Ethiopias Spatial And Structural Transformation Public Policy And Drivers Of Change
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| Author | : Schmidt, Emily |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 48 |
| Release | : 2018-07-03 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
This paper evaluates Ethiopia’s urbanization trend during the last four decades, while also considering Ethiopia’s structural transformation and recent public investments to promote greater industrialization within the country. Ethiopia’s urban population grew 4.2 percent per year between 1994 and 2015, far outpacing the overall population growth rate of 2.5 percent. Compared to the urban growth rate of Africa (3.5 percent per year), Ethiopia experienced a 20 percent faster urban population growth rate (UNDESA 2015). Urbanization in Ethiopia is expected to reach 38 percent by 2050. However, this level is relatively low compared to the majority of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. Improved road infrastructure, rural to urban migration and secondary city development is increasing urbanization within the country. In addition, recent public investments to promote industrialization and increase manufacturing labor opportunities via newly constructed and planned industrial parks are projected to increase urbanization and bolster structural transformation across the country. We evaluate these investments and demographic trends within the context of other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as with the experience of India and China. Ethiopia’s investment in higher-value manufacturing and service activities via economic zones may provide similar infrastructure to that of China and India’s ‘township and village enterprises’ (TVE). However, a focus on increasing human capacity and labor mobility will be necessary to ensure that rural farmers are able to take advantage of labor opportunities outside of the agriculture sector. We calculate the projected economic impact of Ethiopia’s planned industrial zones and sugar factories and find that while public and private investment in industrial and agro-industrial parks may provide a catalyst for future growth, they are likely to provide only a small share of total output and employment. Investments in sugar factories are anticipated to total USD 5.2 billion, with estimated production of USD 3.6 billion and value-added of USD 3.3 billion. However, an increase in sugar output of this magnitude would imply massive sugar exports that may not be financially profitable.
| Author | : Schmidt, Emily |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 4 |
| Release | : 2019-02-22 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
This research note evaluates Ethiopia’s demographic shift over the last four decades while also evaluating potential urbanization trends 20 years into the future.1 Propelling Ethiopia’s urban growth is new secondary city development, ongoing population growth in small towns, and improved access to markets. In order to understand how secondary city growth is contributing to urbanization, we update the agglomeration index for the country. In addition, we look at recent patterns of domestic migration. Reviewing the government’s investment strategy in industrial parks and sugar factories, we explore current plans for industrial zones in Ethiopia. In examining the scope for their success, we consider the key role that government policy will need to play in terms of overall investment in infrastructure, as well as the major implications of macro-economic and trade policies to motivate increased private sector investment in Ethiopia’s industrial sector.
| Author | : Minten, Bart |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 34 |
| Release | : 2018-12-18 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
In the transformation of agri-food systems in developing countries, we usually see rapid changes in the livestock sector. However, good data for clearly understanding this transformation are often lacking, especially so in Africa. Relying on a combination of diverse large-scale datasets and methods, we analyze transformation patterns in the dairy value chain supplying Addis Ababa, the capital and biggest city of Ethiopia. Over the last decade, we note a rapid increase in expenditures on dairy products by urban consumers, especially among the better-off. Relatedly, the number of dairy processing firms in Ethiopia tripled over the same period, supplying a significant part of these dairy products, especially pasteurized milk, to the city’s residents. The number of dairy traders increased rapidly as well, with competition between them becoming more intense over time. Upstream at the production level, we find improved access to livestock services, higher adoption of cross-bred cows, a shift from grazing to commercial feeds, an increase in milk yields, expanding liquid milk markets, a sizable urban farm sector supplying almost one-third of all liquid milk consumed in the city, and an upscaling process with larger commercial dairy farms becoming more prevalent. However, average milk yields are still low and not all dairy farmers are included in this transformation process. Small farms with dairy animals as well as those in more remote areas benefit less from access to services and adopt less these modern practices. For these more disadvantaged farmers, stagnation in milk yields and even declines – depending on the data source used – are observed.
| Author | : Dorosh, Paul |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 35 |
| Release | : 2018-09-06 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
This paper explores these issues for Ethiopia utilizing an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM). We present the results of four alternative investment scenarios -- faster investment in i) cities; ii) crop agriculture; iii) the rural non-farm sector and agro-industry; and iv) livestock. The simulations suggest that investments in cities generate faster economic growth and structural transformation. However, given the large share of the population with incomes linked to agriculture and the rural economy, investments in the rural economy are likely to continue to be more pro-poor than urban public investments through the mid-2020s. After the mid-2020s, investments in cities become more pro-poor. In short, though rapid economic growth and structural transformation have diminished the relative importance of the agricultural sector in Ethiopia’s economy, continued public investments in agriculture and the broader agri-food system remain crucial for equity and poverty alleviation in Ethiopia, as well as for reducing food import dependency.
| Author | : Dorosh, Paul A., ed. |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 520 |
| Release | : 2020-09-14 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 0896296911 |
Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.
| Author | : Fantu Cheru |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 1017 |
| Release | : 2019-01-10 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0192546457 |
From a war-torn and famine-plagued country at the beginning of the 1990s, Ethiopia is today emerging as one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. Growth in Ethiopia has surpassed that of every other sub-Saharan country over the past decade and is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to exceed 8 percent over the next two years. The government has set its eyes on transforming the country into a middle-income country by 2025, and into a leading manufacturing hub in Africa. The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy studies this country's unique model of development, where the state plays a central role, and where a successful industrialization drive has challenged the long-held erroneous assumption that industrial policy will never work in poor African countries. While much of the volume is focused on post-1991 economic development policy and strategy, the analysis is set against the background of the long history of Ethiopia, and more specifically on the Imperial period that ended in 1974, the socialist development experiment of the Derg regime between 1974 and 1991, and the policies and strategies of the current EPRDF government that assumed power in 1991. Including a range of contributions from both academic and professional standpoints, this volume is a key reference work on the economy of Ethiopia.
| Author | : OECD |
| Publisher | : OECD Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 176 |
| Release | : 2020-04-16 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 926452648X |
This report takes a spatial approach to study Ethiopia’s rural development strategies. It highlights the need to develop stronger and more functional linkages between rural and urban areas. As such, the development of intermediary cities and small urban centres provides large scope for inclusive rural transformation. The report is the result of rigorous analysis, and extensive consultations with national and international stakeholders. It identifies some of the key challenges faced by rural areas and provides a series of recommendations to enhance Ethiopia’s rural development strategies.
| Author | : Emelie Rohne Till |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 100 |
| Release | : 2022-08-02 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3031079019 |
This book explores the role of agriculture in long-term economic growth. With a particular focus on Ethiopia, the role of the state in igniting agricultural growth and in sustaining economic growth is highlighted as essential for low-income countries. Taking ideas from both economic history and development economics, the ability of Ethiopia and the rest of Africa to sustain recent rapid growth into something that can tackle the development agenda is discussed, alongside policy suggestions. This book overall presents an optimistic account of Africa and its economic prospects. It will be relevant to students and researchers interested in economic development and agricultural economics. This is an open access book.
| Author | : Luc Christiaensen |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 220 |
| Release | : 2024-01-12 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 1464820236 |
Research on migration and urban development in Africa has primarily focused on larger cities and rural-to-urban migration. However, 97 percent of Africa’s urban centers have fewer than 300,000 inhabitants, and a sizable share of urban migrants come from other urban areas. A more holistic and dynamic perspective, incorporating migration flows along the full urban hierarchy, as well as urban-urban migrants, is needed to better understand and leverage migration for urban development. Migrants, Markets, and Mayors: Rising above the Employment Challenge in Africa’s Secondary Cities draws on demographic data, research literature, key informant interviews, and empirical research to better understand how migrants in Africa’s secondary cities fare in urban labor markets, how they affect aggregate urban productivity, and how mayors can leverage migrants’ potential to the benefit of all. It explores these questions across countries and four urban case settings: Jijiga in Ethiopia, Jinja in Uganda, and Jendouba and Kairouan in Tunisia. Although mayors in secondary cities often see migrants as a burden to their cities’ labor markets and a threat to development, the report finds that migrants contribute increasingly less to urban population growth and that they usually strengthen the resident labor force. The report also finds that labor market outcomes for migrants are at least as good as those for nonmigrants. Africa’s secondary cities are well placed to leverage migration, but evidence-based policies are needed to manage the growth and development of land and labor markets. The report reviews policy options that mayors can take to strengthen the financial, technical, and planning capacity of secondary cities and better leverage migration to benefit migrants and nonmigrants alike. ----------- "Much of the literature on migration to cities examines migration in a nonspatial fashion or focuses on rural-urban migration to the largest, most visible cities. This volume fills a gap by focusing on migration to secondary cities, coming up with a compelling set of facts. Overall, the volume is very well done and sets a benchmark for future research." †“ J. Vernon Henderson, School Professor of Economic Geography, London School of Economics
| Author | : Abate, Gashaw Tadesse |
| Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
| Total Pages | : 64 |
| Release | : 2023-01-03 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
Increased diversification of rural households into the rural non-farm economy is an important driver of economic growth and structural transformation in countries like Ethiopia where the vast majority of people live in rural areas and are largely dependent on seasonal agriculture. Some of the benefits of diversification include efficient utilization of asset endowments (e.g., labor during dry season) and reduction of risks. In this study we explore the: (i) patterns and trends of diversification, (ii) drivers of diversification including the association between rainfall risk/shocks and diversification, and (iii) welfare effects of diversification during the recent decade using three rounds of representative household data from the four main regions of Ethiopia. We used Cragg’s double-hurdle model, a method that considers the two-step decision making process in diversification (i.e., participation and extent of participation), to identify the determinants of diversification and a fixed-effect and instrumental variable (IV) approaches to understand the links between diversification and household welfare. The descriptive results show that rural households generally adopt a livelihood strategy dominated by farming and that the level of diversification has been stagnant over the period of analysis considered. More importantly, the vast majority of households continue to draw a substantial share of their income from crop production, followed by livestock. The income from non-farm activities accounts only between 17 percent and 23 percent of the total income. The econometrics results show that diversification is positively associated with credit access, membership in social insurance, ownership of mobile phone, relative measure of household wealth, and population density. Conversely, access to relatively large, fertile, and irrigable land discourages diversification into non-farm activities. The analysis on the association between rainfall risks and diversification indicates that rural households use income diversification both as risk mitigation and shock coping strategy. The results on the link between income diversification and household welfare indicate a positive association between diversification and household total consumption expenditure, dietary diversity score, and housing/roof quality. In sum, the results imply the need for a deliberate effort to expand the non-farm economy so as to tap its full potential for employment generation, income growth, and welfare improvements. A starting point could be for agricultural and rural development policies and investments to go beyond promotion of cereal crop production and facilitate participation in high value crop, livestock, aquaculture production. Incentivizing investments in value addition activities that can create and enrich upward and downward linkages in the midstream segment of agricultural value chains is another potential avenue to boost rural non-farm economy.
