Forecast Based Model Selection In The Presence Of Structural Breaks
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Author | : David E. Rapach |
Publisher | : Emerald Group Publishing |
Total Pages | : 691 |
Release | : 2008-02-29 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1849505403 |
Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.
Author | : Peter Hackl |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 377 |
Release | : 2013-06-29 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3662068249 |
Structural change is a fundamental concept in economic model building. Statistics and econometrics provide the tools for identification of change, for estimating the onset of a change, for assessing its extent and relevance. Statistics and econometrics also have de veloped models that are suitable for picturing the data-generating process in the presence of structural change by assimilating the changes or due to the robustness to its presence. Important subjects in this context are forecasting methods. The need for such methods became obvious when, as a consequence of the oil price shock, the results of empirical analyses suddenly seemed to be much less reliable than before. Nowadays, economists agree that models with fixed structure that picture reality over longer periods are illusions. An example for less dramatic causes than the oil price shock with similarly profound effects is economic growth and its impacts on the economic system. Indeed, economic growth was a motivating concept for this volume. In 1983, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxen burg/ Austria initiated an ambitious project on "Economic Growth and Structural Change".
Author | : Atsushi Inoue |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 60 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : Economic forecasting |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Michael P. Clements |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 732 |
Release | : 2011-06-29 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0199875510 |
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.
Author | : Graham Elliott |
Publisher | : Elsevier |
Total Pages | : 667 |
Release | : 2013-08-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0444627405 |
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Author | : Rob Hyndman |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 362 |
Release | : 2008-06-19 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 3540719180 |
Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.
Author | : Alexander Chudik |
Publisher | : Emerald Group Publishing |
Total Pages | : 360 |
Release | : 2022-01-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1802620613 |
The collection of chapters in Volume 43 Part A of Advances in Econometrics serves as a tribute to one of the most innovative, influential, and productive econometricians of his generation, Professor M. Hashem Pesaran.
Author | : Ivan Jeliazkov |
Publisher | : Emerald Group Publishing |
Total Pages | : 331 |
Release | : 2019-08-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1789732417 |
In honor of Dale J. Poirier, experienced editors Ivan Jeliazkov and Justin Tobias bring together a cast of expert contributors to explore the most up-to-date research on econometrics, including subjects such as panel data models, posterior simulation, and Bayesian models.
Author | : Van-Nam Huynh |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 626 |
Release | : 2015-12-28 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 3319272845 |
This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.
Author | : Dek Terrell |
Publisher | : Emerald Group Publishing |
Total Pages | : 468 |
Release | : 2020-04-15 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1789739578 |
Including contributions spanning a variety of theoretical and applied topics in econometrics, this volume of Advances in Econometrics is published in honour of Cheng Hsiao.