Evaluating The Trade Effect Of Developing Regional Trade Agreements A Semi Parametric Approach
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| Author | : Souleymane Coulibaly |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 23 |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : Certificates of origin |
| ISBN | : |
Abstract: Many recent papers have pointed to ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade agreements (RTAs), calling for a reassessment of their economic merits. The author focuses on seven such agreements currently in force in Sub-Saharan Africa (ECOWAS and SADC), Asia (AFTA and SAPTA) and Latin America (CACM, CAN, and MERCOSUR), estimating their impacts on their members' trade flows. Instead of the usual dummy variables for RTAs, he proposes a variable taking into account the number of years of membership. He then combines a gravity model with kernel estimation techniques to capture the non-monotonic trade effects while imposing minimal structure on the model. The results indicate that except for SAPTA, these RTAs have had a positive impact on their members' intra-trade over the estimation period (1960-99). AFTA seems to be the most successful among them, with an estimated positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but its impact on their exports to the rest of the world is rather limited. During its first 10 years of existence, ECOWAS appears to have had a positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but this positive impact vanished over time. SAPTA's negative impact on its members' intra-trade is probably an implicit effect of the India-Pakistan tensions over the estimation period.
| Author | : Souleymane Coulibaly |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2009 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Many recent papers have pointed to ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade agreements, calling for a reassessment of their economic merits. This paper focuses on 22 RTAs involving mostly developing countries and covering all the continents and use trade flows over the period 1962-2006. It proposes a two-step estimation approach to assess their trade impact: first estimate a gravity equation excluding the RTA variables, and then use the trade residuals estimated to run a kernel regression for each of the RTAs. This approach allows capturing the non-monotonic trade effects of the RTAs over time while imposing minimal structure on the model, and is flexible enough to be extended to any new RTA. As existing RTAs are deepened and new ones are being negotiated, ensuring that trade creation dominates trade diversion will be essential, particularly in the post-crisis world where resources will be limited for all countries.
| Author | : Michael G. Plummer |
| Publisher | : Asian Development Bank |
| Total Pages | : 194 |
| Release | : 2011-02-01 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 9290921978 |
This publication displays the menu for choice of available methods to evaluate the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). It caters mainly to policy makers from developing countries and aims to equip them with some economic knowledge and techniques that will enable them to conduct their own economic evaluation studies on existing or future FTAs, or to critically re-examine the results of impact assessment studies conducted by others, at the very least.
| Author | : Marc Bacchetta |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2012 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 9789287038128 |
Trade flows and trade policies need to be properly quantified to describe, compare, or follow the evolution of policies between sectors or countries or over time. This is essential to ensure that policy choices are made with an appropriate knowledge of the real conditions. This practical guide introduces the main techniques of trade and trade policy data analysis. It shows how to develop the main indexes used to analyze trade flows, tariff structures, and non-tariff measures. It presents the databases needed to construct these indexes as well as the challenges faced in collecting and processing these data, such as measurement errors or aggregation bias. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis has been developed to contribute to enhance developing countries' capacity to analyze and implement trade policy. It offers a hands-on introduction on how to estimate the distributional effects of trade policies on welfare, in particular on inequality and poverty. The guide is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research. An accompanying DVD contains data sets and program command files required for the exercises. Copublished by the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
| Author | : Bouet, Antoine |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 56 |
| Release | : 2018-12-21 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
Informal cross-border trade (ICBT) represents a prominent phenomenon in Africa. Several studies suggest that for certain products and countries, the value of informal trade may meet or even exceed the value of formal trade. This paper provides a review of existing efforts to measure informal trade. We list 18 initiatives aimed at measuring ICBT in Africa. The paper also summarizes discussions conducted with many stakeholders in Africa between December 2016 and May 2018 regarding the measurement, the determinants, and the implications of ICBT. The methodologies used to measure ICBT in Africa differ widely, but they do confirm that informal trade in Africa is both sizeable and volatile. Both evidence on the determinants of ICBT and discussions with stakeholders suggest that policies should aim to reduce the existing costs associated with formal trade and provide positive incentives for traders and producers to move into the formal economy in order to avoid the loss of economic potential stemming from informal trade.
| Author | : World Trade Organization |
| Publisher | : World Trade Organization |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 9789287041258 |
This report is about a huge contribution to our deepening understanding of what the global economy really means and how it is changing. The report helpfully distinguishes elements of an economy that are tradable and the large set that are non-tradable. Clearly the tradables set is expanding with the support of enabling technology. The report argues that connectivity in the networks that define the evolving architecture of GVCs is important. This Global Value Chain Development Report is the result of intensive and detailed work in assembling and analyzing data on the structure of economies and on how they are linked. It creates a much clearer picture of evolving patterns of independence. It also presents a much clearer picture of comparative advantage. --Publisher description.
| Author | : Oliver Morrissey |
| Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 476 |
| Release | : 2015-05-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1781005311 |
This timely Handbook comprehensively explores the complex relationships between trade and economic performance in developing countries, illustrating that it is not trade per se that is important but the context, at the firm, country and regional level, in which trade occurs.
| Author | : Albert G. Zeufack |
| Publisher | : Taylor & Francis |
| Total Pages | : 305 |
| Release | : 2024-04-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1040006027 |
In 2019, African heads of state and governments launched in fanfare the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), a historic agreement for economic transformation across the continent. But now comes the hard bit: how to make the agreement a success? In this book, senior experts from across the world come together to provide a comprehensive analysis of the conditions needed for AfCFTA to successfully spur economic development in Africa. It puts forward three foundations for success: demography dividend, digital economy, and economic diversification. In addition to trade policy, the book recommends that African policymakers should strengthen fiscal and monetary policy coordination, adopt and implement the appropriate regulatory environment, and build suitable connectivity infrastructure. The stakes are high. If implemented correctly, the book argues that AfCFTA could speed up trade within Africa, which could double every five years. Success would mean growth, investment, changing trade patterns, jobs, economic transformation, poverty reduction, and a continental market for services. Driven by concrete, evidence-based strategies for long-term growth, this book is an essential read for policy makers, development practitioners, economics researchers, and everyone with an interest in the future of Africa.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 186 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780821357477 |
This annual publication analyses the global and national dimensions of the investment climate for developing countries, in terms of the policy and institutional environment. This edition examines the growth of regional trade agreements, which have risen eight-fold in two decades with currently, as much as 40 percent of global trade taking place among countries that have some form of reciprocal regional trade agreement. Issues discussed include: regional trading trends; effects of regional agreements on trade creation, trade facilitation and services, investment, intellectual property rights, and labour mobility; whether the proliferation of agreements poses risks for multilateral trading system, and if so, options for managing them. The report finds that agreements leading to open regionalism (that is, deeper integration of trade as a result of low external tariffs, increased services competition, and efforts to reduce cross-border and customs delays costs) are effective as part of a larger trade strategy to promote growth. Although regional agreements can prove beneficial to member countries, they can have adverse effects on excluded countries, and the lowering of border barriers around the world is crucial to minimising these effects. The completion of the Doha Development Agenda by all WTO countries will reduce the risk of trade diversion associated with regional agreements and will decrease trade losses of countries excluded from agreements.
| Author | : Swarnali Ahmed Hannan |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 29 |
| Release | : 2017-03-09 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475585543 |
The paper employs synthetic control method (SCM) to determine the impact of trade agreements for 64 Latin American country pairs in the period 1989-1996. The results suggest that trade agreements have markedly boosted exports in Latin America, on an average by 76.4 percentage points over ten years. However, there is variation across countries and agreements. The export gains due to trade agreements are lower than the world average comprising 104 country pairs in the period 1983-1995.
