Estimates Of Potential Output And The Neutral Rate For The Us Economy
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| Author | : Ali Alichi |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 31 |
| Release | : 2018-07-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484366328 |
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
| Author | : Albert J. Eckstein |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 44 |
| Release | : 1976 |
| Genre | : Economic forecasting |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : International Monetary Fund |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 65 |
| Release | : 1989-10-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451952171 |
The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; estimation integrates wage and price data with “real” and structural data; and third, the methodology encompasses many of the methods found in the literature. The results indicate that potential output growth has recovered somewhat during the early 1980s, but remains below the rapid rates of increase in the late 1960s. The natural rate, after rising during the late 1960s and the 1970s, is found to have declined in the 1980s. The paper concludes with an assessment of medium-term prospects for potential output and-the natural rate.
| Author | : Salma Ahmed |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2023 |
| Genre | : Interest rates |
| ISBN | : |
"We present the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth and the US neutral rate of interest. Both estimates serve as key inputs to the analysis in the April 2023 Monetary Policy Report"--Summary, page 1.
| Author | : Albert J. Eckstein |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 1976 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Ali Alichi |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : Industrial productivity |
| ISBN | : 9781513572802 |
The gap between potential and actual output---the output gap---is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. --Abstract.
| Author | : Ali Alichi |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 35 |
| Release | : 2019-02-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484398068 |
This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.
| Author | : George A. Kahn |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Using an Okun's law framework, the analysis here estimates potential growth for the 1990s as measured by both fixed- and chain-weighted GDP. It then decomposes estimated potential growth rates into labor productivity growth (LPG) and labor input growth (LIG) using a regression analysis to separate secular from cyclical changes. It compares estimates of potential output and trend productivity growth for the 1990s with estimates from earlier periods. Results indicate that eliminating the substitution bias associated with fixed-weight measures of real GDP raises estimated potential GDP growth in the 1980s but lowers it in the 1990s. A slowdown in labor force growth, with little or no change in long-term productivity growth, largely accounts for the implied slowdown in potential growth.
| Author | : Albert J. Eckstein |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 28 |
| Release | : 1976 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Fouad Sabry |
| Publisher | : One Billion Knowledgeable |
| Total Pages | : 296 |
| Release | : 2024-04-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
What is Potential Output In economics, potential output refers to the highest level of real gross domestic product that can be sustained over the long term. Actual output happens in real life while potential output shows the level that could be achieved. How you will benefit (I) Insights, and validations about the following topics: Chapter 1: Potential output Chapter 2: Economics Chapter 3: Macroeconomics Chapter 4: Inflation Chapter 5: Full employment Chapter 6: Economic indicator Chapter 7: Net national income Chapter 8: Phillips curve Chapter 9: Deficit spending Chapter 10: Real gross domestic product Chapter 11: Natural rate of unemployment Chapter 12: Taylor rule Chapter 13: Okun's law Chapter 14: Underemployment equilibrium Chapter 15: Neutrality of money Chapter 16: National accounts Chapter 17: Harrod-Domar model Chapter 18: Output gap Chapter 19: NAIRU Chapter 20: Inflation in India Chapter 21: Gross national income (II) Answering the public top questions about potential output. (III) Real world examples for the usage of potential output in many fields. Who this book is for Professionals, undergraduate and graduate students, enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those who want to go beyond basic knowledge or information for any kind of Potential Output.
