Evaluating Climate Change Impacts

Evaluating Climate Change Impacts
Author: Vyacheslav Lyubchich
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 395
Release: 2020-10-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1351190822

Evaluating Climate Change Impacts discusses assessing and quantifying climate change and its impacts from a multi-faceted perspective of ecosystem, social, and infrastructure resilience, given through a lens of statistics and data science. It provides a multi-disciplinary view on the implications of climate variability and shows how the new data science paradigm can help us to mitigate climate-induced risk and to enhance climate adaptation strategies. This book consists of chapters solicited from leading topical experts and presents their perspectives on climate change effects in two general areas: natural ecosystems and socio-economic impacts. The chapters unveil topics of atmospheric circulation, climate modeling, and long-term prediction; approach the problems of increasing frequency of extreme events, sea level rise, and forest fires, as well as economic losses, analysis of climate impacts for insurance, agriculture, fisheries, and electric and transport infrastructures. The reader will be exposed to the current research using a variety of methods from physical modeling, statistics, and machine learning, including the global circulation models (GCM) and ocean models, statistical generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM), state space and graphical models, causality networks, Bayesian ensembles, a variety of index methods and statistical tests, and machine learning methods. The reader will learn about data from various sources, including GCM and ocean model outputs, satellite observations, and data collected by different agencies and research units. Many of the chapters provide references to open source software R and Python code that are available for implementing the methods.

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts
Author: Stéphane Vannitsem
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 364
Release: 2018-05-17
Genre: Science
ISBN: 012812248X

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. - Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place - Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts - Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Standard Fire Behavior Fuel Models

Standard Fire Behavior Fuel Models
Author: Joe H. Scott
Publisher:
Total Pages: 84
Release: 2005
Genre: Fire management
ISBN:

This report describes a new set of standard fire behavior fuel models for use with Rothermels surface fire spread model and the relationship of the new set to the original set of 13 fire behavior fuel models. To assist with transition to using the new fuel models, a fuel model selection guide, fuel model crosswalk, and set of fuel model photos are provided.

A Review of the Forest Service Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) Network

A Review of the Forest Service Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) Network
Author: John Zachariassen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 164
Release: 2003
Genre: Fire weather
ISBN:

"The RAWS network and RAWS data-use systems are closely reviewed and summarized in this report. RAWS is an active program created by the many land-management agencies that share a common need for accurate and timely weather data from remote locations for vital operational and program decisions specific to wildland and prescribed fires. A RAWS measures basic observable weather parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation as well as "fuel stick" temperature. Data from almost 1,900 stations deployed across the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Hawaii are now routinely used to calculate and forecast daily fire danger indices, components, and adjective ratings. Fire business applications include the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), fire behavior, and fire use. Findings point to the fact that although the RAWS program works and provides needed weather data in support of fire operations, there are inefficiencies and significant problem areas that require leadership attention at the National level."

Anthropogenic Climate Change

Anthropogenic Climate Change
Author: Hans von Storch
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 357
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3642599923

GKSS SCHOOL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH The National Research Laboratory GKSS (member of the Hermann von Helmholtz-Association of German Reserach Centres) located in Geesthacht, near Hamburg, is engaged in environmental research. The main interest of the research center focuses on regional climatology and climate dynamics, interdecadal variations in the state of the Baltic and North Sea and related estuaries, and the flow ofheavy metals, nutrients, and other materials in river catchments to the coastal zones. This research aims at-developing an under standing ofchanges in the environment, both as a result ofinternal (natural) dynamics and as a result of anthropogenic interference. In an effort to dis seminate the results of these research activities, as well as to initiate a broad discussion among senior scientists in the field, and younger colleagues from all areas of the globe, the Institutes of Hydrophysics and Atmospheric Physics at GKSS have instituted the GKSS School of Environmental Research. Appliedenvironmental research has always containedanelement ofaware ness ofthe societal implications and boundary conditions associated with en vironmental concerns. Consequently, the School of Environmental Research adheres to the philosophy that all discussion regarding environmental change should incorporate a social component. This necessity has been well acknowl edged and is apparent by the incorporation ofsocial scientists into the series of lectures. Senior scientists from Europe and North America were invited to give lectures to "students" from all parts of the globe.

Wildland Fire Danger Estimation and Mapping

Wildland Fire Danger Estimation and Mapping
Author: Emilio Chuvieco
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 284
Release: 2003
Genre: Nature
ISBN: 9789812791177

The book presents a wide range of techniques for extracting information from satellite remote sensing images in forest fire danger assessment. It covers the main concepts involved in fire danger rating, and analyses the inputs derived from remotely sensed data for mapping fire danger at both the local and global scale. The questions addressed concern the estimation of fuel moisture content, the description of fuel structural properties, the estimation of meteorological danger indices, the analysis of human factors associated with fire ignition, and the integration of different risk factors in a geographic information system for fire danger management.

Grassfires

Grassfires
Author: Phil Cheney
Publisher: CSIRO PUBLISHING
Total Pages: 161
Release: 2008
Genre: Nature
ISBN: 0643093834

Grassfirespresents the latest information from CSIRO on the behavior and spread of fires in grasslands. This second edition follows ten years of research aimed at improving the understanding of fundamental processes involved in the behavior of bushfires and grassfires. The book has been extensively revised and new case studies have been added to reflect the latest findings in research and investigations. The book covers all aspects of fire behavior and spread in the major types of grasses in Australia. It examines the factors that affect fire behavior in continuous grassy fuels; fire in spinifex fuels; the effect of weather and topography on fire spread; wildfire suppression strategies; and how to reconstruct grassfire spread after the fact. The three fire-spread meters designed by CSIRO and used for the prediction of fire danger and rate of spread of grassfires are explained and their use and limitations discussed. This new edition expands on the historical view of grassfires with respect to extensive Aboriginal burning, combustion chemistry, flame structure and temperature, spotting and spread in discontinuous/eaten out fuels, and the effect of wind in complex terrain. The case studies in the chapter "Wildfires and Their Suppression" have been updated and include the major wild grassfire events of recent years, the January 2003 ACT fires and the 2005 Wangary, SA fire. The "Myths, Facts and Fallacies" chapter includes new myths and a new section on personal safety during a wild grass fire. Of interest to all rural fire fighters and rural landholders, students and teachers of courses on landscape and ecological processes, rural and peri-urban dwellers, fire authorities and researchers.

Weather Guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System

Weather Guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System
Author: B. D. Lawson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 90
Release: 2008
Genre: Fire risk assessment
ISBN:

This weather guide includes detailed specifications for locating and instrumenting fire weather stations, taking weather observations, and overwintering the Drought Code component of the FWI System. The sensitivity of the FWI System components to weather elements is represented quantitatively. The importance of weather that is not directly observable is discussed in the context of fuel moisture and fire behavior. Current developments in the observation and measurement of fire weather and the forecasting of fire danger are discussed, along with the implications for the reporting of fire weather of increasingly automated fire management information systems.