55 Trends

55 Trends
Author: Proteus
Publisher: CreateSpace
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2014-07-29
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9781500673925

This book can be viewed as a response to a call sounded by Dr. Thomas Mahnken at the Forces Transformation Chairs Meeting in February 2007. Dr. Mahnken, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy Planning, pointed out that the United States responds to shocks most successfully when it has already recognized and responded to the trends from which they emerge. It is less successful when those trends have gone unidentified or when no effective response to them has been mounted. One case where the trends were not recognized in time was the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. It thus becomes necessary, Dr. Mahnken concluded, to develop a means of identifying trends and responding to them before acute challenges emerge. Forecasting International (FI) heartily agreed. FI is one of the world's premier futurist organizations. It specializes in the analysis of trends. To our knowledge, we were the first such organization to apply trend analysis to the problem of terrorism. We did so with considerable success. FI began its work on terrorism in 1994, when it managed the 4th Annual Defense Worldwide Combating Terrorism Conference for the Pentagon. Its conference report, Terror 2000: The Future Face of Terror, accurately predicted the rise of Muslim extremism as a source of terror, the terrorists' growing taste for mass bloodletting, the use of coordinated attacks on distant targets, and even an assault on the Pentagon using a hijacked airplane (omitted at the request of the State Department). Since then, FI has often studied terrorist issues for both government and private industry. In the current report, FI examines the future of international terrorism. In this effort, it has been assisted by more than fifty of the world's premier authorities in the fields of antiterrorism, intelligence, security, and policing. This expert panel included members of the intelligence community, specialists from the U.S. government and military, security consultants, think tank staffers, forecasters, university professors, and local police officials. Most came from the United States, but Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, Russia, and Switzerland also were represented. Several participants chose to remain anonymous, owing to their sensitive positions in government and the military. One contributor is a private citizen of whom we know nothing, save that he responded to a magazine article we had published and provided some interesting thoughts. This typifies our approach in this work. We have tried to be inclusive, rather than exclusive. FI's own views, and those of certain experts, dominate the report, but some have been included-often in the appendices-specifically because they diverge from the mainstream and might provide useful insights or novel ideas that would not arise from more conventional sources. We have tried to omit nothing that should at least be considered. Many of the ideas presented here deserve to be seen at the highest levels of government. Key findings from our panel of experts include: International terrorism will grow as veterans of the Iraq War return to their native lands, train sympathizers in the tactics of terror, and spread out across the world. Among the Western lands, Britain and France (owing to their large Muslim populations) and the United States will be at the greatest risk of attack, in that order. Further attacks on the scale of 9/11 are to be expected in all three countries over the range of five to ten years.

Global Trends 2040

Global Trends 2040
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2021-03
Genre:
ISBN: 9781646794973

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Global Trends

Global Trends
Author: National Intelligence Council and Office
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Total Pages: 80
Release: 2017-02-17
Genre:
ISBN: 9781543054705

This edition of Global Trends revolves around a core argument about how the changing nature of power is increasing stress both within countries and between countries, and bearing on vexing transnational issues. The main section lays out the key trends, explores their implications, and offers up three scenarios to help readers imagine how different choices and developments could play out in very different ways over the next several decades. Two annexes lay out more detail. The first lays out five-year forecasts for each region of the world. The second provides more context on the key global trends in train.

Global Radical Islamist Insurgency: AL QAEDA AND ISLAMIC STATE NETWORKS FOCUS

Global Radical Islamist Insurgency: AL QAEDA AND ISLAMIC STATE NETWORKS FOCUS
Author: Dave Dilegge and Robert J. Bunker
Publisher: iUniverse
Total Pages: 852
Release: 2016-02-11
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1491788054

This anthology—the second of an initial two volume set—specifically covers Small Wars Journal writings on Al Qaeda and the Islamic State spanning the years 2012-2014. This set is meant to contribute to U.S. security debates focusing on radical Islamist global insurgency by collecting diverse SWJ essays into more easily accessible formats. Small Wars Journal has long been a leader in insurgency and counterinsurgency research and scholarship with an emphasis on practical applications and policy outcomes in furtherance of U.S. global and allied nation strategic interests. The site is able to lay claim to supporting the writings of many COIN (counterinsurgency) practitioners. This includes Dr. David Kilcullen whose early work dating from late 2004 “Countering Global Insurgency” helped to lay much of the conceptual basis focusing on this threat and as a result greatly helped to facilitate the writings that were later incorporated into these Al Qaeda and Islamic State focused anthologies. This volume is composed of sixty-six chapters divided into sections on a) radical Islamist OPFORs (opposition forces) and context and b) U.S.—allied policy and counter radical Islamist strategies. The work also contains a preface by Matt Begert, a foreword by Dr. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Bridget Moreng, an introduction, a postscript, an extensive notes section, and editor and contributor biographies on sixty-four individuals as well as an acronyms listing and an initial ‘About SWJ’ and foundation section.

The Impact of 9/11 on Business and Economics

The Impact of 9/11 on Business and Economics
Author: M. Morgan
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 277
Release: 2009-08-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0230100066

The Impact of 9/11 on Business and Economics is the second volume of the six-volume series The Day that Changed Everything? edited by Matthew J. Morgan. The series brings together from a broad spectrum of disciplines the leading thinkers of our time to reflect on one of the most significant events of our time.

Solving the People Puzzle

Solving the People Puzzle
Author: Emily Spencer
Publisher: Dundurn
Total Pages: 190
Release: 2010-05-24
Genre: History
ISBN: 145971167X

The twenty-first century has brought the perfect storm of conditions to create substantive global instability. This contemporary operating environment (COE) is characterized by complexity, ambiguity, volatility, and constant danger. It is a human invention that requires a human solution. Special operations forces (SOF), a group comprised of highly trained personnel with the ability to deploy rapidly and apply special skills in a variety of environments and circumstances, is the logical force of choice to achieve success in the COE. Increasing their effectiveness is cultural intelligence (CQ) – the ability to recognize the shared beliefs, values, attitudes, and behaviours of a group of people and then apply that knowledge toward a specific goal. Empowered by CQ, SOF are positioned to dominate in the COE. Solving the People Puzzle makes a convincing argument for the powerful union of the "force of choice" with the "tool of choice." This book will inspire and inform.

Iranian and Hezbollah Hybrid Warfare Activities

Iranian and Hezbollah Hybrid Warfare Activities
Author: Dave Dilegge
Publisher: iUniverse
Total Pages: 466
Release: 2016-11-07
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1532008678

This anthology covers Small Wars Journal writings on Iranian and Hezbollah hybrid warfare activities around the world. Writings date from 2007 to 2015, including coverage on the nuclear deal, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) and Qods Force global movements, and Hezbollah’s expanding influence as Iran’s proxy. This anthology is meant to support the U.S. security debate on a post-nuclear deal Iran and an increasing Hezbollah presence in Middle East affairs as well as Latin America. This volume is composed of sixty chapters divided into four sections on Iran’s military capabilities and nuclear ambitions, Hezbollah’s global operations, Iranian and Hezbollah influence in Middle Eastern security affairs and their activities in Latin America. Also included is a foreword by Jason Rivera, an afterword by Dr. Luis Fleischman, a postscript by Dr. John P. Sullivan, an acronym listing, chapter notes, suggested readings following each section, and short biographies of the fifty-three contributors showcased in this work.

Psychology of Terrorism

Psychology of Terrorism
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 222
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

In compiling this annotated bibliography on the psychology of terrorism, the author has defined terrorism as "acts of violence intentionally perpetrated on civilian noncombatants with the goal of furthering some ideological, religious or political objective." The principal focus is on nonstate actors. The task was to identify and analyze the scientific and professional social science literature pertaining to the psychological and/or behavioral dimensions of terrorist behavior (not on victimization or effects). The objectives were to explore what questions pertaining to terrorist groups and behavior had been asked by social science researchers; to identify the main findings from that research; and attempt to distill and summarize them within a framework of operationally relevant questions. To identify the relevant social science literature, the author began by searching a series of major academic databases using a systematic, iterative keyword strategy, mapping, where possible, onto existing subject headings. The focus was on locating professional social science literature published in major books or in peer-reviewed journals. Searches were conducted of the following databases October 2003: Sociofile/Sociological Abstracts, Criminal Justice Abstracts (CJ Abstracts), Criminal Justice Periodical Index (CJPI), National Criminal Justice Reference Service Abstracts (NCJRS), PsycInfo, Medline, and Public Affairs Information Service (PAIS). Three types of annotations were provided for works in this bibliography: Author's Abstract -- this is the abstract of the work as provided (and often published) by the author; Editor's Annotation -- this is an annotation written by the editor of this bibliography; and Key Quote Summary -- this is an annotation composed of "key quotes" from the original work, edited to provide a cogent overview of its main points.