Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach

Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach
Author: Mr.Sergi Lanau
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2018-05-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484356314

We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This allows us to capture the different drivers of individual inflation components. We find that the Phillips curve is relatively flat in Colombia but steeper than recent estimates for the U.S. Supply side shocks play an important role for tradable and food prices, while indexation dynamics are important for non-tradable goods. We show that besides allowing for a more detailed understanding of inflation drivers, the bottom-up approach also improves on an aggregate Phillips curve in terms of forecasting ability. In the baseline forecast scenario, both headline and core inflation converge towards the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3 percent by end-2018 but these favorable inflation dynamics are vulnerable to large supply shocks.

Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach

Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach
Author: Mr.Sergi Lanau
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2018-05-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484354826

We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This allows us to capture the different drivers of individual inflation components. We find that the Phillips curve is relatively flat in Colombia but steeper than recent estimates for the U.S. Supply side shocks play an important role for tradable and food prices, while indexation dynamics are important for non-tradable goods. We show that besides allowing for a more detailed understanding of inflation drivers, the bottom-up approach also improves on an aggregate Phillips curve in terms of forecasting ability. In the baseline forecast scenario, both headline and core inflation converge towards the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3 percent by end-2018 but these favorable inflation dynamics are vulnerable to large supply shocks.

Colombia

Colombia
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2016-05-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484367928

This paper presents an assessment of the monetary policy stance and broad financial conditions in Colombia, which provides insights about macro-financial linkages. It also discusses how nonfinancial corporate debt and leverage have increased in recent years, supported by easy access to capital markets, abundant global liquidity, and low interest rates. While some sectors look somewhat more strained than others (oil, gas, and airlines), debt servicing capacity has also improved with recent economic growth. This paper explores three possible drivers of inflation dynamics in Colombia: exchange rate pass-through, the El Niño meteorological phenomenon, and wages. The Colombian peso depreciated in line with the decline in oil prices, pushing up tradable-goods inflation.

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
Author: Jongrim Ha
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 524
Release: 2019-02-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464813760

This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Explaining Colombia’s late Left Turn

Explaining Colombia’s late Left Turn
Author: Daniela Forero Nuñez
Publisher: diplom.de
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2023-03-29
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 3961164703

Between 2005 and 2008, the share of Latin American presidents from a right-wing party fell to 33%, compared to 64% in the early 1990s. By 2009, more than two-thirds of the countries in the region had a president from a left- or center-left party. Despite common sociopolitical and economic developments with its neighboring countries, Colombia elected a leftist president – for the first time in its modern history – only this year. The present paper examines the factors that might explain Colombia’s comparatively late political Left Turn. To this end, it explores the historic conditions that hindered the consolidation of a leftist political party or coalition with broad electoral support until the foundation of the Historic Pact for Colombia. Moreover, it draws attention to the recent social, political and economic developments that have fostered the expansion of this left-wing coalition yet considering that the efforts to cement a leftist political alternative date back to the last century.

Colombia

Colombia
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 133
Release: 1999-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451808739

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes economic developments in Colombia during 1996–99. Output growth slowed sharply in 1996 and early 1997, but subsequently rebounded owing to stronger exports, a temporary boom in world coffee prices, and an easing of credit policy. Despite efforts at addressing the fiscal imbalances, the nonfinancial public sector deficit widened further to more than 4 percent of GDP in 1997. Monetary policy during 1996 and most of 1997 was geared toward stimulating domestic demand.

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2021-11-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1616356154

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America

The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America
Author: Rudiger Dornbusch
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 416
Release: 2007-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226158489

Again and again, Latin America has seen the populist scenario played to an unfortunate end. Upon gaining power, populist governments attempt to revive the economy through massive spending. After an initial recovery, inflation reemerges and the government responds with wage an price controls. Shortages, overvaluation, burgeoning deficits, and capital flight soon precipitate economic crisis, with a subsequent collapse of the populist regime. The lessons of this experience are especially valuable for countries in Eastern Europe, as they face major political and economic decisions. Economists and political scientists from the United States and Latin America detail in this volume how and why such programs go wrong and what leads policymakers to repeatedly adopt these policies despite a history of failure. Authors examine this pattern in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Peru—and show how Colombia managed to avoid it. Despite differences in how each country implemented its policies, the macroeconomic consequences were remarkably similar. Scholars of Latin America will find this work a valuable resource, offering a distinctive macroeconomic perspective on the continuing controversy over the dynamics of populism.

The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries

The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries
Author: Mr.Paul R. Masson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 1997-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145185515X

Inflation targeting (IT) serves as monetary policy framework in several advanced economies, where it has enhanced policy transparency and accountability. The paper considers its wider applicability to developing countries. The prerequisites for a successful IT framework are identified as an ability to carry out an independent monetary policy (free of fiscal dominance or commitment to another nominal anchor, like the exchange rate) and a quantitative framework linking policy instruments to inflation. These prerequisites are largely absent among developing countries, though several of them could with some further institutional changes and an overriding commitment to low inflation make use of an IT framework.

Understanding National Accounts Second Edition

Understanding National Accounts Second Edition
Author: Lequiller François
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Total Pages: 520
Release: 2014-10-20
Genre:
ISBN: 9264214631

This is an update of OECD 2006 "Understanding National Accounts". It contains new data, new chapters and is adapted to the new systems of national accounts, SNA 2008 and ESA 2010.