Forecasting Demand For Electric Energy
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| Author | : Maria Jacob |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 108 |
| Release | : 2019-09-25 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 303028669X |
The overarching aim of this open access book is to present self-contained theory and algorithms for investigation and prediction of electric demand peaks. A cross-section of popular demand forecasting algorithms from statistics, machine learning and mathematics is presented, followed by extreme value theory techniques with examples. In order to achieve carbon targets, good forecasts of peaks are essential. For instance, shifting demand or charging battery depends on correct demand predictions in time. Majority of forecasting algorithms historically were focused on average load prediction. In order to model the peaks, methods from extreme value theory are applied. This allows us to study extremes without making any assumption on the central parts of demand distribution and to predict beyond the range of available data. While applied on individual loads, the techniques described in this book can be extended naturally to substations, or to commercial settings. Extreme value theory techniques presented can be also used across other disciplines, for example for predicting heavy rainfalls, wind speed, solar radiation and extreme weather events. The book is intended for students, academics, engineers and professionals that are interested in short term load prediction, energy data analytics, battery control, demand side response and data science in general.
| Author | : H. Lee Willis |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 770 |
| Release | : 2002-08-09 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 9780203910764 |
Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition offers increased coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.
| Author | : Lorenz M. Hilty |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 465 |
| Release | : 2014-08-06 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 3319092286 |
ICT Innovations for Sustainability is an investigation of how information and communication technology can contribute to sustainable development. It presents clear definitions of sustainability, suggesting conceptual frameworks for the positive and negative effects of ICT on sustainable development. It reviews methods of assessing the direct and indirect impact of ICT systems on energy and materials demand, and examines the results of such assessments. In addition, it investigates ICT-based approaches to supporting sustainable patterns of production and consumption, analyzing them at various levels of abstraction – from end-user devices, Internet infrastructure, user behavior, and social practices to macro-economic indicators. Combining approaches from Computer Science, Information Systems, Human-Computer Interaction, Economics, and Environmental Sciences, the book presents a new, holistic perspective on ICT for Sustainability (ICT4S). It is an indispensable resource for anyone working in the area of ICT for Energy Efficiency, Life Cycle Assessment of ICT, Green IT, Green Information Systems, Environmental Informatics, Energy Informatics, Sustainable HCI, or Computational Sustainability.
| Author | : Lyna L. Wiggins |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 608 |
| Release | : 1981 |
| Genre | : Dissertations, Academic |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Mohammad Shahidehpour |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 552 |
| Release | : 2003-05-28 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 0471463949 |
An essential overview of post-deregulation market operations inelectrical power systems Until recently the U.S. electricity industry was dominated byvertically integrated utilities. It is now evolving into adistributive and competitive market driven by market forces andincreased competition. With electricity amounting to a $200 billionper year market in the United States, the implications of thisrestructuring will naturally affect the rest of the world. Why is restructuring necessary? What are the components ofrestructuring? How is the new structure different from the oldmonopoly? How are the participants strategizing their options tomaximize their revenues? What are the market risks and how are theyevaluated? How are interchange transactions analyzed and approved?Starting with a background sketch of the industry, this hands-onreference provides insights into the new trends in power systemsoperation and control, and highlights advanced issues in thefield. Written for both technical and nontechnical professionals involvedin power engineering, finance, and marketing, this must-haveresource discusses: * Market structure and operation of electric power systems * Load and price forecasting and arbitrage * Price-based unit commitment and security constrained unitcommitment * Market power analysis and game theory applications * Ancillary services auction market design * Transmission pricing and congestion Using real-world case studies, this timely survey offers engineers,consultants, researchers, financial managers, university professorsand students, and other professionals in the industry acomprehensive review of electricity restructuring and how itsradical effects will shape the market.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 74 |
| Release | : 1986 |
| Genre | : Energy consumption |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : B. Chateau |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2011-12-31 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9783709186411 |
The fIrst oil crisis of 1973-74 and the questions it raised in the economic and social fIelds drew attention to energy issues. Industrial societies, accustomed for two decades or more to energy sufficiently easy to produce and cheap to consume that it was thought to be inexhaustible, began to question their energy future. The studies undertaken at that time, and since, on a national, regional, or world level were over-optimistic. The problem seemed simple enough to solve. On the one hand, a certain number of resources: coal, the abundance of which was discovered, or rather rediscovered oil, source of all the problems ... In fact, the problems seemed to come, if not from oil itself (an easy explanation), then from those who produced it without really owning it, and from those who owned it without really control ling it natural gas, second only to oil and less compromised uranium, all of whose promises had not been kept, but whose resources were not in question solar energy, multiform and really inexhaustible thermonuclear fusion, and geothermal energy, etc. On the other hand, energy consumption, though excessive perhaps, was symbolic of progress, development, and increased well being. The originality of the energy policies set up since 1974 lies in the fact they no longer aimed to produce (or import) more, but to consume less. They sought, and still seek, what might be emphatically called the control of energy consump tion, or rather the control of energy demand.
| Author | : Antonio Gabaldón |
| Publisher | : MDPI |
| Total Pages | : 324 |
| Release | : 2021-02-26 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 303943442X |
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in the formulation of economic, reliable, and secure operating strategies (planning, scheduling, maintenance, and control processes, among others) for a power system and will be significant in the future. However, there is still much to do in these research areas. The deployment of enabling technologies (e.g., smart meters) has made high-granularity data available for many customer segments and to approach many issues, for instance, to make forecasting tasks feasible at several demand aggregation levels. The first challenge is the improvement of STLF models and their performance at new aggregation levels. Moreover, the mix of renewables in the power system, and the necessity to include more flexibility through demand response initiatives have introduced greater uncertainties, which means new challenges for STLF in a more dynamic power system in the 2030–50 horizon. Many techniques have been proposed and applied for STLF, including traditional statistical models and AI techniques. Besides, distribution planning needs, as well as grid modernization, have initiated the development of hierarchical load forecasting. Analogously, the need to face new sources of uncertainty in the power system is giving more importance to probabilistic load forecasting. This Special Issue deals with both fundamental research and practical application research on STLF methodologies to face the challenges of a more distributed and customer-centered power system.
| Author | : Rafal Weron |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 192 |
| Release | : 2007-01-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470059990 |
This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.
| Author | : S.A. Soliman |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 441 |
| Release | : 2010-05-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0123815444 |
Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models. Step-by-step guide to model construction Construct, verify, and run short and long term models Accurately evaluate load shape and pricing Creat regional specific electrical load models
