Experts Adjustment To Model Based Forecasts
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Author | : Philip Hans Franses |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 145 |
Release | : 2014-10-09 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1107081599 |
Brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment of model forecasts from an econometric perspective.
Author | : Philip Hans B.F. Franses |
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Release | : 2007 |
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Author | : Philip Hans Franses |
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Total Pages | : 32 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Economic forecasting |
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Release | : 2007 |
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Author | : Philip Hans B.F. Franses |
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Total Pages | : 21 |
Release | : 2007 |
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Total Pages | : 23 |
Release | : 2007 |
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Total Pages | : 9 |
Release | : 2007 |
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Author | : J.S. Armstrong |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 880 |
Release | : 2001 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780792374015 |
This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Author | : Paul Goodwin |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 244 |
Release | : 2018-03-13 |
Genre | : Computers |
ISBN | : 1119415985 |
Go beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecasting A variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software’s predictions, and even more advanced “power user” techniques for the software itself—but your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software. Taking a non-mathematical approach to the various forecasting models, the discussion covers common everyday decisions such as model choice, forecast adjustment, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and much more. Clear explanations help you better understand seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared, and an exploration of psychological biases provides insight into the decision to override the software’s forecast. With a focus on choice, interpretation, and judgement, this book goes beyond the technical manuals to help you truly grasp the more intangible skills that lead to better accuracy. Explore the advantages and disadvantages of alternative forecasting methods in different situations Master the interpretation and evaluation of your software’s output Learn the subconscious biases that could affect your judgement toward intervention Find expert guidance on testing, planning, and configuration to help you get the most out of your software Relevant to sales forecasters, demand planners, and analysts across industries, Profit From Your Forecasting Software is the much sought-after “missing piece” in forecasting reference.
Author | : Michael Gilliland |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 419 |
Release | : 2016-01-05 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 111922456X |
A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.