Fiscal And Social Impact Of A Nominal Exchange Rate Devaluation In Djibouti
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| Author | : Paloma Anós Casero |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 42 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : Accounting |
| ISBN | : |
Limited fiscal space limits Djibouti's ability to meet the Millennium Development Goals and improve the living conditions of its population. Djibouti's fiscal structure is unique in that almost 70 percent of government revenue is denominated in foreign currency (import taxes, foreign aid grants, and military revenue) while over 50 percent of government expenditure is denominated in local currency (wages, salaries, and social transfers). Djibouti's economic structure is also unusual in that merchandise exports of local origin are insignificant, and the country relies heavily on imported goods (food, medicines, consumer and capital goods). A currency devaluation, by reducing real wages, could potentially generate additional fiscal space that would help meet Djibouti's fundamental development goals. Using macroeconomic and household level data, the authors quantify the impact of a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate on fiscal savings, real public sector wages, real income, and poverty under various hypothetical scenarios of exchange-rate pass-through and magnitude of devaluation. They find that a currency devaluation could generate fiscal savings in the short-term, but it would have an adverse effect on poverty and income distribution. A 30 percent nominal exchange rate devaluation could generate fiscal savings amounting between 3 and 7 percent of GDP. At the same time, a 30 percent nominal devaluation could cause nearly a fifth of the poorest households to fall below the extreme poverty line and pull the same fraction of upper middle-income households below the national poverty line. The authors also find that currency devaluation could generate net fiscal savings even after accounting for the additional social transfers needed to compensate the poor for their real income loss. However, the absence of formal social safety nets limits the government's readiness to provide well-targeted and timely social transfers to the poor.
| Author | : Paloma An??s Casero |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2012 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Limited fiscal space limits Djibouti's ability to meet the Millennium Development Goals and improve the living conditions of its population. Djibouti's fiscal structure is unique in that almost 70 percent of government revenue is denominated in foreign currency (import taxes, foreign aid grants, and military revenue) while over 50 percent of government expenditure is denominated in local currency (wages, salaries, and social transfers). Djibouti's economic structure is also unusual in that merchandise exports of local origin are insignificant, and the country relies heavily on imported goods (food, medicines, consumer and capital goods). A currency devaluation, by reducing real wages, could potentially generate additional fiscal space that would help meet Djibouti's fundamental development goals. Using macroeconomic and household level data, the authors quantify the impact of a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate on fiscal savings, real public sector wages, real income, and poverty under various hypothetical scenarios of exchange-rate pass-through and magnitude of devaluation. They find that a currency devaluation could generate fiscal savings in the short-term, but it would have an adverse effect on poverty and income distribution. A 30 percent nominal exchange rate devaluation could generate fiscal savings amounting between 3 and 7 percent of GDP. At the same time, a 30 percent nominal devaluation could cause nearly a fifth of the poorest households to fall below the extreme poverty line and pull the same fraction of upper middle-income households below the national poverty line. The authors also find that currency devaluation could generate net fiscal savings even after accounting for the additional social transfers needed to compensate the poor for their real income loss. However, the absence of formal social safety nets limits the government's readiness to provide well-targeted and timely social transfers to the poor.
| Author | : Paloma Anos Casero |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 42 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Limited fiscal space limits Djibouti's ability to meet the Millennium Development Goals and improve the living conditions of its population. Djibouti's fiscal structure is unique in that almost 70 percent of government revenue is denominated in foreign currency (import taxes, foreign aid grants, and military revenue) while over 50 percent of government expenditure is denominated in local currency (wages, salaries, and social transfers). Djibouti's economic structure is also unusual in that merchandise exports of local origin are insignificant, and the country relies heavily on imported goods (food, medicines, consumer and capital goods). A currency devaluation, by reducing real wages, could potentially generate additional fiscal space that would help meet Djibouti's fundamental development goals. Using macroeconomic and household level data, the authors quantify the impact of a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate on fiscal savings, real public sector wages, real income, and poverty under various hypothetical scenarios of exchange-rate pass-through and magnitude of devaluation. They find that a currency devaluation could generate fiscal savings in the short-term, but it would have an adverse effect on poverty and income distribution. A 30 percent nominal exchange rate devaluation could generate fiscal savings amounting between 3 and 7 percent of GDP. At the same time, a 30 percent nominal devaluation could cause nearly a fifth of the poorest households to fall below the extreme poverty line and pull the same fraction of upper middle-income households below the national poverty line. The authors also find that currency devaluation could generate net fiscal savings even after accounting for the additional social transfers needed to compensate the poor for their real income loss. However, the absence of formal social safety nets limits the government's readiness to provide well-targeted and timely social transfers to the poor.
| Author | : World Bank Group |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 605 |
| Release | : 2017-01-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464809518 |
Why are carefully designed, sensible policies too often not adopted or implemented? When they are, why do they often fail to generate development outcomes such as security, growth, and equity? And why do some bad policies endure? World Development Report 2017: Governance and the Law addresses these fundamental questions, which are at the heart of development. Policy making and policy implementation do not occur in a vacuum. Rather, they take place in complex political and social settings, in which individuals and groups with unequal power interact within changing rules as they pursue conflicting interests. The process of these interactions is what this Report calls governance, and the space in which these interactions take place, the policy arena. The capacity of actors to commit and their willingness to cooperate and coordinate to achieve socially desirable goals are what matter for effectiveness. However, who bargains, who is excluded, and what barriers block entry to the policy arena determine the selection and implementation of policies and, consequently, their impact on development outcomes. Exclusion, capture, and clientelism are manifestations of power asymmetries that lead to failures to achieve security, growth, and equity. The distribution of power in society is partly determined by history. Yet, there is room for positive change. This Report reveals that governance can mitigate, even overcome, power asymmetries to bring about more effective policy interventions that achieve sustainable improvements in security, growth, and equity. This happens by shifting the incentives of those with power, reshaping their preferences in favor of good outcomes, and taking into account the interests of previously excluded participants. These changes can come about through bargains among elites and greater citizen engagement, as well as by international actors supporting rules that strengthen coalitions for reform.
| Author | : Lars Berge |
| Publisher | : libreriauniversitaria.it ed. |
| Total Pages | : 546 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : History |
| ISBN | : 8862923635 |
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 286 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0821374060 |
This pocket-sized reference on key environmental data for over 200 countries includes key indicators on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, energy, emission and pollution, and water and sanitation. The volume helps establish a sound base of information to help set priorities and measure progress toward environmental sustainability goals.
| Author | : M. Ayhan Kose |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 403 |
| Release | : 2021-03-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464815453 |
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
| Author | : Mr.Paul R. Masson |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 36 |
| Release | : 1996-01-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451929099 |
This paper examines credibility and reputational factors in explaining the December 1994 crisis of the Mexican peso. After reviewing events leading to the crisis, a model emphasizing the inflation-competitiveness trade-off is presented to explain the formation of devaluation expectations. Estimation results indicate that investors appear to have seriously underestimated the risk of devaluation, despite early warning signals. The collapse of confidence that followed the December 20 devaluation may have been the result of a shift in the perceived commitment of the authorities to exchange rate stability.
| Author | : World Bank |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 171 |
| Release | : 2015-04-10 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464804419 |
World Development Indicators 2015 World Development Indicators 2015 provides a compilation of relevant, highquality, and internationally comparable statistics about global development and the fight against poverty. It is intended to help policymakers, students, analysts, professors, program managers, and citizens find and use data related to all aspects of development, including those that help monitor progress toward the World Bank Group’s two goals of ending poverty and promoting shared prosperity. Six themes are used to organize indicators—world view, people, environment, economy, states and markets, and global links. As in past editions, World Development Indicators reviews global progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and provides key indicators related to poverty. WDI 2015 includes: * A selection of the most popular indicators across 214 economies and 14 country groups organized into six WDI themes * Thematic and regional highlights, providing an overview of global development trends * An in-depth review of the progress made toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals * A user guide describing resources available online and on mobile apps A complementary online data analysis tool is available this year to allow readers to further investigate global, regional, and country progress on the MDGs: data.worldbank.org/mdgs. Each of the remaining sections includes an introduction; six stories highlighting specific global, regional or country trends; and a table of the most relevant and popular indicators for that theme, together with a discussion of indicator compilation methodology. WDI DataFinder Mobile App Download the WDI DataFinder Mobile App and other Data Apps at data.worldbank.org/apps. WDI DataFinder is a mobile app for browsing the current WDI database on smartphones and tablets, using iOS, Android, and Blackberry, available in four languages: English, French, Spanish, and Chinese. Use the app to: * browse data using the structure of the WDI * visually compare countries and indicators * create, edit, and save customized tables, charts, and maps * share what you create on Twitter, Facebook, and via email
| Author | : Mr.Carlo A Sdralevich |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 130 |
| Release | : 2014-07-09 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498350437 |
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
