Followers Or Ignorants? Inflation Expectations and Price Setting Behavior of Firms

Followers Or Ignorants? Inflation Expectations and Price Setting Behavior of Firms
Author: Philipp Dörrenberg
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre:
ISBN:

Using a randomized survey experiment, we investigate how firms' inflation expectations shape their price setting. We establish that firms fully pass through inflation expectations to prices in times of high inflation, consistent with Calvo pricing. When informed about central bank inflation forecasts, firms indicate significantly lower planned price increases than their untreated peers. Additionally, treated firms pass through less of their pre-treatment inflation expectations than control-group firms, even more so when additionally receiving central bank forecasts on energy and labor cost developments. Hence, communication of inflation forecasts can shift expectations and prices, and therefore serve as an effective policy tool.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain

Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain
Author: Elías Albagli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2022-08-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

We show that firms rely on price changes observed along their supply chain to form expectations about aggregate inflation, and that these expectations have a complete pass-through to sales prices. Leveraging a unique dataset on Chilean firms merging expectation surveys and records from the VAT and customs registries, we document that changes in prices at which firms purchase inputs inform their forecasts of the economy’s inflation. This is the case even if changes in input costs do not determine the inflation outcome. These findings reject the full-information rational-expectations hypothesis and are consistent with firms’ disagreement about future inflation and inattention to macroeconomic news, which we document for Chile. Our results from a firm-level Phillips’ curve estimation suggest that firms’ beliefs about inflation are a key determinant for their price-setting decisions. Therefore, we argue that the channel we highlight in this paper has the potential to lead to dispersion in inflation expectations, price dispersion, and weaken the expectation channel of policies.

Survey of Price-setting Behaviour of Canadian Companies

Survey of Price-setting Behaviour of Canadian Companies
Author: David Amirault
Publisher:
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2006
Genre: Prices
ISBN:

"In many mainstream macroeconomic models, sticky prices play an important role in explaining the effects of monetary policy on the economy. Various theories have been set forth to explain why prices are sticky. This study takes a firm-level survey approach, in a spirit similar to Blinder et al. (1998), to shed some light on the question of why prices are sticky. In particular, the Bank of Canada's regional offices surveyed 170 Canadian firms for their views on price dynamics. The authors find that the most important motivators of price changes are price changes by competitors, changes in domestic input costs, and changes in demand. Surprisingly, but consistent with the results reported in Bils and Klenow (2002), the survey evidence suggests that more than 50 per cent of firms change their prices more than four times a year. Moreover, the survey indicates that prices change more frequently than they did ten years ago, because of more intense competition and advances in information technology"--Abstract.