An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique

An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2021-05-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513573691

Determining the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to inflation has been of paramount importance for policy-makers in developed and emerging economies. This paper estimates the exchange rate passthrough in Mozambique using econometric techniques on a sample spanning from 2001 to 2019. Results suggest that the ERPT is assymetric, sizable and fast, with 50 percent of the exchange rate variations passing through to prices in less than six months. Policy-makers should continue to pursue low and stable inflation and develop a strong track record of prudent macroeconomic policies for the ERPT to decline.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Sub-Saharan African Economies and its Determinants

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Sub-Saharan African Economies and its Determinants
Author: Mr.Ivohasina Fizara Razafimahefa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2012-06-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475503989

This paper analyzes the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices and its determinants in sub-Saharan African countries. It finds that the pass-through is incomplete. The pass-through is larger following a depreciation than after an appreciation of the local currency. The average elasticity is estimated at about 0.4. It is lower in countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes and in countries with a higher income. A low inflation environment, a prudent monetary policy, and a sustainable fiscal policy are associated with a lower pass-through. The degree of pass-through has declined in the SSA region since the mid-1990s following marked improvements in macroeconomic and political environments.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Sub-Saharan African Economies and its Determinants

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Sub-Saharan African Economies and its Determinants
Author: Mr.Ivohasina Fizara Razafimahefa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2012-06-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475530021

This paper analyzes the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices and its determinants in sub-Saharan African countries. It finds that the pass-through is incomplete. The pass-through is larger following a depreciation than after an appreciation of the local currency. The average elasticity is estimated at about 0.4. It is lower in countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes and in countries with a higher income. A low inflation environment, a prudent monetary policy, and a sustainable fiscal policy are associated with a lower pass-through. The degree of pass-through has declined in the SSA region since the mid-1990s following marked improvements in macroeconomic and political environments.

The Informal Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Informal Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa
Author: Leandro Medina
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2017-07-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484309030

The multiple indicator-multiple cause (MIMIC) method is a well-established tool for measuring informal economic activity. However, it has been criticized because GDP is used both as a cause and indicator variable. To address this issue, this paper applies for the first time the light intensity approach (instead of GDP). It also uses the Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) method to estimate the size of the informal economy for Sub-Saharan African countries over 24 years. Results suggest that informal economy in Sub-Saharan Africa remains among the largest in the world, although this share has been very gradually declining. It also finds significant heterogeneity, with informality ranging from a low of 20 to 25 percent in Mauritius, South Africa and Namibia to a high of 50 to 65 percent in Benin, Tanzania and Nigeria.

Regional Economic Outlook, May 2005, Sub-Saharan Africa

Regional Economic Outlook, May 2005, Sub-Saharan Africa
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 102
Release: 2005-05-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This first, annual issue of Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa analyzes economic, trade, and institutional issues in 2004, and prospects in 2005, for the 42 countries covered by the IMF African Department (for data reasons, Eritrea and Liberia are excluded). Topics examined include responses to exogenous shocks, growth performance and growth-enhancing policies, and the effectiveness of regional trade arrangements. Detailed aggregate and country data (as of February 24, 2005) are provided in the appendix.

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Author: Mr.Dhaneshwar Ghura
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 1995-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451855753

The paper investigates empirically the determinants of economic growth for a large sample of sub-Saharan African countries during 1981-92. The results indicate that (i) an increase in private investment has a relatively large positive impact on per capita growth; (ii) growth is stimulated by public policies that lower the budget deficit in relation to GDP (without reducing government investment), reduce the rate of inflation, maintain external competitiveness, promote structural reforms, encourage human capital development, and slow population growth; and (iii) convergence of per capita income occurs after controlling for human capital development and public policies.

FinTech in Sub-Saharan African Countries

FinTech in Sub-Saharan African Countries
Author: Mr.Amadou N Sy
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2019-02-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484385667

FinTech is a major force shaping the structure of the financial industry in sub-Saharan Africa. New technologies are being developed and implemented in sub-Saharan Africa with the potential to change the competitive landscape in the financial industry. While it raises concerns on the emergence of vulnerabilities, FinTech challenges traditional structures and creates efficiency gains by opening up the financial services value chain. Today, FinTech is emerging as a technological enabler in the region, improving financial inclusion and serving as a catalyst for the emergence of innovations in other sectors, such as agriculture and infrastructure.

Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries

Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press
Total Pages: 110
Release: 1988
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.

An Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Angola and Nigeria

An Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Angola and Nigeria
Author: Ana Lariau
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2016-09-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475538189

This paper estimates the exchange rate pass-through to consumer price inflation in Angola and Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the changes of the pass-through over time. Even though the two countries share smilar dependence on oil exports, this paper reveals different results. For Angola, the long-run exchange rate pass-through to prices is high, though it has weakened in recent years reflecting the de-dollarization of the economy. In Nigeria, there is no stable long-run relationship between the exchange rate and prices, and changes in the exchange rate do not have a significant pass-through effect on inflation. However, the passthrough effect on core inflation is significant.

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
Author: Jongrim Ha
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 524
Release: 2019-02-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464813760

This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.