Fiscal Vulnerabilities And Risks From Local Government Finance In China
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| Author | : Ms.Yuanyan Sophia Zhang |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 29 |
| Release | : 2014-01-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484350561 |
China weathered the global financial crisis better than most, thanks to a large and timely stimulus. This stimulus, however, was mainly in the form of off-budget infrastructure spending and thus not visible in the headline fiscal data. We construct a time series for the augmented fiscal deficit and debt—augmented to include off-budget activity—that better illustrates the counter-cyclical role of fiscal policy. The results also show that the augmented fiscal deficit and debt are both considerably higher than the headline government data suggest. Nonetheless, at around 45 percent of GDP, the augmented debt is still at a manageable level.
| Author | : Franklin Allen |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 140 |
| Release | : 2015-11-18 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9781680830606 |
Provides a review of China's financial system and compares it to other financial systems. It reviews what has worked and what has not within the markets and intermediaries in China, the effects of the recent development of China's financial system on the economy, and a non-standard financial sector operating beyond the markets and banking sectors.
| Author | : Wojciech Maliszewski |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 43 |
| Release | : 2016-10-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475545282 |
Corporate credit growth in China has been excessive in recent years. This credit boom is related to the large increase in investment after the Global Financial Crisis. Investment efficiency has fallen and the financial performance of corporates has deteriorated steadily, affecting asset quality in financial institutions. The corporate debt problem should be addressed urgently with a comprehensive strategy. Key elements should include identifying companies in financial difficulties, proactively recognizing losses in the financial system, burden sharing, corporate restructuring and governance reform, hardening budget constraints, and facilitating market entry. A proactive strategy would trade off short-term economic pain for larger longer-term gain.
| Author | : Mr.Bernardin Akitoby |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 66 |
| Release | : 2020-05-11 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513532839 |
This departmental paper investigates how countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) can improve fiscal transparency, thereby raising government efficiency and reducing corruption vulnerabilities.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 93 |
| Release | : 2013-07-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475566921 |
This staff report on People’s Republic of China 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights macroeconomic developments and outlook. China has maintained robust growth since the global crisis, but the heavy reliance on credit and investment to sustain activity is raising vulnerabilities. The consequence is a steady build-up of leverage that is eroding the strength of the financial sector, local government, and corporate balance sheets. This is most apparent in the continued rapid expansion in total social financing. The development of nontraditional finance marks a shift to more market-based intermediation, and the migration of activity to less-regulated parts of the system poses risks to financial stability.
| Author | : M. Ayhan Kose |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 403 |
| Release | : 2021-03-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464815453 |
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
| Author | : John Brondolo |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 67 |
| Release | : 2016-03-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475523610 |
Tax administration improvements have contributed significantly to a doubling of China’s tax-to-GDP ratio and the substantial reduction in taxpayers’ compliance costs since the mid-1990s. This paper describes the key features of China’s tax administration and their evolution over the last 20 years. It also identifes emerging challenges to the tax system and areas where further tax administration improvements are needed to sustain tax revenue and reduce taxpayers’ compliance costs in the future.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 160 |
| Release | : 2013-04-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475589581 |
The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
| Author | : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 28 |
| Release | : 2017-06-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484302567 |
Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.
| Author | : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 39 |
| Release | : 2019-09-27 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 151351377X |
We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.
