Fiscal Policy Intercountry Adjustment And The Real Exchange Rate Within Europe
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Author | : Christopher Allsopp |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 2008 |
Genre | : Economic and Monetary Union |
ISBN | : |
The paper argues that an improved fiscal policy process might result in improved macroeconomic performance within Europe. Within EMU, a country may have difficulty ensuring stability in the face of asymmetric shocks; the response may be unstable, or, even if not, the real exchange rate might overshoot. In this context, the rules of the SGP may interfere with the control of inflation control, with the short-run stabilisation of demand, and also with the longer term adjustment of intra-European real exchange rates. We recommend using fiscal policy to stabilise inflation and also to target the real exchange rate rather than deficits or debt. Such a policy would require a more active use of fiscal policy.
Author | : Mr.Guillermo Calvo |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 50 |
Release | : 1994-02-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451921217 |
This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the model’s prediction that undervalued real exchange rates are associated with higher inflation.
Author | : Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 47 |
Release | : 2018-01-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484338499 |
We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 33 |
Release | : 1998-03-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451844239 |
Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.
Author | : Richard Hemming |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 62 |
Release | : 2002-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 257 |
Release | : 2015-04-20 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498344658 |
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Author | : Tamim Bayoumi |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 58 |
Release | : 1994 |
Genre | : Foreign exchange rates |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Richard C. Marston |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 332 |
Release | : 2008-04-15 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226507254 |
Economists writing on flexible exchange rates in the 1960s foresaw neither the magnitude nor the persistence of the changes in real exchange rates that have occurred in the last fifteen years. Unexpectedly large movements in relative prices have lead to sharp changes in exports and imports, disrupting normal trading relations and causing shifts in employment and output. Many of the largest changes are not equilibrium adjustments to real disturbances but represent instead sustained departures from long-run equilibrium levels, with real exchange rates remaining "misaligned" for years at a time. Contributors to Misalignment of Exchange Rates address a series of questions about misalignment. Several papers investigate the causes of misalignment and the extent to which observed movements in real exchange rates can be attributed to misalignment. These studies are conducted both empirically, through the experiences of the United States, Great Britain, Japan, and the countries of the European Monetary System, and theoretically, through models of imperfect competition. Attention is then turned to the effects of misalignment, especially on employment and production, and to detailed estimates of the effects of changes in exchange rates on several industries, including the U.S. auto industry. In response to the contention that there is significant "hysteresis" in the adjustment of employment and production to changes in exchange rates, contributors also attempt to determine whether the effects of misalignment can be reversed once exchange rates return to earlier levels. Finally, the issue of how to avoid—or at least control—misalignment through macroeconomic policy is confronted.
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 74 |
Release | : 2015-10-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498344062 |
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Author | : Mr.Santanu Chatterjee |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 2012-02-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1463945647 |
Government spending on infrastructure has recently increased sharply in many emerging-market economies. This paper examines the mechanism through which public infrastructure spending affects the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Using a two-sector dependent open economy model with intersectoral adjustment costs, we show that government spending generates a non-monotonic U-shaped adjustment path for the real exchange rate with sharp intertemporal trade-offs. The effect of government spending on the real exchange rate depends critically on (i) the composition of public spending, (ii) the underlying financing policy, (iii) the intensity of private capital in production, and (iv) the relative productivity of public infrastructure. In deriving these results, the model also identifies conditions under which the predictions of the neoclassical open economy model can be reconciled with empirical regularities, namely the intertemporal relationship between government spending, private consumption, and the real exchange rate.