Fat Tailed And Skewed Asset Return Distributions
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| Author | : Svetlozar T. Rachev |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 385 |
| Release | : 2005-09-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0471758906 |
While mainstream financial theories and applications assume that asset returns are normally distributed, overwhelming empirical evidence shows otherwise. Yet many professionals don’t appreciate the highly statistical models that take this empirical evidence into consideration. Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions examines this dilemma and offers readers a less technical look at how portfolio selection, risk management, and option pricing modeling should and can be undertaken when the assumption of a non-normal distribution for asset returns is violated. Topics covered in this comprehensive book include an extensive discussion of probability distributions, estimating probability distributions, portfolio selection, alternative risk measures, and much more. Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions provides a bridge between the highly technical theory of statistical distributional analysis, stochastic processes, and econometrics of financial returns and real-world risk management and investments.
| Author | : Andreas Fagereng |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 69 |
| Release | : 2018-07-27 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484370066 |
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
| Author | : Nassim Nicholas Taleb |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2020-06-30 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9781544508054 |
The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.
| Author | : Robert A. Meyers |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 919 |
| Release | : 2010-11-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1441977007 |
Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
| Author | : Michele Leonardo Bianchi |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 598 |
| Release | : 2019-03-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9813276215 |
The study of heavy-tailed distributions allows researchers to represent phenomena that occasionally exhibit very large deviations from the mean. The dynamics underlying these phenomena is an interesting theoretical subject, but the study of their statistical properties is in itself a very useful endeavor from the point of view of managing assets and controlling risk. In this book, the authors are primarily concerned with the statistical properties of heavy-tailed distributions and with the processes that exhibit jumps. A detailed overview with a Matlab implementation of heavy-tailed models applied in asset management and risk managements is presented. The book is not intended as a theoretical treatise on probability or statistics, but as a tool to understand the main concepts regarding heavy-tailed random variables and processes as applied to real-world applications in finance. Accordingly, the authors review approaches and methodologies whose realization will be useful for developing new methods for forecasting of financial variables where extreme events are not treated as anomalies, but as intrinsic parts of the economic process.
| Author | : Jayakrishnan Nair |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 266 |
| Release | : 2022-06-09 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1009062964 |
Heavy tails –extreme events or values more common than expected –emerge everywhere: the economy, natural events, and social and information networks are just a few examples. Yet after decades of progress, they are still treated as mysterious, surprising, and even controversial, primarily because the necessary mathematical models and statistical methods are not widely known. This book, for the first time, provides a rigorous introduction to heavy-tailed distributions accessible to anyone who knows elementary probability. It tackles and tames the zoo of terminology for models and properties, demystifying topics such as the generalized central limit theorem and regular variation. It tracks the natural emergence of heavy-tailed distributions from a wide variety of general processes, building intuition. And it reveals the controversy surrounding heavy tails to be the result of flawed statistics, then equips readers to identify and estimate with confidence. Over 100 exercises complete this engaging package.
| Author | : Emmanuel Jurczenko |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 258 |
| Release | : 2006-10-02 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470057998 |
While mainstream financial theories and applications assume that asset returns are normally distributed and individual preferences are quadratic, the overwhelming empirical evidence shows otherwise. Indeed, most of the asset returns exhibit “fat-tails” distributions and investors exhibit asymmetric preferences. These empirical findings lead to the development of a new area of research dedicated to the introduction of higher order moments in portfolio theory and asset pricing models. Multi-moment asset pricing is a revolutionary new way of modeling time series in finance which allows various degrees of long-term memory to be generated. It allows risk and prices of risk to vary through time enabling the accurate valuation of long-lived assets. This book presents the state-of-the art in multi-moment asset allocation and pricing models and provides many new developments in a single volume, collecting in a unified framework theoretical results and applications previously scattered throughout the financial literature. The topics covered in this comprehensive volume include: four-moment individual risk preferences, mathematics of the multi-moment efficient frontier, coherent asymmetric risks measures, hedge funds asset allocation under higher moments, time-varying specifications of (co)moments and multi-moment asset pricing models with homogeneous and heterogeneous agents. Written by leading academics, Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models offers a unique opportunity to explore the latest findings in this new field of research.
| Author | : Svetlozar T. Rachev |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 886 |
| Release | : 2000-06-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This text is a comprehensive treatment of the Asset Pricing Theory, based on the assumption that returns are distributed non-normally. More general models are also considered and the corresponding formulae are derived, and it describes estimation techniques and presents empirical applications.
| Author | : Frank J. Fabozzi |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 673 |
| Release | : 2006-03-31 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470037695 |
An inside look at modern approaches to modeling equity portfolios Financial Modeling of the Equity Market is the most comprehensive, up-to-date guide to modeling equity portfolios. The book is intended for a wide range of quantitative analysts, practitioners, and students of finance. Without sacrificing mathematical rigor, it presents arguments in a concise and clear style with a wealth of real-world examples and practical simulations. This book presents all the major approaches to single-period return analysis, including modeling, estimation, and optimization issues. It covers both static and dynamic factor analysis, regime shifts, long-run modeling, and cointegration. Estimation issues, including dimensionality reduction, Bayesian estimates, the Black-Litterman model, and random coefficient models, are also covered in depth. Important advances in transaction cost measurement and modeling, robust optimization, and recent developments in optimization with higher moments are also discussed. Sergio M. Focardi (Paris, France) is a founding partner of the Paris-based consulting firm, The Intertek Group. He is a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Portfolio Management. He is also the author of numerous articles and books on financial modeling. Petter N. Kolm, PhD (New Haven, CT and New York, NY), is a graduate student in finance at the Yale School of Management and a financial consultant in New York City. Previously, he worked in the Quantitative Strategies Group of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, where he developed quantitative investment models and strategies.
| Author | : M. Rasmussen |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 453 |
| Release | : 2002-12-13 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0230512852 |
Targeted towards institutional asset managers in general and chief investment officers, portfolio managers and risk managers in particular, this practical book serves as a comprehensive guide to quantitative portfolio optimization, asset allocation and risk management. Providing an accessible yet rigorous approach to investment management, it gradually introduces ever more advanced quantitative tools for these areas. Using extensive examples, this book guides the reader from basic return and risk analysis, all the way through to portfolio optimization and risk characterization, and finally on to fully fledged quantitative asset allocation and risk management. It employs such tools as enhanced modern portfolio theory using Monte Carlo simulation and advanced return distribution analysis, analysis of marginal contributions to absolute and active portfolio risk, Value-at-Risk and Extreme Value Theory. All this is performed within the same conceptual, theoretical and empirical framework, providing a self-contained, comprehensive reading experience with a strongly practical aim.
