Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions

Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions
Author: Sean D. Campbell
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2005
Genre: Business cycles
ISBN:

"We explore the macro/finance interface in the context of equity markets. In particular, using half a century of Livingston expected business conditions data we characterize directly the impact of expected business conditions on expected excess stock returns. Expected business conditions consistently affect expected excess returns in a statistically and economically significant counter-cyclical fashion: depressed expected business conditions are associated with high expected excess returns. Moreover, inclusion of expected business conditions in otherwisestandard predictive return regressions substantially reduces the explanatory power of the conventional financial predictors, including the dividend yield, default premium, and term premium, while simultaneously increasing R-squared. Expected business conditions retain predictive power even after controlling for an important and recently introduced non-financial predictor, the generalized consumption/wealth ratio, which accords with the view that expected business conditions play a role in asset pricing different from and complementary to that of the consumption/wealth ratio. We argue that time-varying expected business conditions likely capture time-varying risk, while time-varying consumption/wealth may capture time-varying risk aversion"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

Long-Horizon Returns

Long-Horizon Returns
Author: Eugene F. Fama
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

We use bootstrap simulations to examine the properties of long-horizon U.S. stock market returns. Distributions of continuously compounded returns converge toward normal distributions as we extend the horizon from one to 30 years, and distributions of dollar payoffs converge toward lognormal. We also show that, though largely irrelevant at short horizons, uncertainty about the expected return has a substantial impact on uncertainty about long-horizon payoffs.

A State-Space Model of Short- and Long-Horizon Stock Returns

A State-Space Model of Short- and Long-Horizon Stock Returns
Author: Chunsheng Zhou
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2001
Genre:
ISBN:

If stock prices do not follow random walks, what processes do they follow? In this paper I propoise a new parsimonious state-space model in which state variables characterize the stochastic movements of stock returns. Using the equally weighted and decile monthly stock returns, the paper shows that (1) the variation in expected returns at any horizons is well characterized by a parsimonious state-space model; (2) the extracted expected returns explain a substantial proportion of the variance in realized returns, and the magnitude of this proportion increases significantly with the horizon of returns; (3) the model successfully caputures the empirical fact that returns of smaller firms have both stronger positive autocorrelations of short horizon returns and stronger negative autocorrelations of long horizon returns; and (4) the forecasts of asset returns obtained with the state-space model subsume the information in other potential predictor variables such as dividend yields.

Selfsimilarity in Long Horizon Asset Returns

Selfsimilarity in Long Horizon Asset Returns
Author: Dilip B. Madan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

Daily return distributions are modeled by pure jump limit laws that are selfdecomposable laws. The returns may be seen as composed of a sum of independent and identically distributed increments or as a selfsimilar law scaling the sum of exponentially weighted past shocks or a combination thereof. To the extent the selfsimilar component is present and the scaling coefficient is above a half it is shown that long horizon returns may not converge to a normal distribution. Estimations conducted on 214 equity underliers over the period January 2007 to February 2017 support this lack of convergence to normality at very long horizons. An analysis of distributions embedded in option data shows that the convergence to normality is also halted risk neutrally. Selfsimilar components are estimated to have a physical half life between one or two days and a risk neutral half life around a year. In the long run markets are in an equilibrium state of motion engineered to avoid the evolution of good deals. The associated equilibrium solutions are illustrated. The implications of a selfsimilar scaling component for the equity bias, volatility and desirability of returns across horizons, horizon effects on expected returns, and Sharpe ratios are developed. Additionally long horizon return modeling is employed to construct alternative long horizon risk free rates using volatility targets.

Heterogeneous Expectations and Long Range Correlation of the Volatility of Asset Returns

Heterogeneous Expectations and Long Range Correlation of the Volatility of Asset Returns
Author: Jérôme Coulon
Publisher:
Total Pages: 64
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we aim at relating the long range correlation of the stocks return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations about the level of the future volatility. Based on a semi-parametric model of investors' anticipations, we make the connection between the distributional properties of the heterogeneity parameters and the auto-covariance/auto-correlation functions of the realized volatility. We report different behaviors, or change of convention, whose observation depends on the market phase under consideration. In particular, we report and justify the fact that the volatility exhibits significantly longer memory during the phases of speculative bubble than during the phase of recovery following the collapse of a speculative bubble.

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Financial Markets and the Real Economy
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 117
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1933019158

Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.