Optimal Government Debt Maturity

Optimal Government Debt Maturity
Author: Davide Debortoli
Publisher:
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2014
Genre: Debts, Public
ISBN:

This paper develops a model of optimal government debt maturity in which the government cannot issue state-contingent bonds and cannot commit to fiscal policy. If the government can perfectly commit, it fully insulates the economy against government spending shocks by purchasing short-term assets and issuing long-term debt. These positions are quantitatively very large relative to GDP and do not need to be actively managed by the government. Our main result is that these conclusions are not robust to the introduction of lack of commitment. Under lack of commitment, large and tilted positions are very expensive to finance ex-ante since they exacerbate the problem of lack of commitment ex-post. In contrast, a flat maturity structure minimizes the cost of lack of commitment, though it also limits insurance and increases the volatility of fiscal policy distortions. We show that the optimal maturity structure is nearly flat because reducing average borrowing costs is quantitatively more important for welfare than reducing fiscal policy volatility. Thus, under lack of commitment, the government actively manages its debt positions and can approximate optimal policy by confining its debt instruments to consols.

Robust-Optimal Fiscal Policy

Robust-Optimal Fiscal Policy
Author: Vasco M. Carvalho
Publisher:
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper introduces a concern for model misspecification in a Lucas-Stokey optimal fiscal policy setting. The representative household in this economy is endowed with the knowledge of a reference model for the government spending process but acknowledges that this model is potentially misspecified. The paper shows how this concern for misspecification affects the competitive equilibrium pricing of state contingent bonds and how this in turn affects the calculation of present value budget constraints. The paper shows how the Ramsey problem and optimal solutions are affected by the size of potential misspecifications entertained. The implications for optimal maturity structure for non-contingent debt are analysed, paying particular attention to how the pricing of these assets is affected by robustness considerations. A linear quadratic specification serves to implement numerically the economy under study.

Optimal Management of Indexed and Nominal Debt

Optimal Management of Indexed and Nominal Debt
Author: Robert J. Barro
Publisher:
Total Pages: 34
Release: 1997
Genre: Debts, Public
ISBN:

A tax-smoothing objective is used to assess the optimal consumption of public debt with respect to maturity and contingencies. This objective motivates the government to make its debt payout contingent on the levels of public outlay and the tax base. If these contingencies are present, but asset prices of non-contingent indexed debt are stochastic, then full tax smoothing dictates an optimal maturity structure of the non-contingent debt. If the certainty-equivalent outlays are the same for each period then the government should guarantee equal real payouts in each period, that is, the debt takes the form of indexed consols. This structure insulates the government's budget constraint from unpredictable variations in the market prices of indexed bonds of various maturities. If contingent debt is precluded, then the government may want to depart from a consol maturity structure to exploit covariances among public outlay, the tax base, and the term structure of real interest rates. However, if moral hazard is the reason for the preclusion of contingent debt, then this consideration also deters exploitation of these covariances and tends to return the optimal solution to the consol maturity structure. The issue of nominal bonds may allow the government to exploit the covariances among public outlay, the tax base, and the rate of inflation. But if moral-hazard explains the absence of contingent debt, then the same reasoning tends to make nominal debt issue undesirable. The bottom line is that an optimal-tax approach to public debt favors bonds that are indexed and long term.

The Impact of Debt Levels and Debt Maturity on Inflation

The Impact of Debt Levels and Debt Maturity on Inflation
Author: Elisa Faraglia
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2012
Genre: Debts, Public
ISBN:

In the context of a sticky price DSGE model subject to government expenditure and preference shocks where governments issue only nominal non-contingent bonds we examine the implications for optimal inflation of changes in the level and average maturity of government debt. We analyse these relationships under two different institutional settings. In one case government pursues optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a coordinated way whereas in the alternative we assume an independent monetary authority that sets interest rates according to a Taylor rule and where the fiscal authority treats bond prices as a given. We identify the main mechanisms through which inflation is affected by debt and debt maturity (a real balance effect and an implicit profit tax) and also study additional channels through which the government achieves fiscal sustainability (tax smoothing, interest rate twisting and endogenous fluctuations in bond prices). In the case of optimal coordinated monetary and fiscal policy we find that the persistence and volatility of inflation depends on the sign, size and maturity structure of government debt. High levels of government debt do lead to higher inflation and longer maturity debt leads to more persistent inflation. However even in the presence of modest price stickiness the role of inflation is minor with the majority of fiscal adjustment achieved through changes in taxes and the primary surplus. However in the case of an independent monetary authority where debt management, monetary policy and fiscal policy are not coordinated then inflation has a much more substantial and more persistent role to play. Inflation is higher, more volatile and more persistent especially in response to preference shocks and plays a major role in achieving fiscal solvency.

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management
Author: Mr.Cristiano Cantore
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2017-03-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475590180

The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government’s commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary-fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks”, perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds–under commitment–the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long and short-term bonds.

Optimal Taxation and Debt Management Without Commitment

Optimal Taxation and Debt Management Without Commitment
Author: Davide Debortoli
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2018
Genre: Debts, Public
ISBN:

This paper considers optimal fiscal policy in a deterministic Lucas and Stokey (1983) economy in the absence of government commitment. In every period, the government chooses a labor income tax and issues any unconstrained maturity structure of debt as a function of its outstanding debt portfolio. We find that the solution under commitment cannot always be sustained through the appropriate choice of debt maturities, a result which contrasts with previous conclusions in the literature. This is because a government today cannot commit future governments to a particular side of the Laffer curve, even if it can commit them to future revenues. We find that the unique stable debt maturity structure under no commitment is flat, with the government owing the same amount of resources to the private sector at all future dates. We present examples in which the maturity structure converges to such a flat distribution over time. In cases where the commitment and no-commitment solutions do not coincide, debt converges to the natural debt limit.

Optimal Fiscal Policy Without Commitment

Optimal Fiscal Policy Without Commitment
Author: Davide Debortoli
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

According to the Lucas-Stokey result, a government can structure its debt maturity to guarantee commitment to optimal fiscal policy by future governments. In this paper, we overturn this conclusion, showing that it does not generally hold in the same model and under the same definition of time-consistency as in Lucas-Stokey. Our argument rests on the existence of an overlooked commitment problem that cannot be remedied with debt maturity: a government in the future will not tax on the downward slopping side of the Laffer curve, even if it is ex-ante optimal to do so. In light of this finding, we propose a new framework to characterize time-consistent policy. We consider a Markov Perfect Competitive Equilibrium, where a government reoptimizes sequentially and may deviate from the optimal commitment policy. We find that, in a deterministic economy, any stationary distribution of debt maturity must be flat, with the government owing the same amount at all future dates.