Five Conundrums

Five Conundrums
Author: Michael a Ratney
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2019-08
Genre:
ISBN: 9781086817843

For the past 8 years, two U.S. administrations, the United Nations (UN), and numerous foreign governments have sought to end the catastrophic war in Syria and reach a negotiated political settlement to the conflict. Their efforts have repeatedly been complicated, even thwarted, by the highly contested and violent politics underlying the conflict, the sheer number of conflict actors inside and outside of Syria, and those actors' diverse and often irreconcilable objectives.Many of the complications for U.S. policy have stemmed from the need for policymakers to focus on three separate but intertwined dimensions of the Syrian conflict, even while policy options to deal with one dimension of the conflict had significant but often unpredictable effects on the others. The first dimension has been the campaign to deal an enduring territorial defeat upon the so-called Islamic State (IS), an element of U.S. policy that enjoyed near unanimous international consensus and adequate means to accomplish the task. The second is the central conflict between the Bashar al-Asad regime and its opponents, an existential power struggle that drew in multiple foreign powers and yielded nearly unimaginable destruction of Syrian property, infrastructure, and lives. And the third is the strategic challenge of Iran and its drive to eliminate U.S. influence in the Middle East.As the United States and other parties sought to navigate these three dimensions of the conflict, a set of paradoxical challenges-conundrums-emerged and, in some cases, made the situation in Syria even more intractable and a solution on terms favorable to U.S. national security even more elusive.This paper discusses five such conundrums. The first is that military, political, and economic pressure on the Asad regime, a principal feature of U.S. and Western policy, in many ways exacerbated problems for Syrian civilians, the Syrian opposition, and Syria's neighbors without yielding political concessions or reforms to the nature of Syrian governance. The second involves the Syrian opposition-though highly fragmented save for most extremist elements and thus an ineffective force for driving political change in Syria, the United States nonetheless continued to accord it considerable international support and legitimacy. The third conundrum deals with the challenges of balancing the U.S. relationship with Turkey, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally, while simultaneously working with a Kurdish-led militia viewed by Turkey as a national security threat. The fourth centers on Russia's involvement in Syria and, specifically, the contradictory need for the United States and Russia to work together in Syria even while the two countries hold opposing views on a continued role for Bashar al-Asad in Syria's governance. And the fifth conundrum is that foreign interventions in the Syrian conflict, including those designed to counter the Asad regime's brutality and hasten a resolution of the conflict, may actually have made the war longer and bloodier, particularly for civilians. This is consistent with the historical experience with foreign intervention in civil wars elsewhere.At the end of the day, foreign involvement in such a complex and volatile situation as Syria yields, almost inevitably, unpredictable consequences. But many of the negative consequences of the Syrian conflict were actually predictable, particularly Asad's brutal reaction to the uprising, his refusal to yield to pressure, Iran and Russia's support for the regime, and the potential for foreign intervention to exacerbate the situation for Syrian civilians. Taken together, the consequences-both predictable and unpredictable-may ultimately prove to outweigh the benefits of involvement.

Five Conundrums: the United States and the Conflict in Syria

Five Conundrums: the United States and the Conflict in Syria
Author: National Defense National Defense University
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2019-07-31
Genre:
ISBN: 9781688668058

For the past 8 years, two U.S. administrations, the United Nations (UN), and numerous foreign governments have sought to end the catastrophic war in Syria and reach a negotiated political settlement to the conflict. Their efforts have repeatedly been complicated, even thwarted, by the highly contested and violent politics underlying the conflict, the sheer number of conflict actors inside and outside of Syria, and those actors' diverse and often irreconcilable objectives.Many of the complications for U.S. policy have stemmed from the need for policymakers to focus on three separate but intertwined dimensions of the Syrian conflict, even while policy options to deal with one dimension of the conflict had significant but often unpredictable effects on the others. The first dimension has been the campaign to deal an enduring territorial defeat upon the so-called Islamic State (IS), an element of U.S. policy that enjoyed near unanimous international consensus and adequate means to accomplish the task. The second is the central conflict between the Bashar al-Asad regime and its opponents, an existential power struggle that drew in multiple foreign powers and yielded nearly unimaginable destruction of Syrian property, infrastructure, and lives. And the third is the strategic challenge of Iran and its drive to eliminate U.S. influence in the Middle East.As the United States and other parties sought to navigate these three dimensions of the conflict, a set of paradoxical challenges--conundrums--emerged and, in some cases, made the situation in Syria even more intractable and a solution on terms favorable to U.S. national security even more elusive.This paper discusses five such conundrums. The first is that military, political, and economic pressure on the Asad regime, a principal feature of U.S. and Western policy, in many ways exacerbated problems for Syrian civilians, the Syrian opposition, and Syria's neighbors without yielding political concessions or reforms to the nature of Syrian governance. The second involves the Syrian opposition--though highly fragmented save for most extremist elements and thus an ineffective force for driving political change in Syria, the United States nonetheless continued to accord it considerable international support and legitimacy. The third conundrum deals with the challenges of balancing the U.S. relationship with Turkey, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally, while simultaneously working with a Kurdish-led militia viewed by Turkey as a national security threat. The fourth centers on Russia's involvement in Syria and, specifically, the contradictory need for the United States and Russia to work together in Syria even while the two countries hold opposing views on a continued role for Bashar al-Asad in Syria's governance. And the fifth conundrum is that foreign interventions in the Syrian conflict, including those designed to counter the Asad regime's brutality and hasten a resolution of the conflict, may actually have made the war longer and bloodier, particularly for civilians. This is consistent with the historical experience with foreign intervention in civil wars elsewhere.

Engaging Displaced Populations in a Future Syrian Transitional Justice Process

Engaging Displaced Populations in a Future Syrian Transitional Justice Process
Author: Grace Mieszkalski
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 188
Release: 2021-08-23
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 3030739708

This book offers an analysis of a prospective transitional justice process in Syria. As the Syrian conflict enters into its tenth year, this book asks how the sustained human rights violations and war crimes could possibly be addressed in a post-conflict setting, particularly in the context of the widespread displacement crisis. Despite a recent movement in scholarship toward bottom-up peacebuilding approaches and participatory transitional justice models, the transitional justice and local peacebuilding nexus remains under-theorized, particularly as it relates to the engagement of displaced populations. This book seeks to address this gap through the conceptualization of a locally driven transitional justice process for Syria that is founded on the integration of refugees and displaced populations. Through offering a series of policy recommendations on how to implement such a process, it aims to make a contribution to building a bridge of exchange between the policy/practitioner world and the academy in this area of study.

Syria from Reform to Revolt

Syria from Reform to Revolt
Author: Raymond Hinnebusch
Publisher: Syracuse University Press
Total Pages: 360
Release: 2015-01-02
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0815653026

When Bashar al-Asad smoothly assumed power in July 2000, just seven days after the death of his father, observers were divided on what this would mean for the country’s foreign and domestic politics. On the one hand, it seemed everything would stay the same: an Asad on top of a political system controlled by secret services and Baathist one-party rule. On the other hand, it looked like everything would be different: a young president with exposure to Western education who, in his inaugural speech, emphasized his determination to modernize Syria. This volume explores the ways in which Asad’s domestic and foreign policy strategies during his first decade in power safeguarded his rule and adapted Syria to the age of globalization. The volume’s contributors examine multiple aspects of Asad’s rule in the 2000s, from power consolidation within the party and control of the opposition to economic reform, co-opting new private charities, and coping with Iraqi refugees. The Syrian regime temporarily succeeded in reproducing its power and legitimacy, in reconstructing its social base, and in managing regional and international challenges. At the same time, contributors clearly detail the shortcomings, inconsistencies, and risks these policies entailed, illustrating why Syria’s tenuous stability came to an abrupt end during the Arab Spring of 2011. This volume presents the work of an international group of scholars from a variety of disciplinary backgrounds. Based on extensive fieldwork and on intimate knowledge of a country whose dynamics often seem complicated and obscure to outside observers, these scholars’ insightful snapshots of Bashar al-Asad’s decade of authoritarian upgrading provide an indispensable resource for understanding the current crisis and its disastrous consequences.

The Responsibility to Protect

The Responsibility to Protect
Author: Ramesh Chandra Thakur
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2011
Genre: Conflict management
ISBN: 9780415781688

The adoption of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) principle by world leaders assembled at the UN summit in 2005 is widely acknowledged to represent one of the great normative advances in international politics since 1945. The author has been involved in this shift from the dominant norm of non-intervention of R2P as an actor, public intellectual and academic and has been a key thinker in this process. These essays represent the author's writings on R2P, including reference to test cases as they arose, such as with Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008.

The Fog of Peace

The Fog of Peace
Author: Jean-Marie Guehenno
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 353
Release: 2015-05-12
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0815726317

No small number of books laud and record the heroic actions of those at war. But the peacekeepers? Who tells their stories? At the beginning of the 1990s, the world exited the cold war and entered an era of great promise for peace and security. Guided by an invigorated United Nations, the international community set out to end conflicts that had flared into vicious civil wars and to unconditionally champion human rights and hold abusers responsible. The stage seemed set for greatness. Today that optimism is shattered. The failure of international engagement in conflict areas ranging from Afghanistan to Congo and Lebanon to Kosovo has turned believers into skeptics. The Fog of Peace is a firsthand reckoning by Jean-Marie Guéhenno, the man who led UN peacekeeping efforts for eight years and has been at the center of all the major crises since the beginning of the 21st century. Guéhenno grapples with the distance between the international community's promise to protect and the reality that our noble aspirations may be beyond our grasp. The author illustrates with personal, concrete examples—from the crises in Afghanistan, Iraq, Congo, Sudan, Darfur, Kosovo, Ivory Coast, Georgia, Lebanon, Haiti, and Syria—the need to accept imperfect outcomes and compromises. He argues that nothing is more damaging than excessive ambition followed by precipitous retrenchment. We can indeed save many thousands of lives, but we need to calibrate our ambitions and stay the course.

Foreign Policy

Foreign Policy
Author: Steve Smith
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 595
Release: 2016
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0198708904

The only introduction to foreign policy to combine theories, actors and cases in one volume.

The Future of Warfare in 2030

The Future of Warfare in 2030
Author: Raphael S. Cohen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 102
Release: 2022-03-31
Genre: History
ISBN: 9781977402950

This report is the overview in a series that seeks to answer questions about the future of warfare, including who might be the United States' adversaries and allies, where conflicts will be fought, and how and why they might occur.

Encyclopedia of Public Administration and Public Policy - 5 Volume Set

Encyclopedia of Public Administration and Public Policy - 5 Volume Set
Author: Domonic A. Bearfield
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 3897
Release: 2020-08-14
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1000031624

Now in its third edition, Encyclopedia of Public Administration and Public Policy remains the definitive source for article-length presentations spanning the fields of public administration and public policy. It includes entries for: Budgeting Bureaucracy Conflict resolution Countries and regions Court administration Gender issues Health care Human resource management Law Local government Methods Organization Performance Policy areas Policy-making process Procurement State government Theories This revamped five-volume edition is a reconceptualization of the first edition by Jack Rabin. It incorporates over 225 new entries and over 100 revisions, including a range of contributions and updates from the renowned academic and practitioner leaders of today as well as the next generation of top scholars. The entries address topics in clear and coherent language and include references to additional sources for further study.

Humanitarianism, War, and Politics

Humanitarianism, War, and Politics
Author: Peter J. Hoffman
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Total Pages: 345
Release: 2017-06-27
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1442266147

What is humanitarianism? This authoritative book provides a comprehensive analysis of the original idea and its evolution, exploring its triangulation with war and politics. Peter J. Hoffman and Thomas G. Weiss trace the origins of humanitarianism, its social movement, and the institutions (international humanitarian law) and organizations (providers of assistance and protection) that comprise it. They consider the international humanitarian system’s ability to regulate the conduct of war, to improve the wellbeing of its victims, and to prosecute war criminals. Probing the profound changes in the culture and capacities that underpin the sector and alter the meaning of humanitarianism, they assess the reinventions that constitute “revolutions in humanitarian affairs.” The book begins with traditions and perspectives—ranging from classic international relations approaches to “Critical Humanitarian Studies” —and reviews seminal wartime emergencies and the creation and development of humanitarian agencies in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The authors then examine the rise of “new humanitarianisms” after the Cold War’s end and contemporary cases after 9/11. The authors continue by unpacking the most recent “revolutions”—the International Criminal Court and the “Responsibility to Protect”—as well as such core challenges as displacement camps, infectious diseases, eco-refugees, and marketization. They conclude by evaluating the contemporary system and the prospects for further transformations, identifying scholarly puzzles and the acute operational problems faced by practitioners.