Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts

Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts
Author: Patricia C. O'Brien
Publisher: Forgotten Books
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2017-12-07
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9780332528458

Excerpt from Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts: A Nine-Industry Study Current databases of analysts' forecasts of corporate earnings include predictions from thousands of individuals employed at hundreds of financial service institutions. The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether it is possible to distinguish forecasters with superior ability on the basis of ex Egg; forecast accuracy from panel data. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.

Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts

Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts
Author: Patricia C. O'Brien
Publisher: Nabu Press
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2014-01
Genre:
ISBN: 9781293452356

This is a reproduction of a book published before 1923. This book may have occasional imperfections such as missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. that were either part of the original artifact, or were introduced by the scanning process. We believe this work is culturally important, and despite the imperfections, have elected to bring it back into print as part of our continuing commitment to the preservation of printed works worldwide. We appreciate your understanding of the imperfections in the preservation process, and hope you enjoy this valuable book.

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations
Author: Sundaresh Ramnath
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 125
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601981627

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.

Forecasting Profit

Forecasting Profit
Author: Mike Metcalfe
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 354
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1461522552

This book is about managing the task of forecasting profit. It builds a case for using multiple methods, providing examples of each method, and suggesting practical techniques to use in dealing with the issues and problems of accuracy in profit forecasts. All the elements that infringe on profits (costs, sales, budgeting, investment, and loan default) are examined within this framework. In addition to synthesizing the research, Professor Metcalfe has applied his own research work on forecast modeling and judgmental methods. The final result is a practical reference book for making more accurate profit forecasts.

Individual Differences and Analyst Forecast Accuracy

Individual Differences and Analyst Forecast Accuracy
Author: Wenjuan Xie
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

This study examines the impact of unidentifiable individual differences among financial analysts on the cross section of their earnings forecast accuracy. Various psychological factors, such as decision style and personality traits, are documented to impact individuals' decision making. However, analysts' individual differences in such psychological factors are not captured by identifiable personal attributes employed in finance literature, such as years of experience. In this paper, we employ the concept of analyst fixed effects to control for unidentifiable individual differences. Examining the factors related to forecast accuracy, we document that controlling for these unidentifiable analyst-specific effects improves model fitting, and changes the explanatory power of some of the traditionally used independent variables in the literature. We confirm that the analyst's firm-specific experience, the intensity of following that a firm receives, and the forecast horizon are all significantly and consistently related to forecast accuracy. However, we find that analyst general experience and coverage complexity lose explanatory power when individual differences are controlled for. Furthermore, we document that analyst general experience is not monotonically associated with better accuracy, and that analysts only benefit from increased general experience during the early to middle stages of their career. Finally, we observe that when analysts' individual differences are controlled for, the boldness of a forecast revision is no longer a significant determinant of the improvement of accuracy. This is one of the first studies to highlight the necessity of recognizing individual differences among financial analysts. We argue that this treatment advances the literature of analyst forecast performance, and closely relates financial agents' decision making to psychology theories of decision style and personality.

Handbook of Investors' Behavior during Financial Crises

Handbook of Investors' Behavior during Financial Crises
Author: Fotini Economou
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 516
Release: 2017-06-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0128112530

The Handbook of Investors' Behavior during Financial Crises provides fundamental information about investor behavior during turbulent periods, such the 2000 dot com crash and the 2008 global financial crisis. Contributors share the same behavioral finance tools and techniques while analyzing behaviors across a variety of market structures and asset classes. The volume provides novel insights about the influence and effects of regional differences in market design. Its distinctive approach to studies of financial crises is of key importance in our contemporary financial landscape, even more so since the accelerated process of globalization has rendered the outbreak of financial crises internationally more commonplace compared to previous decades. Encompasses empirical, quantitative and regulation-motivated studies Includes information about retail and institutional investor behavior Analyzes optimal financial structures for the development and growth of specific regional economies

Handbook of Frontier Markets

Handbook of Frontier Markets
Author: Panagiotis Andrikopoulos
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 306
Release: 2016-08-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0128038403

Handbook of Frontier Markets: The European and African Evidence provides novel insights from academic perspectives about the behavior of investors and prices in several frontier markets. It explores finance issues usually reserved for developed and emerging markets in order to gauge whether these issues are relevant and how they manifest themselves in frontier markets. Frontier markets have now become a popular investment class among institutional investors internationally, with major financial services providers establishing index-benchmarks for this market-category. The anticipation for frontier markets is optimistic uncertainty, and many people believe that, given their growth rates, these markets will be economic success stories. Irrespective of their degrees of success, The Handbook of Frontier Markets can help ensure that the increasing international investment diverted to them will aid in their greater integration within the global financial system. Presents topics in the context of frontier markets and uses tests based on established methodologies from finance research Draws from authors who are established university academics Pays particular attention to financial institutions and applications of financial risk models Explores finance issues usually reserved for developed and emerging markets in order to gauge whether these issues are relevant and how they manifest themselves in frontier markets