Estimating Trade Elasticities

Estimating Trade Elasticities
Author: Jaime Marquez
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 147
Release: 2013-03-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475735367

One cannot exaggerate the importance of estimating how international trade responds to changes in income and prices. But there is a tension between whether one should use models that fit the data but that contradict certain aspects of the underlying theory or models that fit the theory but contradict certain aspects of the data. The essays in Estimating Trade Elasticities book offer one practical approach to deal with this tension. The analysis starts with the practical implications of optimising behaviour for estimation and it follows with a re-examination of the puzzling income elasticity for US imports that three decades of studies have not resolved. The analysis then turns to the study of the role of income and prices in determining the expansion in Asian trade, a study largely neglected in fifty years of research. With the new estimates of trade elasticities, the book examines how they assist in restoring the consistency between elasticity estimates and the world trade identity.

Estimating Trade Elasticities

Estimating Trade Elasticities
Author: Matthieu Bussière
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2011
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

This paper introduces a new methodology for the estimation of demand trade elasticities based on an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand, with the foundation of a stylized theoretical model. We compute the import intensity of demand components by using the OECD Input-Output tables. We argue that the composition of demand plays a key role in trade dynamics because of the large movements in the most import-intensive categories of expenditure (especially investment, but also exports). We provide evidence in favor of these mechanisms for a panel of 18 OECD countries, paying particular attention to the 2008-09 Great Trade Collapse.

Trade Elasticities and Market Expectations in Brazil

Trade Elasticities and Market Expectations in Brazil
Author: Mr.Claudio Paiva
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2003-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451856148

This paper provides econometric estimates of trade elasticities for Brazil obtained through cointegration and vector auto regression models and controlling for the effects of exchange rate volatility, capacity utilization, and changes in import tariffs. The results suggest that (i) recent market expectations may have been unduly pessimistic regarding the responsiveness of Brazil's trade flows to the real exchange rate, but (ii) the GDP growth rates targeted by the new government may put downward pressure on the exchange rate and thus render the achievement of official inflation targets considerably more difficult if structural reforms are not implemented.

Estimating Trade Elasticities

Estimating Trade Elasticities
Author: Matthieu Bussière
Publisher:
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2011
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

This paper introduces a new methodology for the estimation of demand trade elasticities based on an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand, with the foundation of a stylized theoretical model. We compute the import intensity of demand components by using the OECD Input-Output tables. We argue that the composition of demand plays a key role in trade dynamics because of the large movements in the most import-intensive categories of expenditure (especially investment, but also exports). We provide evidence in favor of these mechanisms for a panel of 18 OECD countries, paying particular attention to the 2008-09 Great Trade Collapse.

A Method for Calculating Export Supply and Import Demand Elasticities

A Method for Calculating Export Supply and Import Demand Elasticities
Author: Mr.Stephen Tokarick
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2010-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455202142

Trade elasticities are often needed in applied country work for various purposes and this paper describes a method for estimating import demand and export supply elasticities withoutusing econometrics. The paper reports empirical estimates of these elasticities for a large number of low, middle, and upper income countries. One task for which trade elasticities are needed is in developing exchange rate assessments and this paper shows how the estimated elasticities can be used for this purpose.

Elasticities In International Agricultural Trade

Elasticities In International Agricultural Trade
Author: Colin Carter
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 316
Release: 2019-04-24
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0429702051

This book addresses a number of issues related to the estimation and application of elasticities in international agricultural trade. It is the outgrowth of renewed interest by researchers, traders, and others in quantifying those factors that affect international trade of agricultural products.

The Global Trade Slowdown

The Global Trade Slowdown
Author: Cristina Constantinescu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2015-01-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498399134

This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.