Estimating Sri Lankas Potential Output
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Author | : Ding Ding |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 16 |
Release | : 2014-03-11 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484333934 |
In this paper we present various techniques to estimate Sri Lanka’s potential output and output gap, including statistical and model-based approaches. Compared to conventional statistical filters that rely exclusively on information in a single series, the model-based approaches allow potential output estimates to incorporate information contained in observable data series including inflation, actual output, unemployment and capacity utilization. The estimation results suggest that Sri Lanka’s potential output has risen slightly in the last few years.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 66 |
Release | : 2013-05-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484305183 |
The paper discusses the economic developments and policies in Sri Lanka in recent years. Substantial adjustments in energy prices and operational and financial reforms have helped to improve the performance of state owned enterprises (SOEs) and have reduced the burden on the budget and the banking system. Despite challenging global and domestic market conditions, overall soundness of the financial sector has improved with higher levels of capital, liquidity, and healthy earnings. The Sri Lankan economy is expected to return to a high growth trajectory, though conditional on recovery in external demand.
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 86 |
Release | : 2005-09-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451972547 |
This Selected Issues paper on Sri Lanka reviews several issues that highlight both Sri Lanka’s accomplishments and their policy constraints amidst a protracted period of civil conflict and political instability. High intermediation costs have held back development of the financial sector and could also frustrate Sri Lanka’s quest for higher growth. The main constraints to achieving higher growth include the civil conflict, political instability, high fiscal deficits and inflation, and underdeveloped financial markets.
Author | : S. Rajcoomar |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 294 |
Release | : 1996-05-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781557755797 |
This book, by a staff team in the IMF Institute, contains a series of workshops that introduce the process of formulating a hypothetical macroeconomic and structural adjustment program, which is a central element in the financial programming courses offered by the IMF Institute. In addition to elaborating key concepts for the four major sectoral accounts, the workshops are designed to allow the development of a step by step reference scenario for Sri Lanka.
Author | : Asian Development Bank |
Publisher | : Asian Development Bank |
Total Pages | : 593 |
Release | : 2016-03-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9292573861 |
The annual Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic performance in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Global headwinds notwithstanding, developing Asia will continue to contribute 60% of world growth. Modest recovery in Southeast Asia and sustained growth in India will partly offset continued moderation in the People's Republic of China and associated spillover into neighboring economies. Risks to the growth outlook tilt to the downside: future US interest rate hikes that may intensify global financial volatility, a sharper-than-forecast growth slowdown in the People's Republic of China that would hurt regional exports and growth, emerging producer price deflation that may undermine growth in some economies, tepid prices for oil and other commodities, and El Niño. This edition highlights the need to invigorate developing Asia's potential growth, whose decline since its 2007 peak explains much of the region's growth slowdown since the global financial crisis. To ensure a healthy future for potential growth, Asia must employ the full range of policy responses to augment labor supply, improve labor productivity, enhance institutional quality, and maintain macroeconomic stability.
Author | : Rahul Anand |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 30 |
Release | : 2011-04-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1455226076 |
This paper develops a practical model-based forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS) to support a transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime in Sri Lanka. The FPAS model provides a relatively good forecast for inflation and a framework to evaluate policy trade-offs. The model simulations suggest that an open-economy inflation targeting rule can reduce macroeconomic volatility and anchor inflationary expectations given the size and type of shocks faced by the economy. Sri Lanka could aim to target a broad inflation range initially due to its susceptibility supply-side shocks while enhancing exchange rate flexibility and strengthening the effectiveness of monetary policy in the transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime.
Author | : World Bank |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 134 |
Release | : 2020-10-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464816409 |
The COVID-19 pandemic, which is still impacting South Asia, has temporarily brought the region to a near standstill. Governments proactively stabilized activity through monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and supportive financial regulation, but the situation is fragile amid weak buffers and exhausted policy tools. South Asia’s GDP is expected to contract 7.7 percent this year, by far the largest decline on record, but uncertainty around the forecast is substantial. The informal economy in South Asia has been hit hard. Many unorganized workers, self-employed people and microenterprises have experienced a large drop in earnings as the service sectors that were affected most by the lockdowns are dominated by informality. Informal workers and firms tend to have inadequate mechanisms for coping with short-term demand and supply interruptions due to limited savings and constrained access to finance. While the poor have suffered severely during the crisis, many informal workers in the middle of the income distribution have experienced the greatest drop in earnings. Most of them are not covered by social insurance. The crisis lays bare complicated structural problems in the informal sector that need to be addressed.
Author | : Ratan Khasnabis |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 260 |
Release | : 2014-03-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 8132217950 |
This volume’s primary contribution to the field of Economics is that it addresses the issue of inter-linkages between money, finance and macroeconomics with a broad analytical perspective that has commonality with the Post-Keynesians. In an attempt to assess the consequences of economic reforms and the fallout of the global financial crisis on India and the world around, the book argues that with the onset of the crisis, as in most advanced economies, debates and discussions in India have been concerned with three main issues: monetary policy and asset prices, financial stability, and macro-prudential regulation. Three related issues which are also considered important in the Indian context are – rule vs. principle-based supervision, integrated financial supervision, and regulatory and supervisory independence. The book argues that the crisis highlighted the inadequacies of macro-prudential regulatory structure which mainly addresses idiosyncratic risks specific to individual financial institutions. The crisis precipitated an extensive debate on the role of national regulatory and supervisory authorities in crisis prevention and crisis management via macro-prudential regulations which involves a general equilibrium approach to regulation aiming at safeguarding the financial system as a whole. The book then argues that the crisis led to a paradigm shift in macroeconomic theory and policy. This shift has been categorized into four specific areas: monetary policy, financial regulation, corporate governance, and globalization. The book analyses how the characteristics of each of these four categories have changed from the pre-crisis to the post-crisis situation. The book also delves into the phenomenon of rising global commodity prices post-crisis. The book also deals with an analysis of the impact of this crisis on employment in the US economy, by simulating a macroeconomic model developed by the Cambridge Department of Applied Economics in the 1980s.
Author | : Prema-chandra Athukorala |
Publisher | : Asian Development Bank |
Total Pages | : 291 |
Release | : 2017-10-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9292579746 |
This is a pivotal period in Sri Lanka's economic development. The end of conflict opens a door for accelerated economic growth and poverty reduction. Reform is needed to regain momentum because fiscal imbalances and rising public debt could jeopardize macroeconomic stability. The economy would benefit from significant trade and commercial policy reform. The labor market suffers from sluggish growth of formal sector employment and from skills mismatches, which can be addressed by changes in education policy and systems. The book analyzes these and related critical constraints on the Sri Lankan economy, and proposes a set of policy reforms that would lay the foundations for more rapid and inclusive development.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 122 |
Release | : 2019-11-04 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513518976 |
This paper discusses Sri Lanka’s Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criterion. The Sri Lankan economy is gradually recovering from the impact of the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks. Growth is projected to strengthen to 3.5 percent in 2020, from 2.7 percent in 2019, as tourist arrivals and related activities gradually recover. Sustaining fiscal policy discipline remains critical to strengthen resilience and support growth, as important downside risks remain, amid heightened external and domestic uncertainty. The Sri Lankan economy is gradually recovering, supported by the authorities’ security and policy efforts to mitigate the impact of the attacks. Nevertheless, the economy remains vulnerable to shocks, given high public debt and low external buffers, with higher downside risks since the attacks, amid heightened external and domestic uncertainty. Sustained policy discipline and efforts to rebuild reserve buffers remain critical to address Sri Lanka’s vulnerabilities and strengthen the economy’s resilience, while supporting investment and growth.