon explains what DSI is, how it differs from approaches such as SandOP, and how to recognize the symptoms of failures to sufficiently integrate demand and supply. He outlines the key characteristics of successful DSI implementations, shows how to approach Demand Forecasting as a management process, and guides you through understanding, selecting, and applying the best available qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques. You'll learn how to thoroughly reflect market intelligence in your forecasts; measure your forecasting performance; implement state-of-the-art demand forecasting systems; manage Demand Reviews, and much more. For wide audiences of supply chain, logistics, and operations management professionals at all levels, from analyst and manager to Director, Vice President, and Chief Supply Chain Officer; and for researchers and graduate students in the field.

Competition

Competition
Author: Emilio Cvitkovic
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 322
Release: 2016-07-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1349128570
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The book is an iconoclastic overview of the art of analyzing industries and competition. The book examines the capabilities of several complex business tools such as decision analysis, accounting, and other 'MBA-science' disciplines, and translates them into commonsensical concepts such as competitive strengths, uncertainty, complexity and 'results'.