Forecasting Migrant Remittances During the Global Financial Crisis

Forecasting Migrant Remittances During the Global Financial Crisis
Author: Sanket Mohapatra
Publisher:
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.

Migration and Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond

Migration and Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond
Author: Ibrahim Sirkeci
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 470
Release: 2012-05-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0821388274

During the 2008 financial crisis, the possible changes in remittance-sending behavior and potential avenues to alleviate a probable decline in remittance flows became concerns. This book brings together a wide array of studies from around the world focusing on the recent trends in remittance flows. The authors have gathered a select group of researchers from academic, practitioner and policy making bodies. Thus the book can be seen as a conversation between the different stakeholders involved in or affected by remittance flows globally. The book is a first-of-its-kind attempt to analyze the effects of an ongoing crisis on remittance flows globally. Data analyzed by the book reveals three trends. First, The more diversified the destinations and the labour markets for migrants the more resilient are the remittances sent by migrants. Second, the lower the barriers to labor mobility, the stronger the link between remittances and economic cycles in that corridor. And third, as remittances proved to be relatively resilient in comparison to private capital flows, many remittance-dependent countries became even more dependent on remittance inflows for meeting external financing needs. There are several reasons for migration and remittances to be relatively resilient to the crisis. First, remittances are sent by the stock (cumulative flows) of migrants, not only by the recent arrivals (in fact, recent arrivals often do not remit as regularly as they must establish themselves in their new homes). Second, contrary to expectations, return migration did not take place as expected even as the financial crisis reduced employment opportunities in the US and Europe. Third, in addition to the persistence of migrant stocks that lent persistence to remittance flows, existing migrants often absorbed income shocks and continued to send money home. Fourth, if some migrants did return or had the intention to return, they tended to take their savings back to their country of origin. Finally, exchange rate movements during the crisis caused unexpected changes in remittance behavior: as local currencies of many remittance recipient countries depreciated sharply against the US dollar, they produced a sale effect on remittance behavior of migrants in the US and other destination countries.

The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa

The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa
Author: Mr.Ralph Chami
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2010-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145196241X

Using data on the distribution of migrants from Africa, GDP growth forecasts for host countries, and after estimating remittance multipliers in recipient countries, this paper estimates the impact of the global economic crisis on African GDP via the remittance channel during 2009-2010. It forecasts remittance declines into African countries of between 3 and 14 percentage points, with migrants to Europe hardest hit while migrants within Africa relatively unaffected by the crisis. The estimated impact on GDP for relatively remittance-dependent countries is 2 percent for 2009, but will likely be short-lived, as host country income is projected to rise in 2010.

Global Economic Prospects 2006

Global Economic Prospects 2006
Author:
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 182
Release:
Genre:
ISBN: 082136345X

International migration, the movement of people across international boundaries to improve economic opportunity, has enormous implications for growth and welfare in both origin and destination countries. An important benefit to developing countries is the receipt of remittances or transfers from income earned by overseas emigrants. Official data show that development countries' remittance receipts totaled 160 billion in 2004, more than twice the size of official aid. This year's edition of Global Economic Prospects focuses on remittances and migration. The bulk of the book covers remittances.

Financing the Family

Financing the Family
Author: Inter-American Development Bank
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 284
Release: 2013-07-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137333073

Interest in learning how to make the most of the potential developmental benefits of remittance flows has grown worldwide. Financing the Family adds to that body of knowledge with a summary of recent research that emphasizes experimental approaches, focuses on Central America, and analyzes the impact of the recent financial crisis.

How Do Migration and Remittances Affect Inequality? A Case Study of Mexico

How Do Migration and Remittances Affect Inequality? A Case Study of Mexico
Author: Zsoka Koczan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2018-06-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484361636

The poverty-reducing effects of remittances have been well-documented, however, their effects on inequality are less clear. This paper examines the impact of remittances on inequality in Mexico using household-level information on the receiving side. It hopes to speak to their insurance role by examining how remittances are affected by domestic and external crises: the 1994 Mexican Peso crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. We find that remittances lower inequality, and that they become more pro-poor over time as migration opportunities become more widespread. This also strengthens their insurance effects, mitigating some of the negative impact of shocks on the poorest.

Migration and Remittances During the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond

Migration and Remittances During the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond
Author: İbrahim Sirkeci
Publisher:
Total Pages: 437
Release: 2012
Genre: Emigrant remittances
ISBN: 9786613693327

During the 2008 financial crisis, the possible changes in remittance-sending behavior and potential avenues to alleviate a probable decline in remittance flows became concerns. This book brings together a wide array of studies from around the world focusing on the recent trends in remittance flows. The authors have gathered a select group of researchers from academic, practitioner and policy making bodies. Thus the book can be seen as a conversation between the different stakeholders involved in or affected by remittance flows globally. The book is a first-of-its-kind attempt to analyze the effects of an ongoing crisis on remittance flows globally.

Case Study on South-South Cooperation: PRC-ADB Knowledge-Sharing Platform

Case Study on South-South Cooperation: PRC-ADB Knowledge-Sharing Platform
Author: Asian Development Bank
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Total Pages: 272
Release: 2012-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9290928336

This publication showcases the beginnings of the People‘s Republic of China–Asian Development Bank knowledge sharing platform, its context, activities, challenges, and lessons learned. It concludes by mapping out the next steps to bring it to its strategic mission.