Forecasting And Hedging In The Foreign Exchange Markets
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| Author | : Christian Ullrich |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 206 |
| Release | : 2009-05-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3642004954 |
Historical and recent developments at international ?nancial markets show that it is easy to loose money, while it is dif?cult to predict future developments and op- mize decision-making towards maximizing returns and minimizing risk. One of the reasons of our inability to make reliable predictions and to make optimal decisions is the growing complexity of the global economy. This is especially true for the f- eign exchange market (FX market) which is considered as one of the largest and most liquid ?nancial markets. Its grade of ef?ciencyand its complexityis one of the starting points of this volume. From the high complexity of the FX market, Christian Ullrich deduces the - cessity to use tools from machine learning and arti?cial intelligence, e.g., support vector machines, and to combine such methods with sophisticated ?nancial mod- ing techniques. The suitability of this combination of ideas is demonstrated by an empirical study and by simulation. I am pleased to introduce this book to its - dience, hoping that it will provide the reader with interesting ideas to support the understanding of FX markets and to help to improve risk management in dif?cult times. Moreover, I hope that its publication will stimulate further research to contribute to the solution of the many open questions in this area.
| Author | : I. Moosa |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 420 |
| Release | : 2016-02-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0230379001 |
Forecasting exchange rates is a variable that preoccupies economists, businesses and governments, being more critical to more people than any other variable. In Exchange Rate Forecasting the author sets out to provide a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting - bringing together the various forecasting methods and applying them to the exchange rate in a highly accessible and readable manner. Highly practical in approach, the book provides an understanding of the techniques of forecasting with an emphasis on its applications and use in business decision-making, such as hedging, speculation, investment, financing and capital budgeting. In addition, the author also considers recent developments in the field, notably neural networks and chaos, again, with easy-to-understand explanations of these "rocket science" areas. The practical approach to forecasting is also reflected in the number of examples that pepper the text, whilst descriptions of some of the software packages that are used in practice to generate forecasts are also provided.
| Author | : Callum Henderson |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 264 |
| Release | : 2006-05-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470029730 |
Currency Strategy, Second Edition develops new techniques and explains classic tools available for predicting, managing, and optimizing fluctuations in the currency markets. Author Callum Henderson shows readers ho to use mathematical models to assist in the prediction of crises and gives practical advice on how to use these and other tools successfully. Given there such huge focus on China at the moment, the timing of this new edition is particularly important. The new edition will feature a thorough update on the key developments in the past 3 years, new chapters on emerging markets, an in-depth review of the markets of China and India and their currencies and much more.
| Author | : Perry J. Kaufman |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 866 |
| Release | : 1986-09-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Forbes Magazine called the 1,600-page, original Handbook of Futures Markets ``an exceptionally fine collection of work on every phase of the futures market.'' Now in paperback (and weighing much less than the six-and-a-half pound hardcover edition), this concise version covers the essential principles and methods in the encyclopedic original in 800 pages. Comprising all the material in Parts I through V of the original handbook, this edition brings together the know-how of the markets' foremost authorities. It covers futures markets and their operation; factors that influence the markets; uses of the markets, including hedging, managing interest rate risk, commodity spreads and options; forecasting methods and tools; and risk and money management.
| Author | : Nick Douch |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 160 |
| Release | : 1989 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
A pioneering exploration of the relevance of economic theory to the practical realities of the foreign exchange market, this volume presents a well-reasoned, comprehensive examination of the degree to which economic theories and forecasts are helpful in predicting exchange rates. Douch, an economist who has worked closely with the foreign exchange market, argues that theoretical economic models have exhibited some serious inadequacies in forecasting the future. In an attempt to determine the real predictive value of economic theory in this context, Douch examines each of the different economic approaches in-depth and then analyzes the actual workings of the foreign exchange market from the perspective of the market participants. Particular emphasis is placed upon the reasons for the observed failure of economic theory to reliably predict exchange rate movements over time.
| Author | : Stephen Satchell |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 428 |
| Release | : 2011-02-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0080471420 |
Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets, Third Edition assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition:* What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton* Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo* A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish* Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir* An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey - Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting - International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting - Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling
| Author | : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 184 |
| Release | : 1979 |
| Genre | : Foreign exchange market |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Riad Ajami |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 463 |
| Release | : 2014-12-18 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1317467639 |
The new and updated edition of this widely used text is equally useful for undergraduate and graduate students of international business. Its student-friendly format, detailed coverage of classic and timely topics, and extensive use of case studies make it widely adaptable for different level courses, as well as for educators who prefer either a case study or lecture approach. This edition features new coverage of the Asian financial crisis and the European Union. Its treatment of such topics as foreign exchange, international trade policy, and economic development introduces students to techniques for analysing national economies that are not covered in many competing texts. Ethical and environmental issues are also covered in detail, and all case studies, tables, and figures have been thoroughly revised and updated. Each chapter includes a short case study, while longer, more complex case studies conclude the text. Each chapter also features learning objectives, discussion questions, and references. An online instructor's guide that includes PowerPoints with end-of-chapter answers and maps is available to instructors who adopt the text.
| Author | : Lean Yu |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 323 |
| Release | : 2010-02-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 038771720X |
This book focuses on forecasting foreign exchange rates via artificial neural networks (ANNs), creating and applying the highly useful computational techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to foreign-exchange rate forecasting. The result is an up-to-date review of the most recent research developments in forecasting foreign exchange rates coupled with a highly useful methodological approach to predicting rate changes in foreign currency exchanges.
| Author | : Romain Lafarguette |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 2021-02-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513569406 |
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
